Hvward Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 With 3 tornado warnings this morning at 8am across the southeast that span for the AR/MO border to the coast of NC... I think this event deserves its own thread. Given the high horizontal and vertical shear values in place, it wont take much to get these storms rotating with powerful dynamics lurking in the 0-1km zone. Be safe and weather ready if you are in the south today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 SPC has added a moderate risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Also put out a MD for coastal NC, they didnt sound too impressed though...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Cell SE of Mobile has a broad rotation thats trying to tighten up....could produce a strong tornado if it does put down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 Cell SE of Mobile has a broad rotation thats trying to tighten up....could produce a strong tornado if it does put down...Yep you can see the horizontal shear on radar in front moving N as the storm continues to pull right and head ENE. Very impressive for 8:30am on December 23rd. Also a major spike in lightning over the past 5 minutes near the center of the meso. All signs of strengthening to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 sucks I gotta go to bed and miss tracking these storms.....night shift sucks lol.....starting to wonder if I need to stay up that tornadic cell is moving in my direction if it maintains it could get kinda close.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Tornado warning for Duplin county until 9am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 sucks I gotta go to bed and miss tracking these storms.....night shift sucks lol.....starting to wonder if I need to stay up that tornadic cell is moving in my direction if it maintains it could get kinda close.... It doesn't want to die that is for sure. Circulation has improved on the most recent scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 cell over duplin looks to be a threat to me in western pitt county if it holds together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 The cells that are approaching Hattiesburg bear watching due to the environment they are in. Good inflow approaching from the south, these could take on supercell structure shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Gona need a new warnng on that Duplin cell soon, Kenansville over to Warsaw getting hammered right now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 My thoughts from last night in the other thread still hold and everything appears to be on track for a rather significant severe weather day. I was a bit surprised to see NC with a tornado warned storm already this morning, but that shows us how dynamic this system is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 "Practically Perfect" Forecasts (PPFs) resemble a forecast that is consistent with what a forecaster would provide given perfect knowledge of the event beforehand. The PPFs shown below use the filtered real-time SPC storm reports located here and are updated every 15 minutes. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/RTIME/PPF_realtime.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Looks like a good line of storms moving east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Highest Helicity values I'm seeing is limited to N MS, eastern and Central TN...lines up with highest tor risk by SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2036NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1058 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NERN LA...NRN MS...WEST TNCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELYVALID 231658Z - 231900ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENTSUMMARY...TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANTRISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCHWILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDSSLOWLY DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN AR AND ADJACENT PARTS OFTN/MS/LA...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE TRANSPORTINGMID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SO FAR...DEEPCONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED ALONG A SURFACECONVERGENCE AXIS OVER NORTHERN LA. MULTIPLE CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGESTTHIS WILL BE THE GENERATION ZONE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN THENEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND REGIONAL VAD PROFILES SHOWSUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR THAT WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN WITHTIME. STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE A CONCERN IF DISCRETE STORMS CANMAINTAIN INTENSITY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A TORNADO WATCHWILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...HART/GRAMS.. 12/23/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 PDS Watch out! URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDTORNADO WATCH NUMBER 559NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1155 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OFSOUTHEAST ARKANSASFAR NORTHEAST LOUISIANANORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPIWESTERN TENNESSEE* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL800 PM CST....THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELYSCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTSTO 75 MPH POSSIBLEISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLESUMMARY...ONGOING SEVERE STORMS EAST OF LITTLE ROCK SHOULD INTENSIFYTHROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING SOUTHWARDACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS REGION. ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE TOLONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDSAS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTEMILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OFDYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 50 MILES EAST OF MONROE LOUISIANA. FOR ACOMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINEUPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FORTORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCHAREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FORTHREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTSAND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.&&OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 557...WW 558...AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAILSURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACEWIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045....GRAMS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGM Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 pds tornado watch is out for north ms and west tn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 Yeah I am thinking we see a long track tornado cross the MS/TN border around 5-7pm today. Maybe it tracks near Selmer, TN out of MS.. Short range models have been insistent on bringing a cell with 600+s2/r2 helicity across that area later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN RICHLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... NORTH CENTRAL LEXINGTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 245 PM EST * AT 205 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO AS WELL AS DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THESE DANGEROUS STORMS WERE LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF IRMO...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WINNSBORO...BLYTHEWOOD...CHAPIN...RIDGEWAY...PEAK...WINNSBORO MILLS AND LAKE MURRAY OF RICHLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Tornado warning for Lexington, Richland, Fairfield Counties in SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Stay safe guys. Shawn don't go chasing like last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Stay safe guys. Shawn don't go chasing like last time. Lol, Not in this rain wrapped mess. The cell turned more into a wind-threat.. it was a quick spinup anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 VALID 231921Z - 232045Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...A DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF BROKEN CONVECTION MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS CNTRL SC...WITH THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE GENERALLY POOR ACROSS THE MCD AREA...PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROMOTING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THE VWP FROM KCAE SHOWS VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND STRONG SWLY WINDS FROM 1-9 KM...WITH EFFECTIVE SRH ESTIMATED BY LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS FROM 125-225 M2/S2. THIS COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE LINEAR STORM MODE THUS FAR...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH A BRIEF TORNADO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE ALSO POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Didn't expect that here. I thought all the rain today would keep the severe stuff from forming this afternoon and evening. Well, if it's like it has been all year, it still will. Seems to be the case all year when there has been talk of severe storms in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Pretty good looking line of storms from Charlotte to Columbia to West of Savannah. Will be watching it closely as it pivots East and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 19Z HRRR wants to get some sporadic cells into the Midlands of SC especially worse ones after midnight. Not the best soundings for big tornadoes, but possibility of some to weaker ones to spin up. Maybe Wind damage is the main threat too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Cell SE of Jackson, MS should go TW'd soon. Might be the first real candidate of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The SPC update looks like the Michigan Mitten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Cell SE of Jackson, MS should go TW'd soon. Might be the first real candidate of the day Good call... 230 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN SIMPSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... SMITH COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...* UNTIL 330 PM CST* AT 230 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SHIVERS...OR NEAR PINOLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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