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jrodd321

Tropical Storm Joaquin Impact/Thoughts/Discussion

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Could the OTS solution be maybe that the front Friday is not sliding back as far north as they first though helping to pick up the storm? Cause it looks like the rain totals for Friday have dropped significantly for this area.

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Newest GFDL and HWRF are in and both are direct hits into the East Coast (DelMarVa and central NC Coast respectively). 

 

Not sure what to believe at this point.....the actual hurricane models or globals?

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I'm guessing he disagrees with the part of your quoted post that he bolded.

 

fish storm indeed (MA north)

 

euro for the win is looking more likely with each cycle.If it holds it will be interesting to see what that means for the rest of the flock. 1 vs all others. Hunch is this will be more then a "tweak" issue.

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fish storm indeed (MA north)

euro for the win is looking more likely with each cycle.If it holds it will be interesting to see what that means for the rest of the flock. 1 vs all others. Hunch is this will be more then a "tweak" issue.

I dont believe its the Euro vs the world anymore. It has gained some support overnight. Actually a respectable amount of support.

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I feel as if we may have dodged a bullet.  As it is, I (we)  am under a coastal flood warning for an 8.5' tide today and tomorrow.  That's 0.4' short of Sandy for Cape May.  A DelMarVa hit would have been catastrophic.

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Very interesting to see other models still with a NC landfall while others moved west.  Will they all start caving to the Euro today? How will I get any work done today? it's end of month!

 

I too hope this storm stays ots, keeps our coast in tact, they have enough to deal within the next 24-36 hrs with current forecast.

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I dont believe its the Euro vs the world anymore. It has gained some support overnight. Actually a respectable amount of support.

Sure as the window closes and data input increases. There is a gap without a doubt.

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Anyone think this takes the middle of the road and grazes the NJ Coast ala Gloria? 

 

Or is this more all or nothing, ie, a direct landfall somehwhere around OBX or simply OTS with no middle ground really?

 

Would love to hear your thoughts guys.

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Very interesting to see other models still with a NC landfall while others moved west. Will they all start caving to the Euro today? How will I get any work done today? it's end of month!

I too hope this storm stays ots, keeps our coast in tact, they have enough to deal within the next 24-36 hrs with current forecast.

Believe me I hope OTS as well. I'm still reminded of sandy as I go about daily life in SoMoCo. Heck looking out my window I see the remnants.

Cape may was south of sandy.....a southern Delmarva landfall would be very bad for the cape without a doubt. I have gone through many nor'easters on cape may point.and explored the flooding from the wildwood's to cape may during events.

The rainfall in GA SC and NC is going to be crazy even when you take a blend of the models.

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Believe me I hope OTS as well. I'm still reminded of sandy as I go about daily life in SoMoCo. Heck looking out my window I see the remnants.

Cape may was south of sandy.....a southern Delmarva landfall would be very bad for the cape without a doubt. I have gone through many nor'easters on cape may point.and explored the flooding from the wildwood's to cape may during events.

The rainfall in GA SC and NC is going to be crazy even when you take a blend of the models.

Im praying for OTS here. I have family in Cape May (Town Bank right along the Delaware Bay) and will actually be down there this weekend myself, unless of course this beast heads directly our way, then I'm headed for the hills. As a side note for anyone who knows the bayside beaches, the surf was up to the dunes this week already. Hampered my fishing efforts....and the fishing was red hot for a while too. Hate to think what a track up the mouth of the Delaware Bay would do. And North Wildwood beaches are already gone. Lots of pics on FB for those interested. High tides this week all the way up to the dunes and big cliffs to get onto the beach.

 

Be safe everyone....going to be a long weekend!

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Im praying for OTS here. I have family in Cape May (Town Bank right along the Delaware Bay) and will actually be down there this weekend myself, unless of course this beast heads directly our way, then I'm headed for the hills. As a side note for anyone who knows the bayside beaches, the surf was up to the dunes this week already. Hampered my fishing efforts....and the fishing was red hot for a while too. Hate to think what a track up the mouth of the Delaware Bay would do. And North Wildwood beaches are already gone. Lots of pics on FB for those interested. High tides this week all the way up to the dunes and big cliffs to get onto the beach.

Be safe everyone....going to be a long weekend!

Wow, those are steep beaches on the bayside too, at least in North Cape May.

There is a major dredging project going on in the back bay of Avalon, I'm hoping the OTS solution verifies so the project isn't wrecked (along with our house).

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Believe me I hope OTS as well. I'm still reminded of sandy as I go about daily life in SoMoCo. Heck looking out my window I see the remnants.

 

Living right across from Montco, I saw Sandy finish off 3 of the remaining 4 huge street trees that Irene didn't take out the year before (by pancaking 6 of the original 10 down the line). The final one fell after a 2014 ice storm. Irene hit when we had wet antecedent conditions, although Irene followed a wettest month on record, where we have had relatively dry save the current wet period.

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Ukmet caved as well. Now watch the Euro show landfall. Joking obviously...looks like game, set, match on this one. Glad it isnt January!

Sent from my LG-V410

Just wait ... 

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What are we waiting for?

Oh, we in the CPA forum are used to this game. One day the pattern will flip and instead of cashing in on every chance imaginable you guys will feel the wrath of model scorn like us. :)

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Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (210
km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is now a category 4 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional
strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours
, with some
fluctuations in intensity possible Friday night and Saturday.

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Living right across from Montco, I saw Sandy finish off 3 of the remaining 4 huge street trees that Irene didn't take out the year before (by pancaking 6 of the original 10 down the line). The final one fell after a 2014 ice storm. Irene hit when we had wet antecedent conditions, although Irene followed a wettest month on record, where we have had relatively dry save the current wet period.

 

I still have 4 4-foot circumference oaks I'm cutting up for firewood from Sandy. The root balls are still intact. I see them everyday I leave for work.  

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