Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

9/30-10/5 Joaquin-Trough Interaction-DISCUSSION/OBS


bluewave

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 845
  • Created
  • Last Reply

What's that cheap jab supposed to mean? Stay on topic.

There is no way a major hurricane is going to develop from TD 11 and make landfall on the NJ coast. The system is already under 25 knots of shear and conditions will be only slightly favorable for intensification.

Sent from my SM-G925V

It wasn't a cheap jab, it was meant to be a joke, but I guess you didn't catch my sense of humor.

 

I think we all realize how unlikely that would be to verify. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Enhanced rain from the tropical system up and down the east coast...if true and that's a big if will be some flooding issues

The PRE goes into the Carolinas and VA, at least through day 5, but the TC is still coming North. 

 

BTW, the 12z Euro takes it down to 984mb by Saturday morning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is going to be an extremely hard forecast for the models with all these moving parts. Don't be surprised if the solution changes drastically once again.

And I apologize Iso. Didn't catch the sense of humor at first.

Sent from my SM-G925V

No problem, you're a very knowledgeable poster. 

 

I am a bit hesitant to bite on this myself, but seeing such a strong signal on the GEFS is increasing confidence. 

 

gfs-ens_apcpna7d_eus_1.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro is 8-10 inches of rain for the area, parts of the mid Atlantic get 12+

Obviously this is a very extreme run

 

 

Fits well with the recent progression of extended dry periods to end with a deluge and maybe then some.  Looks like Thu may be the only dry day over the next 6.  Lots of rainouts...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fits well with the recent progression of extended dry periods to end with a deluge and maybe then some. Looks like Thu may be the only dry day over the next 6. Lots of rainouts...

Also we would have issues with costal flooding at strong winds along the coast... The euro at 12z is pretty strong

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...