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Winter 2015-16

Mr Bob

By Mr Bob,
in Tennessee Valley

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

I know I'll be perfectly happy if we can score even just a little something with the cold next week and then have another chance towards the end of the month. Historically, it seems that significant February cold shots are less likely to be totally dry when compared to January Arctic blasts.

 

Totally agree.  And here is something interesting...every time it has turned cold during this winter I have received a trace or more IMBY.  The GL low is a real problem, and I have really grown not to like that feature this winter.  But...both the 12z Euro, GEM, and GFS were really close on the EC.  If they come northwest 200 miles and the GL low is less, some folks in the Valley might be in business.  Also, JB points out that we need to watch for any systems that try to develop as the cold departs. 

 

What we need to be pulling for is for the MJO to get through the unfavorable phases quickly...Maybe, March will hold a surprise.

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John1122

John1122

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Gonna wait on the current big storm to pass before paying too much attention to anything on the models. The GFS is moving it's storm track by 600-800 miles from run to run for the next potential event.

 

The 18z drives a storm it had shown too far out to sea for us directly at a 1036 hp and sends it though middle Tennessee and Central Kentucky before transferring off the coast. 

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ShawnEastTN

ShawnEastTN

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Gonna wait on the current big storm to pass before paying too much attention to anything on the models. The GFS is moving it's storm track by 600-800 miles from run to run for the next potential event.

I agree.  The 18Z GFS of the GL for the 7th - 9th its track and handling when looking at all the features seems to make no sense to me.  To me a Miller A makes more sense than a very late transfer Miller B that the 18Z GFS is showing.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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I agree. The 18Z GFS of the GL for the 7th - 9th its track and handling when looking at all the features seems to make no sense to me. To me a Miller A makes more sense than a very late transfer Miller B that the 18Z GFS is showing.

JB today said that energy would possibly come west even to the point it cuts west of the Apps. There is very little in terms of HP to push it south. Still...a long way to go. Lots of options still on the table. The MA forum has had excellent discussion today regarding the LR outlook and the potential storm in a week.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Posted

Gonna wait on the current big storm to pass before paying too much attention to anything on the models. The GFS is moving it's storm track by 600-800 miles from run to run for the next potential event.

The 18z drives a storm it had shown too far out to sea for us directly at a 1036 hp and sends it though middle Tennessee and Central Kentucky before transferring off the coast.

The biggest thing I am noticing is that the models grab one of two pieces of energy. But no matter which piece is utilized...the GL low messes up the dynamics of the system.
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John1122

John1122

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The biggest thing I am noticing is that the systems grab one of two pieces of energy. But no matter which piece is utilized...the GL low messes up the dynamics of the system.

From what I saw there wasn't a lakes low issue on 18z. There's actually a 1036 hp just north of the lakes and it shoots the low directly at it.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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From what I saw there wasn't a lakes low issue on 18z. There's actually a 1036 hp just north of the lakes and it shoots the low directly at it.

LOL. Ah, nice. The ol' Lakes cutter into a strong high scenario. Thanks for the update. The last of our snow is melting from the north side of the building. Almost two weeks it has been here. Parking lots still have some. Shows how a week of freezing cold prior to the storm will keep it around longer. Maybe we can repeat that next week.

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jdrenken

jdrenken

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I agree.  The 18Z GFS of the GL for the 7th - 9th its track and handling when looking at all the features seems to make no sense to me.  To me a Miller A makes more sense than a very late transfer Miller B that the 18Z GFS is showing.

 

How do you figure?

VST6ipv.png

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ShawnEastTN

ShawnEastTN

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How do you figure?

VST6ipv.png

I wasn't referencing a WPC forecast, I was agreeing with John1122 and referencing the 18Z GFS sending the GL NE into a High.  It made no sense, with the set up the GFS showed for the other players the GL would not go NE into a High.  If all the other features on the 18Z GFS were correct the low would have likely taken a Miller A track, or at the very least a Miller B that transferred early not transfer from PA.  My comments has nothing to do with WPC forecast map for Feb the 8th.

 

Edit:  Maybe you saw GL as Great Lakes in my post.  I was using GL to abbreviate Gulf Low.  If you read it as Great Lakes I can see the confusion.  I apologize.

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ShawnEastTN

ShawnEastTN

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0Z GFS has the storm back as a miller A, but as Carver has been mentioning the Great Lakes/Ontario Low is back instead of strong high pressure.  I believe Carver is on to something with those Lows in that region sort of slow the cold that we need to funnel down in time for the storm and effect steering to some degree.   Either way back to Miller A with almost a perfect track without enough cold to go around.

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1234snow

1234snow

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The 0z GFS was very close to a big time storm for most of us. A little too warm on that run but the moisture is there. I've noticed a trend on the GFS to hang back the lead shortwave more every run. This might lead to a bigger phase and it would pull more cold air in on the backside. Of course this might pull our Miller A more northwestward.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Looks to me like the 6Z GFS keeps it cold for the entire run. What gives? All I read yesterday was complaining about the MJO torching things. Which one is right???????? :axe:

Basically, some really good mets are saying the models do not recognize the strong Pacific flow generated in the tropics. This makes the models are too cold. There are definitely two schools of thought on where this pattern goes. I have said I lean cold for Feb, but am now having a hard time defending that position as my favortite mets are not on board for long term cold. I have heard DT has a good video on FB that may play the other side of this coin. I will watch it today. Heck, somebody could prob find it on FB and post it here. Versus looking at one run I think folks are saying the cold is being pushed back like what has happened this weekend. The MJO phases coming up are highly correlated w warm on the EC. What we really need to hope for is that the MJO is either wrong or passes throught those phases quickly and does not take the tour. Or we need to hope for a SSW to counter but that is tricky.

Also saw this mentioned above, the GL low problem is a concept brought here by Jeff...I am just using what he taught us. That low has been a thorn this winter. I am thinking might originate due to a strong Pacific flow found during Nino winters, but that is a guess.

Anyone have a Euro weeklies update?

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Posted

Just took a look at the Euro weeklies. Weeks 3 and 4 are downright torchy. Not sure that verifies as it seems a bias of the weeklies is to be warm in weeks 3 and 4. But still, a very strong signal for that time period to be warm. Depending if you look at the control or mean, several days are 10+C (control). Seems that model is finally seeing the MJO.

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ShawnEastTN

ShawnEastTN

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Looking at the 12Z looks like our only hope is pieces of energy rotating through the trough with limited moisture.  However with the cold that is advertised it would likely be good ratio snows from those pieces of energy.  Out to 198.

 

Edit: I also, like John think we have to get past this weeks storm before we start to get a better picture of the pattern, but the GFS is getting a little more consistent in a Miller A type storm for the end of the week beginning of next week storm just track seems to be getting less favorable for our region run to run.

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Runman292

Runman292

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Posted

I was going to post a video that David Aldrich posted on Facebook, but the video won't upload on here. You can check out the video on his page, but here are some highlights:

1. The main thing he said is that Winter is not over, and that it is taking a vacation right now, lol. There are still plenty of opportunities to see snow in February and even into early March.

2. He said the next opportunity to see snow as of last night was midweek next week. He does think there will be some accumulating snow (but he doesn't mention amounts).

3. He warns that models that show big amounts of snow ahead of time should be taken with a grain of salt.

4. He briefly mentions that the el nino is constantly changing the pattern and it's the transition periods where we could see a good chance for snow.

5. When asked about the arctic blast that MRX mentioned next week, he said that it will get colder but not any worse than it has been this winter.

Edit: If you want a good laugh, then watch the last minute of the video. Towards the end, he accidentally says that we are under a Winter weather advisory instead of a wind advisory. He does it 3 times and didn't catch himself during the video, lol.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Curious to see the 12Z Canadian for this storm... Waiting...

Edit: CMC seems consistent in a Miller A slightly colder more moisture further west on the CMC but not far enough west.

This far out...I will take that look all day long. (SE forum phrase) Then, GEM even tries to hold back a piece of that storm and it gets entangled w the front behind it @ 156. I think a storm on the EC is looking more like a reality, but will it have enough cold to work with? I think we have a better than 50/50 chance this backs north and west as many storms have done that this winter.
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ShawnEastTN

ShawnEastTN

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This far out...I will take that look all day long. (SE forum phrase) Then, GEM even tries to hold back a piece of that storm and it gets entangled w the front behind it @ 156. I think a storm on the EC is looking more like a reality, but will it have enough cold to work with? I think we have a better than 50/50 chance this backs north and west as many storms have done that this winter.

The NW jog as we get closer to the event does happen often.  Most storms modeled out this far tend to move N and NW of model earlier models.  That's one of the hopes I hang on to.  I guess its good to see CMC remaining consistent in a Miller A, and the GFS albeit not as consistent but seeming to get more consistent with a Miller A also.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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The NW jog as we get closer to the event does happen often.  Most storms modeled out this far tend to move N and NW of model earlier models.  That's one of the hopes I hang on to.  I guess its good to see CMC remaining consistent in a Miller A, and the GFS albeit not as consistent but seeming to get more consistent with a Miller A also.

The GEM out to 174 got crazy! See if you can link that loop. I am watching on wxbell. Link to TT when it updates. I am not sure I have seen that scenario before...would be worth a look if not just for entertainment.

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