IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 that's Saturday... it shows 80's for us Sunday Yes you are correct, my mistake. 80's for the southern half anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 The 00z Euro is an all out soaker for most of Saturday and we do eventually dry slot on Sunday with clouds and temps in the 50/60's. If you want to call that salvaging Sunday then have at it.it jumped north from 12z and got close to looking like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 it jumped north from 12z and got close to looking like this We will see how things playout. I definitely wouldn't rush the warm idea with this setup at H5. The cold air isn't far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Man that bow echo looked insane last night. My family in South Jersey had 5 trees come down on there property. Said it was almost as bad as the 2010 derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Top 10 day of the year out there for sure today. We've been lucky enough to get 3 or 4 of them this month despite many cloudy and dreary days and a few days with excessive humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Chamber of commerce day...summery month in my back yard with at least 5 plus 90 days and positive departures between 1.5-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Chamber of commerce day...summery month in my back yard with at least 5 plus 90 days and positive departures between 1.5-2 Enjoy warlock. It's beautiful out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Chamber of commerce day...summery month in my back yard with at least 5 plus 90 days and positive departures between 1.5-2 Someone already told you a few days ago that New Brunswick was officially -0.9 for the month after you insisted it was above average. Let us know when the thermometer on your porch becomes an official reporting site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 It's a very pleasant day compared to the past few, humid days. With the troughs building in we'll cut down this months positives and avoid heat waves for a while. I wonder how long this new pattern will last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 First of all that was 3 days before the warmth.so that .9 number is wrong..I am about the same distance to Trenton as I am to New Brunswick and look at Sacrus post for their numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 First of all that was 3 days before the warmth.so that .9 number is wrong..I am about the same distance to Trenton as I am to New Brunswick and look at Sacrus post for their numbers First off you picked New Brunswick to use, not anyone else. Secondly it wasn't that hot the last two days. 2 days near 90 this time of year isn't going to put you in a +1.5-2 like your last post claims. Thirdly we could be as much as 25 to 30 below normal on Saturday which will negate any progress you've made back towards positive. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Here is the output for Trenton since I know you think it's a warmer site. The 12z GFS shows a high of 71.0F on Saturday afternoon and that's one of the warmer pieces of guidance. That's at least 10 degrees below normal. 150628/0000Z 84 09005KT 71.0F RAIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 The 12z Euro is super amplified for Saturday. Temperatures are near 60F near the coast and 50's inland. Heavy rain, complete washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 The Euro does get the warm sector further North for Sunday so we probably salvage the second half of the day. We'll need to see if this faster evolution comes to fruition as we move closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 -NAO..........................check +PNA..........................check closed low..................check heavy rain potential.....check strong east winds........check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 The Euro tries to do almost the same thing early next week as the trough stays in place and another shortwave rotates in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 No doubt the Euro is advertising a cooler and wetter pattern... Just thru 156 total rains from Southern Jersey to Northern Jersey and NYC are in the 2 + range And this goes into the southern tier of NY ..to as much as 4 inches in NW PA area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 The 12z Euro is super amplified for Saturday. Temperatures are near 60F near the coast and 50's inland. Heavy rain, complete washout. How much rain does the Euro show for the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Williamsburg PWS hit 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 How much rain does the Euro show for the weekend? 1.5"+ North. 2.0"+ South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Park high still 82. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 1.5"+ North. 2.0"+ South. And for next seven days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 This is the wettest of the major global models for this weekend. It has tomorrow night hitting mostly south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 And for next seven days? Widespread 3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Last three GFS runs for this weekend (Includes Thursday night into Friday morning) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Widespread 3-4" Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 24, 2015 Author Share Posted June 24, 2015 Looks like a winter pattern coming up this weekend. Sheesh, its the first week of astro summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 The 15z SREF mean shifted a hair south for tomorrow night and the 18z NAM seems to be following suit. We'll have to see if this is just typical model noise or not. This is a big deal because if the area gets heavy rain on Thursday night and then the storm for this weekend materializes, flooding could start to become a major concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Where was this in Febuary ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 12z EPS mean is wet from Saturday late morning through about Sunday late morning. Roughly a 24 hour rainstorm incoming with lots of convection. Probably a steady rain from about Noon on Saturday until midnight Saturday night and then periods of showers/storms thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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