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Hoosier

January 15-16 Storm Threat

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but but the AO says it can't cut!

ao.sprd2.gif

With blocking that strong it would be hard to cut especially with the block being in eastern Canada. As buckeye noted the Para Euro has it tracking along the river, I'd buy that much more than cutting.

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I never said it has the best handle. Just the best idea. No other model supports it and it probably won't happen in that way. Looks like a classic AO beginning to spike while the next wave of pacific energy cuts through the lakes.

So why is that the the best handle? Doesn't make much sense to say it has the best handle when it shows a highly complex solution that rarely happens.

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I never said it has the best handle. No other model supports it and it probably won't happen in that way. Looks like a classic AO beginning to spike while the next wave of pacific energy cuts through the lakes.

  

GGEM had the best idea

Actually you did...

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With blocking that strong it would be hard to cut especially with the block being in eastern Canada. As buckeye noted the Para Euro has it tracking along the river, I'd buy that much more than cutting.

 

Well, my post was partially tongue in cheek.  Will have to see what Canada looks like and how much room there is to cut as we get closer.  I'd probably lean against a true cutter that cuts through the lakes and into Canada but we are a good 5 days out so things can be altered with this setup.

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Well, my post was partially tongue in cheek. Will have to see what Canada looks like and how much room there is to cut as we get closer. I'd probably lean against a true cutter that cuts through the lakes and into Canada but we are a good 5 days out so things can be altered with this setup.

True, and my commentary is purely looking at the models right now, if it changes 5 days from now then anything is possible. I would still say it would be hard to shunt out a cold airmass at the surface like what we are expecting over the next few days.

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Hard to believe it will push out this deep of an arctic airmass with fresh snow cover, that setup screams prolonged ice storm.

Agree that the fresh snow pack and this week's artic air mass should keep this from cutting straight north. The 18z gfs is smoking Crack imho. I don't think there will be a semi accurate modeling of this storm until at least Tuesday at the earliest.

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I will follow this new storm with interest but remember that the Jan. 9/10 storm gave me nearly 3 inches of unexpected snow when the low moved farther east than progged by models most of the week.

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Gonna come down to that s/w retrograding around the polar vortex. Essential for that to come down and phase with the southern stream component. It disappears/timing is off and it's suppression city.

 

Not really worried about an upper lakes cutter.

 

 

18z GFS is an illustration in how to come north.

 

I haven't looked at this storm at all, as I was watching the garbage for yesterday. First thing I looked at for this storm was the 18Z GFS....all I could do was :facepalm: when I see it has rain for most of lower Michigan. It's only one model run, right?  :whistle:

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I haven't looked at this storm at all, as I was watching the garbage for yesterday. First thing I looked at for this storm was the 18Z GFS....all I could do was :facepalm: when I see it has rain for most of lower Michigan. It's only one model run, right?  :whistle:

 

After the muddied and disjointed way it handled today's storm in the same time-frame, I'm not too concerned about any particular solution the GFS is spitting out. Just need to focus on trends.

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I haven't looked at this storm at all, as I was watching the garbage for yesterday. First thing I looked at for this storm was the 18Z GFS....all I could do was :facepalm: when I see it has rain for most of lower Michigan. It's only one model run, right?  :whistle:

 

It's only one run, and it changes over and we get some snow.

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I highly doubt this system will cut. Snow cover is increasing and there will a large reservoir of cold for this system to work with. An west to east track is most likely imo.

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I highly doubt this system will cut. Snow cover is increasing and there will a large reservoir of cold for this system to work with. An west to east track is most likely imo.

it'd be nice if we saw a bowling ball scenario been awhile since we've seen one.

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it'd be nice if we saw a bowling ball scenario been awhile since we've seen one.

 

That's what I would love to see. I think if anything the storm will trend south a bit and this area might actually be on the northern fringe of it.

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00z GFS is going to be north and not good for most.

 

It was north at this time range with the last storm so I guess we can hope for that again.

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00z GFS is going to be north and not good for most.

 

It was north at this time range with the last storm so I guess we can hope for that again.

 

Seems too aggressive given there's a stationary "50/50" type low downstream but it does turn the s/w neg tilt pretty quickly so I guess it's possible.

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00z GFS is going to be north and not good for most.

 

It was north at this time range with the last storm so I guess we can hope for that again.

I'd really be shocked if it dislodged this air mass that fast. Crazier things have happened but to go from -15 to near 0 at 850mb from hour 72 to 96 with just 25kts of advection at 850, just seems a bit unrealistic.

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El Nino influence? ..

 

All I can think of is, isn't this a great pattern for East Coast snowstorms?

I can understand the strong southern stream, but that should take it further east.

 

The EURO and JMA camp makes sense.

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Yea stick a fork in this one. Trends have been way too much to not get concerned.

What are you talking about, what trends? Two GFS runs that don't make much sense?

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What are you talking about, what trends? Two GFS runs that don't make much sense?

The gem just came on board. Wouldn't surprise me if the euro did the same.

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s/w quickly goes negative tilt on the GFS as it emerges into the Plains.  You would need a better block to force it south in that scenario IF that's what happens.

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