weatherwiz Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Yes this is 6 days out, however, there are strong signals for a rather potent storm system to develop across the upper Mid-west during the weekend in response to a vigorous trough which will amplify across the central portion of the country. This will allow for some major ridging to develop here in the east later in the weekend and next Monday as well. The most appealing aspect to the potential system right now is the degree of the dynamics that may be involved. The GFS is advertising 500mb winds to be in excess of 100 knots approaching New England early next Monday!!! Once the warm front pushes through the airmass will become unseasonably warm and moist (the GFS is advertising PWAT values as high as 1.3'' next Monday ahead of the cold front!). Given the potential for such a dynamic system and an abundance of warm/moist air ahead of the cold front, the potential will exist for a forced line of low topped convection to develop along/ahead of the cold front. Outside of the potential for some very heavy rains, strong/gusty winds would be possible just ahead of a line if one were to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Anything to break this boring pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 I remember mentioning months ago we'd see more of these threads from Wiz than snow threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME300 PM EST MON NOV 28 2005...THANKSGIVING DAY TORNADO IN PHIPPSBURG CONFIRMED...AFTER SURVEYING DAMAGE FROM THE THANKSGIVING DAY (NOV 24) STORMS INPHIPPSBURG, SAGADAHOC COUNTY, MAINE, THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASDETERMINED THAT DAMAGE WAS CAUSED BY A SMALL TORNADO.THE TORNADO INITIALLY TOUCHED DOWN NEAR SMALL POINT ROAD ABOUT 1 PMAND TRAVELLED NORTH ACROSS HERMIT ISLAND AND THEN ACROSS SMALL POINTHARBOR WHERE THE TORNADO LIFTED OFF THE GROUND. THE TORNADO THENTOUCHED DOWN AGAIN BRIEFLY IN A WOODED AREA OFF WEST POINT ROADBEFORE DISSIPATING.ALTHOUGH THE DAMAGE WAS DISCONTINUOUS...THE OVERALL PATH LENGTH OFDAMAGE WAS ABOUT TWO MILES WITH A MAXIMUM WIDTH OF ABOUT 30 YARDS.THE TORNADO INTENSITY WAS CLASSIFIED AS F1 ON THE FUJITA SCALE.MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 100 MPH AND NEAR SMALLPOINT ROAD WHERE THE GREATEST DAMAGE OCCURRED. THE TORNADO KNOCKEDOVER NUMEROUS TREES AND DAMAGED OR DESTROYED SEVERAL BUILDINGS.SEVERAL SUMMER HOMES WERE BLOWN OFF THEIR FOUNDATIONS.MAINE AVERAGES ABOUT TWO TORNADOES A YEAR. THIS IS THE SECONDCONFIRMED TORNADO IN MAINE FOR 2005. THE FIRST CONFIRMED TORNADOOCCURRED OVER NORTH TWIN LAKE IN PENOBSCOT COUNTY ON AUGUST 1.JENSENIUSNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICEGRAY, MAINE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Yes this is 6 days out, however, there are strong signals for a rather potent storm system to develop across the upper Mid-west during the weekend in response to a vigorous trough which will amplify across the central portion of the country. This will allow for some major ridging to develop here in the east later in the weekend and next Monday as well. The most appealing aspect to the potential system right now is the degree of the dynamics that may be involved. The GFS is advertising 500mb winds to be in excess of 100 knots approaching New England early next Monday!!! Once the warm front pushes through the airmass will become unseasonably warm and moist (the GFS is advertising PWAT values as high as 1.3'' next Monday ahead of the cold front!). Given the potential for such a dynamic system and an abundance of warm/moist air ahead of the cold front, the potential will exist for a forced line of low topped convection to develop along/ahead of the cold front. Outside of the potential for some very heavy rains, strong/gusty winds would be possible just ahead of a line if one were to develop. Show me some CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 8, 2015 Author Share Posted December 8, 2015 Show me some CAPE We may be able to muster up a few hundred joules or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 300 PM EST MON NOV 28 2005 ...THANKSGIVING DAY TORNADO IN PHIPPSBURG CONFIRMED... AFTER SURVEYING DAMAGE FROM THE THANKSGIVING DAY (NOV 24) STORMS IN PHIPPSBURG, SAGADAHOC COUNTY, MAINE, THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETERMINED THAT DAMAGE WAS CAUSED BY A SMALL TORNADO. THE TORNADO INITIALLY TOUCHED DOWN NEAR SMALL POINT ROAD ABOUT 1 PM AND TRAVELLED NORTH ACROSS HERMIT ISLAND AND THEN ACROSS SMALL POINT HARBOR WHERE THE TORNADO LIFTED OFF THE GROUND. THE TORNADO THEN TOUCHED DOWN AGAIN BRIEFLY IN A WOODED AREA OFF WEST POINT ROAD BEFORE DISSIPATING. ALTHOUGH THE DAMAGE WAS DISCONTINUOUS...THE OVERALL PATH LENGTH OF DAMAGE WAS ABOUT TWO MILES WITH A MAXIMUM WIDTH OF ABOUT 30 YARDS. THE TORNADO INTENSITY WAS CLASSIFIED AS F1 ON THE FUJITA SCALE. MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 100 MPH AND NEAR SMALL POINT ROAD WHERE THE GREATEST DAMAGE OCCURRED. THE TORNADO KNOCKED OVER NUMEROUS TREES AND DAMAGED OR DESTROYED SEVERAL BUILDINGS. SEVERAL SUMMER HOMES WERE BLOWN OFF THEIR FOUNDATIONS. MAINE AVERAGES ABOUT TWO TORNADOES A YEAR. THIS IS THE SECOND CONFIRMED TORNADO IN MAINE FOR 2005. THE FIRST CONFIRMED TORNADO OCCURRED OVER NORTH TWIN LAKE IN PENOBSCOT COUNTY ON AUGUST 1. JENSENIUS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY, MAINE That was cool. I remember seeing the pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 That was cool. I remember seeing the pic. The day shift that day didn't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 We may be able to muster up a few hundred joules or so. GFS showing just a bit of instability with this thing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Nicely written post! Agreed. Could also be a kind of ribbon-echo squall line sinuously wobbling its way east through a Band of frontal rains - goes through you go to blinding rain and gusty winds for about 3 to 5 minutes. Don't need a lot of Cape with this kind of thing it's mostly mechanical forcing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Nicely written post! Agreed. Could also be a kind of ribbon-echo squall line sinuously wobbling its way east through a Band of frontal rains - goes through you go to blinding rain and gusty winds for about 3 to 5 minutes. Don't need a lot of Cape with this kind of thing it's mostly mechanical forcing If areas can manage to get in the right entrance region of the jet that should help enough with the lower chances of CAPE. Best region looks right now from if you split PA in the center and had a north and a south to about central VA stands in that right entrance region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Pouring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ch3nna Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Lighting in nwct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Nice call Wiz. Just off by a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 Nice call Wiz. Just off by a few hours Meh...probably not that great of a call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Had the line come through last night. No lightning that I saw but heavy rains non the less and decent winds as the front passed. Did not for one expect the jet to take on the state that it did with it punching through New England hence the forcing being further north than just CPA. Good call that far out though and if this was summer this would have been a fun one to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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