Jon Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 The 12z EPS is ridiculous, it's like a 09/10 -NAO, and such a huge change run to run. @324hrs honestly I hate to say it but Bastardi was pretty dead on with his toughts on where the center of the trough would be located on newer runs on the EPS. It's gone from CA to the Dakotas, and that's exactly where he said it would be on newer runs. It does look like it will win out over the ridge by the 28th or earlier, so we could end colder which will help kill off the anomalies for the month as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 @324hrs honestly I hate to say it but Bastardi was pretty dead on with his toughts on where the center of the trough would be located on newer runs on the EPS. It's gone from CA to the Dakotas, and that's exactly where he said it would be on newer runs. It does look like it will win out over the ridge by the 28th or earlier, so we could end colder which will help kill off the anomalies for the month as a whole. Regardless of what happens, just seeing a -NAO materialize for a week would be huge victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 18z GEFS has the cold beating out the ridge by day 7, day 10-15 average...cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 OP GFS has been hinting at something around or after thanksgiving. Of course, it's probably wrong but it's been there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 18z GEFS has the cold beating out the ridge by day 7, day 10-15 average...cold. And those anomalies are in CELSIUS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 And those anomalies are in CELSIUS!The way that cold spreads and the the look of those maps, could bring the goods! A nice pre Christmas snow, would be a shock , to alot of people! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Anyone see this frame from the 18z GFS? I like the looks of the coastal with cold nearby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 The Euro shows some nice blocking setting up at hour 240... Is that a -NAO developing?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Any indicators that the ATL could see some flurries during Thanksgiving week? Would be quite the treat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 The Beijing Climate Center seasonal for D-F is pretty good for including December and J-M is just a huge theme of blockiness...+PNA -AO -NAO I'm interested to see what the JMA spits out any day now, and what the IRI looks like next Thursday. Other than that, it's nowcast time folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Very -PDO, -AMO temp change look over the past 30 days...the +PDO is taking a beating right now. The GEFS is showing a change to -EPO but then looks to go right back to the AK low with -PNA/+EPO look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 I do like how the CFS is going to the more canonical nino look for Dec...ak/pac low shift west from week 3 to week 4. #Decblowtorch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 I do like how the CFS is going to the more canonical nino look for Dec...ak/pac low shift west from week 3 to week 4. #Decblowtorch Dude....give it a chance to unfold. You're model hugging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 December is expected to be warm across most of the nation due to the Nino flexing its muscles. No surprise to see models showing this it's actually expected. Going into late December, say around Christmas, we should begin seeing models picking up on the colder change coming for January and February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 I do like how the CFS is going to the more canonical nino look for Dec...ak/pac low shift west from week 3 to week 4. #Decblowtorch That's JB's favorite model, as long as it shows cold! He won't even acknowledge it, with a look like that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Dude....give it a chance to unfold. You're model hugging. Lol...you guys are a tough crowd. I thought my post was actually an optimistic look towards winter. It is hopefully going to unfold....the Dec canonical Nino look is what we want and what we have to go through to get to Jan-March. The quicker we can get to that look the better. We need Nino to do its thing and I think/hope we start seeing some blocking response by end of Dec into early Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 December is expected to be warm across most of the nation due to the Nino flexing its muscles. No surprise to see models showing this it's actually expected. Going into late December, say around Christmas, we should begin seeing models picking up on the colder change coming for January and February. Hit the deck...take cover...every man for himself, unless you post that Dec-April is going to be cold/snowy. All kidding aside, I agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 First snows for east coast week of Thanksgiving? I should say first of many before people freak out.,.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Got to love the control run, 20-25F below normal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Got to love the control run, 20-25F below normal... Wait...but I thought it was suppose to be wall to wall torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Wait...but I thought it was suppose to be wall to wall torch? Who said that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Who said that?I think it was the same guy who said " no double digit rain totals" during the flood of Oct 2015! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 I think it was the same guy who said " no double digit rain totals" during the flood of Oct 2015! HAH...don't listen to that guy then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 That's JB's favorite model, as long as it shows cold! He won't even acknowledge it, with a look like that! It's hard to see from those 500mb maps but it's actually not too warm at the surface, at least for week 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 It's hard to see from those 500mb maps but it's actually not too warm at the surface, at least for week 3. I like the last few runs of the Dec monthly on the CFS...southern trough trying to get going and NPac low getting going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Allan had to increase the scale...impressive the 4 is almost catching 1.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Say what you want but the strength and area of coverage from this El nino is impressive. Right at its peak now and we will notice a big difference in its appearance a month, espeacilly 2 months from down the road. But it will take a while coming of this lofty peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Let's see if this goes anywhere or if it's even right...GFS did this a lot last year from this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Nice article with some interesting stats... http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/el-nino-snow-season-impact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Nice article with some interesting stats... http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/el-nino-snow-season-impact Yeah, more snow at Charlotte with the +NAO in a strong el nino. thats weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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