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TropicalAnalystwx13

Cat 5 Major Hurricane Patricia

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Per Phil Klotzbach 

And that will most probably get broken at 7PM CDT and probably again at 10PM CDT (55 kts at both times yesterday)

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Yes, and it's a very small system in terms of hurricane winds radius...Still, Puerto Vallarta could see a very rough day if it goes directly over them.

 

Can't resist posting the 22:15Z image...if that it's not a Cat 5, I don't know what is 

 

attachicon.gifavn0.gif

attachicon.gifGOES22302015295tXc9LN.jpg

Raw T is 7.8!! That stupid 1.3T/6hr limit flag is knocking the adjT down to a 6.1. Too bad there is no recon, the 6hr pressure drop maybe coming close to Wilma.

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Raw T is 7.8!! That stupid 1.3T/6hr limit flag is knocking the adjT down to a 6.1. Too bad there is no recon, the 6hr pressure drop maybe coming close to Wilma.

 

It's times like these where the NHC needs to get more active recon from the Air Force.

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Has there ever been one of those in the E Pacific?

Maybe Rick or Linda, but I have no proof

 

130kts at 7PM CDT...that makes it 75kts wind speed increase in 24 hours...and that will likely be broken at 10pm

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Raw T# is at 8.0!

 No doubt there's been at least a 30mb pressure drop since recon left.

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 No doubt there's been at least a 30mb pressure drop since recon left.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure as well. The question is if they'll go with cat 5 in the next advisory, or wait for recon to confirm it

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Maybe Rick or Linda, but I have no proof

 

130kts at 7PM CDT...that makes it 75kts wind speed increase in 24 hours...and that will likely be broken at 10pm

 

Peak 3 hr ADT for Rick was 7.5 per the report and Linda was a 7.5-8.0. Won't be surprised if we surpass the former here.

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Almost a Cat 5 per the National Hurricane Center, I feel it already is, but, oh well.

 

Hurricane PATRICIA Public Advisory Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  
000WTPZ35 KNHC 222347TCPEP5BULLETINHURRICANE PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  11ANWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015700 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE PATRICIA WITH 150-MPH WINDS HEADEDFOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...15.8N 104.8WABOUT 225 MI...360 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICOABOUT 325 MI...520 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICOMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:NoneSUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...* San Blas to Punta San TelmoA Hurricane Watch is in effect for...* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro CardenasA Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro CardenasA Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expectedsomewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed tocompletion.A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions areexpected somewhere within the warning area.A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possiblewithin the watch area.For storm information specific to your area, please monitorproducts issued by your national meteorological service.DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Patricia was locatednear latitude 15.8 North, longitude 104.8 West. Patricia is movingtoward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward thenorth is expected by early Friday, followed by a turn toward thenorth-northeast Friday night. On the forecast track, the core ofPatricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area Fridayafternoon or evening.Satellite images indicate that Patricia has continued to intensifyand maximum sustained winds have reached near 150 mph (240 km/h)with higher gusts. Patricia is a category 4 hurricane on theSaffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Patricia could become acategory 5 hurricane overnight, and is expected to remain anextremely dangerous hurricane through landfall.Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from thecenter and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles(280 km).The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach thehurricane warning area Friday afternoon or evening. Tropical stormconditions are expected to first reach the warning areas by latetonight or early Friday, making outside preparations difficult ordangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should berushed to completion today. Hurricane conditions are possible in thehurricane watch area late Friday.RAINFALL:  Patricia is expected to produce total rainfallaccumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan andGuerrero later today into Saturday. These rains could producelife-threatening flash floods and mud slides.STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to producesignificant coastal flooding near and to the right of where thecenter makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompaniedby large and destructive waves.SURF:  Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portionsof the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestwardduring the next day or so. These swells are likely to causelife-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consultproducts from your local weather office.NEXT ADVISORY-------------Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.$$Forecaster Blake

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Just out of curiosity, what was the record set by Wilma for strengthening over a 24 hour period?

 

Deepened 100 mb.

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I think ADT version 8.2.1 is a little out to lunch at the moment. SSD is currently running version 8.1.4 (same version that was run for Haiyan, by the way), and it's a little more conservative with a raw 7.4, which I'm fine with. The eye is still a little cool, but definitely warming up. It's not quite there yet, but this is going up to the top level of what we've seen in the eastern Pacific. The first storm that comes to mind when I see Patricia currently is Super Typhoon Nuri from last year, and Patricia will probably get about as intense.

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Thanks. Not close to that, but the rate has still been impressive nonetheless.

 

 

Wind speed went from 60kts to 150kts in 24 hours, a 24-hour increase of 90 kts. If the 10 PM advisory goes for a 140kts Patricia, that would be an 85 kts increase, very much in Wilma's ballpark.

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Wind speed went from 60kts to 150kts in 24 hours, a 24-hour increase of 90 kts. If the 10 PM advisory goes for a 140kts Patricia, that would be an 85 kts increase, very much in Wilma's ballpark.

I meant more pressure-wise; we've dropped around 60 mb in the past 24 hours, versus Wilma's nearly 100 mb. Wind-wise, however, it is potentially very close.

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I meant more pressure-wise; we've dropped around 60 mb in the past 24 hours, versus Wilma's nearly 100 mb. Wind-wise, however, it is potentially very close.

Let's see if the eye contracts some more. The reason Wilmas winds were so high was due to the tiny eye

If this thing makes landfall before erc look out Mexico

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Wind speed went from 60kts to 150kts in 24 hours, a 24-hour increase of 90 kts. If the 10 PM advisory goes for a 140kts Patricia, that would be an 85 kts increase, very much in Wilma's ballpark.

I believe a better comparitive storm would be hurricane Linda of the EPAC from 1997.

It had an 81 mb 24 hour decrease in the central pressure and a 90 kt. increase in the MSW. Additionally, the 12 hour data was 54 mb and 55 knots, respectively.

For Wilma, the 24 hour stats are 97 mb and 90 knots. 12 hour data was an astonishing 83 mb and 75 knots. In only a 6 hour period, hurricane Wilma's central pressure dropped a remarkable 54 mb!!

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It doesn't get much more textbook than this:

bd0-lalo.gif

Agreed! Not surprising with the El Nino induced anamously warm water combined with a very favorable upper-level environment. It will be interesting to see if it will officially match or exceed hurricane Linda's super El Nino enhanced 1997 record intensity! It has a shot.

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00z hurricane models initializing at Category 5 intensity with further strengthening over the next 12 hours by more models than not: 

post-533-0-70483900-1445565937_thumb.png

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00z hurricane models initializing at Category 5 intensity with further strengthening over the next 12 hours by more models than not:

ep202015_inten.png

Baring an ERC, which could occur at any time, I suspect this will make a run at the aforementioned record EPAC intensity established by Linda in 1997.

Edit: The 12 hour window, suggested by the models for continued intensification, corresponds well with the current wind shear analysis whereby Patricia will be moving into a less favorable upper-level environment beyond that time frame.

post-6681-0-69067100-1445567573_thumb.gi

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...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE PATRICIA TURNING TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...

10:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 22
Location: 16.2°N 105.1°W
Moving: NNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 924 mb
Max sustained: 160 mph

 

HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
1000 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

 

Patricia continues to explosively intensify, with the eye becoming
warmer and better defined, along with a solid ring of very cold -90C
cloud tops in the eyewall.  Subjective and objective Dvorak
estimates support an initial wind speed of 140 kt, and an An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance unit aircraft is en route to check the
intensity of the hurricane. Patricia is estimated to have
intensified 85 kt in the past 24 hours, from a tropical storm to a
category 5 hurricane during that time.  This is a remarkable feat,
with only Linda of 1997 intensifying at this rate in the satellite
era.  The hurricane could strengthen a little more before increasing
southwesterly shear causes Patricia to weaken some by Friday
afternoon, although it should remain an extremely dangerous
hurricane through landfall.  The latest forecast is close to the
previous NHC prediction, updated for the higher initial wind speed.
After landfall, the hurricane should rapidly weaken over the high
terrain and dissipate by 48 hours over the Sierra Madre mountains.

The hurricane continues to turn more poleward and slow down, with an
initial motion estimate of 330/9.  The track forecast reasoning
remains unchanged with Patricia expected to turn northward during
the next 12 hours as it moves around the periphery of a mid-level
high centered over the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane is then
forecast to accelerate north-northeastward between the high and an
amplifying trough over northwestern Mexico.  The latest NHC
forecast is close to the previous one, nudged a bit to the east to
better reflect the latest consensus guidance.

 

Model guidance continues to suggest that the mid-level remnants and
moisture from Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area of
low pressure that forms over south Texas or the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico this weekend. This moisture could contribute to a major
rainfall event already ongoing across portions of Texas. For more
information, please refer to products from your local National
Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

 

KEY MESSAGES:

 

1.  Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations
to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be
completed as tropical storm conditions will begin to affect
the warning area overnight or early Friday.

 

2.  In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero beginning
late tonight and continuing into Saturday.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  23/0300Z 16.2N 105.1W  140 KT 160 MPH
12H  23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W  145 KT 165 MPH
24H  24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W  125 KT 145 MPH...ON THE COAST
36H  24/1200Z 22.5N 103.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
48H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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