AppsRunner Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 My numbers as well. MOS is doing well so far, so why not stick with it? If you can't beat 'em, join 'em! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 It looks like I'm the only one going with a colder forecast... 65/48/17/0 I can see a low in the fifties verifying, but how are you guys predicting your high? I only use current and past observations, biases, and the GFS/USL MOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 66/49/14/0 I definitely could see the high being a bit higher if they really break out into at least a BKN sky early in the day. For the low it was unclear to me whether or not it'd be a 06z low tomorrow night or a low around 12z tomorrow morning. Ended up deciding clouds/wind would prevent it from dropping much tonight and that they'd have a good chance to drop quickly tomorrow night with clear skies and perhaps calmer conditions. For the wind, I've been too high each day so I figured take the under on the USL. Did note the 20 kt+ LLJ during the mid-morning which could allow them to sneak in something above 15 knots. I'd actually be fascinated to see a convective shower bring down something near 20 knots even if it did ruin my day. As for precip, it didn't seem like a great enough chance to warrant the risk but I thought the same thing on Tuesday and got burned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 16, 2015 Author Share Posted October 16, 2015 Ahh...looks like the storms and in all likelihood winds missed by about 10 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 With the southwesterlies, I'm not surprised the temperatures came up overnight... but all the way to 61F at 7AM? That surprises me. In any case, we have one more shot at a lower low this evening, though I'm not counting on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 16, 2015 Author Share Posted October 16, 2015 I can somehow break even or beat consensus be a little today if the winds got to 14+ and my temp forecast works out. A tad nervous about it getting below 51 before 6z...we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I can somehow break even or beat consensus be a little today if the winds got to 14+ and my temp forecast works out. A tad nervous about it getting below 51 before 6z...we shall see. Even without storms they just had 17G23. That surprised me a little but this was the modeled time of peak winds at least during daylight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Ooops! I didn't pay attention to the time stamp on the MOS, otherwise I'd be in decent shape. Lesson learned!!! Winds have already exceeded 14 knots... Up to 15 knots now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 16, 2015 Author Share Posted October 16, 2015 Climo has 65/52/18/0 thus far. Actually moves me up a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Already down to a 50 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 17, 2015 Author Share Posted October 17, 2015 Already down to a 50 minDayum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Now down to 47... and we got almost three hours left in the day. I'm glad my low worked out to neutralize my high errors, but wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 I was in 769th after day 2 and could somehow be beating consensus if the low gets to 46. My calculated gamble might pay off for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 I was in 769th after day 2 and could somehow be beating consensus if the low gets to 46. My calculated gamble might pay off for once. Opposite here... I was 3rd after day 1, and fell to 299th by day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 17, 2015 Author Share Posted October 17, 2015 I'm going to ignore my current rank and hope I can improve it by a considerable amount next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Too bad we're not forecasting for Sunday night...decent shot at a record low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 418th right now going for below 200 next week. I really need to get better at wind forecasting just not my forte i guess lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 This is just one of those cities where everyone is annoyingly bunched together. I'm in 473rd but I'm only about four points from being in the top 100. The USL is very close to consensus (slightly above) so that probably explains why it's such a tight clustering. That and the fact that we haven't had any meaningful precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 20, 2015 Author Share Posted October 20, 2015 67/48/22/0 Tried bumping the low up to 49 but missed the deadline by one second, we'll see what the low actually is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 66/49/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 66/44/20/0 Warm advection usually means go above guidance with the low, but they are starting out so cold and dry that I didn't want to go above the mid-40s. I'll bust if there are too many clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 65/46/20 originally had 67 but not very confident on mixing tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 67/47/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 70/42/20/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 67/47/19 Some major movement in standings incoming tomorrow. Higher on the high/wind wouldn't surprise me. Who knows really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 65/47/20 Top thirty for now so I'm playing conservatively. I think I'll beat consensus with the low and maximum sustained wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 66/44/19/0 Not quite confident on the low those clouds are really going to make or break it. Winds look low until just around sunrise so we may be able to squeak a 46. maybe (hopefully) lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 66/44/19/0 Not quite confident on the low those clouds are really going to make or break it. Winds look low until just around sunrise so we may be able to squeak a 46. maybe (hopefully) lower Not really? I mean they pick up after sunrise, sure, but they're going to be blowing all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 20, 2015 Author Share Posted October 20, 2015 Wish I went warmer with the low! Gun shy after Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Not really? I mean they pick up after sunrise, sure, but they're going to be blowing all night. A brief 2-3 hour period of winds 5-9mph versus 10-15mph could be enough of a difference. The real key player is if this can couple with clear sky conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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