Hoosier Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Alright, the 12z NAM just got absolutely ridiculous for Monday, as if it wasn't impressive already. A 990 mb-ish surface low in late June...are you kidding me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Alright, the 12z NAM just got absolutely ridiculous for Monday, as if it wasn't impressive already. A 990 mb-ish surface low in late June...are you kidding me? Not only that, it maintains 3000-4000 J/KG of MUCAPE through Tuesday morning and has 925mb bulk shear values of 45-50kts. But of course, everything is solidly capped off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Is that a sup composite of 100 on the 12z NAM?102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Is that a sup composite of 100 on the 12z NAM? a 102 in N Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Not only that, it maintains 3000-4000 J/KG of MUCAPE through Tuesday morning and has 925mb bulk shear values of 45-50kts. But of course, everything is solidly capped off. Yeah, that's a problem. We'll have to see where that zone of too much capping lies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Yeah, that's a problem. We'll have to see where that zone of too much capping lies. Although the potential is huge if everything comes together at the right place/time, it's definitely looking like another "thread the needle" setup. If we get a shortwave too amped like the NAM shows, then capping will ruin the event. If heights instead remain flat and the shortwave fails to amplify, then MI/WI folks can probably forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 a 102 in N Wisconsin. For laughs, here's a forecast sounding from that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Normally when you see a solution like the 12z NAM, you wonder if there's some convective feedback issue affecting the model output in a bad way, but I'm not sure that's the case here. If you trace it back to the previous day, the surface low is already pretty deep in the presence of no convection. That doesn't necessarily mean it will be right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Normally when you see a solution like the 12z NAM, you wonder if there's some convective feedback issue affecting the model output in a bad way, but I'm not sure that's the case here. If you trace it back to the previous day, the surface low is already pretty deep in the presence of no convection. That doesn't necessarily mean it will be right though. Given the amount of jet energy at play, its output doesn't seem too unrealistic IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Given the amount of jet energy at play, its output doesn't seem too unrealistic IMO. Just checked another/better set of maps and changing my opinion on it...I think there could be some contamination by Monday afternoon/evening that's resulting in excessive deepening of the surface low (several mb), especially in the 21z timeframe. Either way, it's a pretty dynamic setup for late June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 In east-central WI at 21Z on 12Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 In east-central WI at 21Z on 12Z NAM. That sounding is definitely convectively contaminated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 That sounding is definitely convectively contaminated. yeah, most of the forecast soundings on the 12Z NAM in the northern half of WI are... Figured i'd show it to show that they're being contaminated, and giving erroneous parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Considerable differences in surface low strength at 00z Monday out in Wyoming...again, prior to there being a whole lot of convection. 12z GFS is 1000 mb and 12z NAM is 993 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Alright, the 12z NAM just got absolutely ridiculous for Monday, as if it wasn't impressive already. A 990 mb-ish surface low in late June...are you kidding me? Well June 2010 had a 985 mb low as it passed Toledo to the north. The mid level jet was in fact the same as it being forecasted for Monday so these models are not showing anything unrealistic IMO. I forget the exact pressures but I believe last June's event in WI was pretty similar Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Well June 2010 had a 985 mb low as it passed Toledo to the north. The mid level jet was in fact the same as it being forecasted for Monday so these models are not showing anything unrealistic IMO. I forget the exact pressures but I believe last June's event in WI was pretty similar Sent from my iPhone Which June event in 2010? If you're thinking June 5-6, it was way weaker than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 Alright, the 12z NAM just got absolutely ridiculous for Monday, as if it wasn't impressive already. A 990 mb-ish surface low in late June...are you kidding me? That low looks convectively induced or enhanced. Actually with what Powerball mentioned with the system being overly amplified on this run it draws in too much mid level warming. I think in later runs we will see that back off a bit as you get a better idea on the actual strength of the low and not this over amplified solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Which June event in 2010? If you're thinking June 5-6, it was way weaker than that. You're right it was 995 that was my bad. I believe it went below 990 over NY Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 The top analog for the 12z NAM is a good one. I know that the NAM isn't realistic, but I like seeing these historic events show up. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/may30-311998page.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 To echo others, 12z NAM soundings are incredible. Out of Wausau, WI on Monday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Those soundings are just so unrealistic. I do like seeing the PDS Tor in the hazard types though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase.frankel1 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Wondering if northern Illinois is anywhere close to the storm zone on Monday. Seems like SPC maybe too far north? Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase.frankel1 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 To echo others, 12z NAM soundings are incredible. Out of Wausau, WI on Monday evening. Screen Shot 2015-06-20 at 12.24.00 PM.png Wondering if the NAM is 1. Overdoing it (which I believe to be true) but 2. If the nam is too far north. I guess this is a wait and see. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 I'd have to wonder the same thing as Chase. The NAM may very well be too far north. Im not sure yet if we're done for Monday here in N IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 18z NAM is a good 4mb weaker through 18z Monday than its past few runs, and a little more progressive too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 18z NAM is a good 4mb weaker through 18z Monday than its past few runs, and a little more progressive too. That would lead to a wider potential as it won't draw up as much warm air at 700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 18z NAM is a good 4mb weaker through 18z Monday than its past few runs, and a little more progressive too. More realistic. The 12z had the low go from 998 to 992 from 18z to 21z Monday which is why it had all those crazy parameters. It was definitely some contamination that caused the quick local pressure falls. Also, look at the sim reflectivity on the 18z 4km. Looks like a bunch of sups to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 That would lead to a wider potential as it won't draw up as much warm air at 700mb. Yeah, it's not like the wind field is too much less impressive. The Euro is also a little more progressive and weaker, with a 1004mb sfc. low over the UP by 00z Monday and near Sault Ste. Marie by 6z. Even with that weaker sfc. reflection there's still roughly 50-70kts of bulk shear to work with and LCL's are below 800, with a very large area of 25+ kt. 0-1km shear. It's also difficult to interpret 6hr precip plots, but there's widespread convection across IL/WI before 8pm and some in IN/MI/NWOH between 0-6z. And this is all with DP's in the upper 60s/low 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Both the 18Z 12KM NAM and 18Z 4KM NAM still continue to show an very impressive background environment across S WI/MI on Monday starting as soon as 18Z across NE IA/S WI/MI... 4KM NAM shows numerous discrete/semi-discrete supercells developing on the CF by 21-00z and moving SE across the area, looks like things would go linear pretty fast though since 850mb winds will be nearly parallel to the front... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Both the 18Z 12KM NAM and 18Z 4KM NAM still continue to show an very impressive background environment across S WI/MI on Monday starting as soon as 18Z across NE IA/S WI/MI... 4KM NAM shows numerous discrete/semi-discrete supercells developing on the CF by 21-00z and moving SE across the area, looks like things would go linear pretty fast though since 850mb winds will be nearly parallel to the front... It's more noteworthy if mid level winds are parallel to the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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