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Winter 15-16 Discussion


griteater

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The 12z EPS is ridiculous, it's like a 09/10 -NAO, and such a huge change run to run.

@324hrs honestly I hate to say it but Bastardi was pretty dead on with his toughts on where the center of the trough would be located on newer runs on the EPS. It's gone from CA to the Dakotas, and that's exactly where he said it would be on newer runs. It does look like it will win out over the ridge by the 28th or earlier, so we could end colder which will help kill off the anomalies for the month as a whole. 

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@324hrs honestly I hate to say it but Bastardi was pretty dead on with his toughts on where the center of the trough would be located on newer runs on the EPS. It's gone from CA to the Dakotas, and that's exactly where he said it would be on newer runs. It does look like it will win out over the ridge by the 28th or earlier, so we could end colder which will help kill off the anomalies for the month as a whole. 

 

Regardless of what happens, just seeing a -NAO materialize for a week would be huge victory.

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The Beijing Climate Center seasonal for D-F is pretty good for including December

9FSXsVr.gif

 

and J-M is just a huge theme of blockiness...+PNA -AO -NAO

QRBwQt8.gif

 

I'm interested to see what the JMA spits out any day now, and what the IRI looks like next Thursday. Other than that, it's nowcast time folks!

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December is expected to be warm across most of the nation due to the Nino flexing its muscles. No surprise to see models showing this it's actually expected. Going into late December, say around Christmas, we should begin seeing models picking up on the colder change coming for January and February.

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Dude....give it a chance to unfold. You're model hugging.

Lol...you guys are a tough crowd. I thought my post was actually an optimistic look towards winter.

It is hopefully going to unfold....the Dec canonical Nino look is what we want and what we have to go through to get to Jan-March. The quicker we can get to that look the better. We need Nino to do its thing and I think/hope we start seeing some blocking response by end of Dec into early Jan.

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December is expected to be warm across most of the nation due to the Nino flexing its muscles. No surprise to see models showing this it's actually expected. Going into late December, say around Christmas, we should begin seeing models picking up on the colder change coming for January and February.

Hit the deck...take cover...every man for himself, unless you post that Dec-April is going to be cold/snowy.

All kidding aside, I agree with you.

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That's JB's favorite model, as long as it shows cold! He won't even acknowledge it, with a look like that!

It's hard to see from those 500mb maps but it's actually not too warm at the surface, at least for week 3. 

 

QvadPEe.gif

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