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December 23-24 Severe Weather Threat


Hvward

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Looks like there isn't as much a severe threat today. Of course, there's the flooding concerns that are ongoing and still to come.

 

mcd0692.gif

 MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0692NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1113 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL VIRGINIA TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA  CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE  VALID 241613Z - 242200Z SUMMARY...TRAINING RAINS AND A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL PERSISTOVER CNTRL VIRGINIA...EXTENDING TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA INTO THEAFTERNOON. HOURLY RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH 6HOUR TOTALS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z. DISCUSSION...MORNING RAOBS AND GPS SITES SHOWED PRECIPITALBE WATERVALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIABORDER TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WHICH ARE RECORD OR NEAR RECORDVALUES FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. 850-700 MB FLOW OF 50-60 KTSACROSS VIRGINIA PER RECENT VAD WIND PLOTS IS TRANSPORTING DEEPMOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THECIRA LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS THAT THE PLUME OFMOISTURE HAS A DIRECT CONNECTION TO THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC INTHE MID-UPPER LEVELS...OFTEN PRESENT DURING SIGNFICANT FLASH FLOODEVENTS. CONFLUENT FLOW WAS NOTED AT 850 MB ACROSS THE MPD THREAT AREA ANDBROAD DIFFLUENCE WAS NOTED ALOFT...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A 170+ KTJET CORE LOCATED OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST. WHILE RECENT RUNS OFTHE RAP HAVE BEEN UNDERDOING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOWBY UP TO 10 KTS...THE RAP FORECASTS THE GREATEST 850-700 MBMOISTURE TO STREAM NEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN VIRGINIA INTO THEAFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW.VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAD INDICATED A FEW BREAKS IN OTHERWISETHICK CLOUD COVER OVER SERN VIRGINIA WHICH SHOULD HELP TO MAXIMIZEINSTABILITY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA INTO THE AFTERNOON.GIVEN THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE INPLACE...TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES OF 1 TO 1.5IN/HR APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH FLASH FLOODGUIDANCE AS LOW AS 0.5 IN/HR AND 1.0 IN/3 HRS...FLASH FLOODING ISEXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
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New warning

TORNADO WARNING FOR...  NORTHWESTERN BIBB COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA...  SOUTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA...  CENTRAL JONES COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA...* UNTIL 245 PM EST* AT 203 PM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAYNE CITY...OR 10 MILES  NORTHWEST OF MACON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.  HAZARD...TORNADO.  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0699 (Issued at 458 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 )   MPD Selection                

 

mcd0699.gif

 MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0699NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD458 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS/AL BORDER...NEWD INTO NRN MS...NRNAL...NWRN GA...SERN TN  CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY  VALID 252158Z - 260300Z SUMMARY...SIGNIFICANT...WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TOCONTINUE THROUGH 03Z FOR N-CNTRL ALABAMA WITH SIGNIFICANT FLASHFLOOD THREATS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO CNTRL LOUISIANA AND NORTHEASTTO SRN TENNESSEE. DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS HAVESHOWN WHAT HAD BEEN A NEARLY STATIONARY AXIS OF HEAVYRAINFALL...EXTENDING FROM NRN MISSISSIPPI TO NWRN GEORGIA...HASSTARTED TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTH. MEANWHILE...TRAINING AXES OFTHUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CNTRL-NRN LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI BORDERHAVE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF ESTIMATED MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-1500J/KG...PER RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE. A CORRIDOR OF 30-40 KTFLOW IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...CONFIRMED WITH VAD WIND PROFILEDATA...HAS BEEN ORIGINATING IN CNTRL LOUISIANA AND TRANSPORTINGHIGHLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH. A SLOWLY SWD SINKING COLD POOL...STRETCHING FROM N-CNTRL LOUISIANAINTO NRN ALABAMA HAS ALLOWED FOR THE RECENT SWD MOVEMENT OF HEAVYRAIN...WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BECOME RATHERROBUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO LOUISIANA AND S-CNTRLMISSISSIPPI. AN 850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUX MAXIMUM WILL CONTINUEOVER THE NEXT 5-6 HOURS...VIA RAP GUIDANCE...FROM LOUISIANA INTOMISSISSIPPI...HELPING TO REFOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SOUTH INTOCNTRL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA THROUGH 00Z. THEREFORE...THEORIENTATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL ADJUST...EXTENDING FROMSOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. 3-5 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BEPOSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE N-CNTRL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMABORDER...A BIT SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM EARLIER THISAFTERNOON.
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I've seen power flashes on the Red Mountain webcams live feed near West Homewood/Oxmoor Valley. Also several reports of damage to homes along Jefferson Avenue in the Powderly neighborhood of the City of Birmingham. The Powderly neighborhood is in southwest portion of the City.

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EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

511 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

 

ALC073-252345-

/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-151225T2345Z/

JEFFERSON AL-

511 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

 

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CST FOR EAST

CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY...

        

AT 511 PM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN

BIRMINGHAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

525 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  NORTHWESTERN CHILTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...

  SOUTHEASTERN BIBB COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...

 

* UNTIL 600 PM CST

    

* AT 525 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LAWLEY...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

  JEMISON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

 

  HAZARD...TORNADO. 

 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 

 


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

  CALERA...JEMISON...THORSBY...MAPLESVILLE...CHILTON COUNTY MOTOR

  SPORTS PARK...LAWLEY...LAY LAKE...RANDOLPH...CAMPBELL...MINOOKA

  PARK...WAXAHATCHEE CREEK AND TRIO.

 

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 NEAR MILE MARKER 219.

 

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Whoa Snow Hill needs a tornado warning right now......couplet quickly organizing on a strong well defined supercell

 

headed right for Greenville and central Pitt Co, which is  a heavily populated area with 100-150K people.....

 

Fountainguy posted these pics on our little local board, these are pics from Greene Co right outside of Snow Hill of damage that occurred around the time I posted the above....cant say for sure it is tornado damage but obviously some wind damage at least....he is going to forward it to MHX NWS and see what they think....

 

 

 

 

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Sent an email with some radar archives and those damage pics also plotted the pic locals on a map and there is a path of damage.

Got a reply from a met at the MHX office saying they were not informed of any kind of damage and that they will look into it. Said they will get back up with me with their conclusions! Pretty cool personally

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Sent an email with some radar archives and those damage pics also plotted the pic locals on a map and there is a path of damage.

Got a reply from a met at the MHX office saying they were not informed of any kind of damage and that they will look into it. Said they will get back up with me with their conclusions! Pretty cool personally

Good work there! Anxious to hear what they have to say.

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