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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2015-16 Discussion

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I'd hate to have to be writing the AFD's over this storm.  So much up in the air in regards to timing, location, strength, precip type, precip amount, etc...

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The low is weaker this run. Surface temps are colder farther south but 850 MB temps look to be above freezing the farther east you go, so the heaviest snow ends up in Texas with lesser amounts farther north... But... there would be a larger area of ice where surface temps are cold, but 850 MB temps above freezing.

 

acc10_1snowsc.png

 

So it actually gets cold enough for ice in NW AR even...

 

gfs_T2m_us_19.png

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I feel bad for the forecasters at the weather service! At least it's not a big travel weekend or anything...

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The low is weaker this run. Surface temps are colder farther south but 850 MB temps look to be above freezing the farther east you go, so the heaviest snow ends up in Texas with lesser amounts farther north... But... there would be a larger area of ice where surface temps are cold, but 850 MB temps above freezing.

 

acc10_1snowsc.png

 

So it actually gets cold enough for ice in NW AR even...

 

gfs_T2m_us_19.png

Wow, Fredericksburg/Kerrville (Hill Country towns not far west of Austin) get a couple or few inches from this on the GFS, and San Saba 6"+. Accumulating snow practically to I-35. 

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Wow. Verbatim, the 0z GFS shows Oklahoma City being a battleground with 6"+ in the northwest corner of the county and, perhaps, 1" in the southeast corner with lots of ice for all before that. Taking off the weenie glasses, it looks like some pretty serious icing is possible for this area and for the entire I-44 corridor.

Ironically, I don't think the impacts of an ice storm will be nearly as bad as usual here in OKC because the Thanksgiving storm already took out just about every tree and limb that might possibly have been prone to snapping in an ice storm. We lost an insane amount of trees.

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Hi I'm usually lurking in the OH Valley sub forum (where I go to school) But now I'm back in North Texas and on another forum I'm on we have been comparing this storm to the 2009 Christmas Eve Storm and they're eerily identical.

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*sarcasm* Look at how consistent the GFS is being.

00Z GFS run on monday

acc10_1snowc.png

 

00Z GFS run on Tuesdayacc10_1snowc.png

00Z GFS run on wednesday (today)

acc10_1snowc.png

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*sarcasm* Look at how consistent the GFS is being.

00Z GFS run on monday

acc10_1snowc.png

 

00Z GFS run on Tuesdayacc10_1snowc.png

00Z GFS run on wednesday (today)

acc10_1snowc.png

The low is stacking too quickly to provide much snow north of OK on the GFS. The negative tilt as it progresses north is also forcing too much warm air aloft on the north and east sides of the upper low, causing a larger ice/sleet zone there but less snow. These factors would take a widespread snowstorm in W TX to a localized affair in KS underneath the upper low and enough forcing/cold air in one spot. Models have been hinting at this for the last day or so. 

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00z Euro is farther NW from it's 12z run.  TX PH, W KS (parts of central KS), W OK in the possible snow, probably an area of frozen something immediately to the east of that.

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I guess if it's any consolation for us folks waiting on winter to show up, Gary Lezak still thinks that a lot of us will have plenty of fun starting first week of January through the last week of February. Can't believe December is already pretty much over.

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Wow confusing to say the least, guess we will see as things get sampled better. I dont think anything is going to come of this for NW arkansas though, maybe Im wrong lol. Oh and thnx MoWeatherGuy, nice to see someone agrees with my crazy thinking on things haha. Maybe we will see some frozen precip, still a bit too early I think. Need a xmas miracle lol, I hate these balmy whacky temps especially during xmas eve and xmas day bleh.

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Hi all! Forgot about this place since the weather hasn't been wintry!!! :) Hope you all have a merry Christmas. I am anxiously watching the weekend storm. May I just say that 5-8" of rain is better than 1" of ice. 

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Hi all! Forgot about this place since the weather hasn't been wintry!!! :) Hope you all have a merry Christmas. I am anxiously watching the weekend storm. May I just say that 5-8" of rain is better than 1" of ice.

Hi! I think the whole gang has made it back now. Now we just need winter to start!

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00z Euro is farther NW from it's 12z run.  TX PH, W KS (parts of central KS), W OK in the possible snow, probably an area of frozen something immediately to the east of that.

 

Impressive GFS run for your area...amazing the SE shifts over the past few days.

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Yeah, 12z GFS was a good run for me. 

 

 

GFS can kind of bandy in these situations, from the 5/7hlow tracks it should have more QPF over your area.  Still verbatim it's a great winter event for Dec.

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Assuming the 12Z GFS 500 low track verified to a T OKC and most of NRN and CNTRL OK would be way snowier than those maps suggest. That low track is perfect, usually OKC wants to see it go over roughly DFW and then hook NE a bit near TXK

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Merry Christmas everyone! Watching the Ozark's weather from back home in soggy S. Jersey. Concerned about the flood potential over the weekend for Arkansas.

Crazy, thats where I grew up lol. My mom said its rainy there and supposed to be 74 today in Millville(my hometown). What a small world

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