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A new topic for pattern discussion, lack of rain, tropics etc....

 

Will El Nino cause a third consecutive mild summer? Does El Nino fade and drought like conditions set up and bring another hot finish a la 2007? Will there be anything to watch in the tropics? Feel free to share your thoughts!

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A new topic for pattern discussion, lack of rain, tropics etc....

 

Will El Nino cause a third consecutive mild summer? Does El Nino fade and drought like conditions set up and bring another hot finish a la 2007? Will there be anything to watch in the tropics? Feel free to share your thoughts!

 

My thoughts, a very wet summer pattern that keeps temps down overall.  Sure we will get some scorcher days but summer as a whole I have a feeling will be tame.....  El Nino sure seems to be kicking up into gear, seems to be a legit chance at a strong one developing.

 

Tropics should be very muted compared to climo if past El Nino year analogs are to be believed.

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Hopefully the weeklies aren't right towards mid month of June,if it is we will be looking at a ridge centered over the Valley with unseasonable warmth.Until then the western part of the Valley by the NAM 4K should have a severe threat the first part of next week and us in the Mid part will have a marginal risk the east is more influenced by the ridge to E

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GEFS shows us on the wet side wk 2 with parts of the S/Plains drying out.Temp anomolies we are fixing to go into above average by around +2-4 for awhile by the looks.If the weeklies are right we are going to start seeing a dry spell towards mid June with temps in the lower 90's

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DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS
   VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
   APPALACHIANS VICINITY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
   MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. OTHER POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
   OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ...LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS...
   IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A FACTOR
   ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS
   RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DESTABILIZATION/RELATED SEVERE
   RISK EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THIS EARLY DAY ACTIVITY. WHILE THERE IS
   GUIDANCE VARIABILITY...THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH AND RELATED MID/UPPER JET WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
   MIDWEST DURING THE PERIOD WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD
   OF THE COLD FRONT. AS STORMS INCREASE/INTENSIFY INTO THE
   AFTERNOON...AT LEAST WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY AND A RELATIVELY
   STRONG WIND FIELD /PARTICULARLY TN VALLEY NORTHWARD/ COULD SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
   TORNADO OR TWO.

   ...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO OZARKS...
   WHILE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAK UNDER THE INFLUENCE
   OF RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK MAY
   EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
   NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL RETURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PERIOD AND
   A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE IN PLACE BY
   LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TO THE EAST OF A DRYLINE AND NEAR/SOUTHEAST
   OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO
   VALLEY. STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS...WHILE STORMS POTENTIALLY OTHERWISE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS VICINITY WITH AID OF INCREASING
   WARM ADVECTION.

   ..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

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day2probotlk_0600_any.gif?1432559661672

 

 

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS
   VALLEY AND TN/OH VALLEYS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX TO THE
   NORTHEAST STATES/APPALACHIANS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
   MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. OTHER POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
   OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ...LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS...
   EARLY DAY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER
   POTENTIALLY RELATED TO A WEAKENING MCS WILL LIKELY BE A FACTOR
   ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS
   RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE CONSIDERABLE SPATIAL/RISK
   MAGNITUDE UNCERTAINTIES EXIST...ESPECIALLY NORTHWARD INTO THE OH
   VALLEY/MIDWEST WHERE BUOYANCY WILL BE WEAKER...DIURNAL
   DESTABILIZATION AND RELATED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE
   FOCUSED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EARLY DAY
   ACTIVITY.

   WHILE GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REMAINS....A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RELATED
   MID/UPPER JET WILL GENERALLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
   MIDWEST DURING THE PERIOD WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD
   OF THE COLD FRONT. AS STORMS INCREASE/INTENSIFY INTO THE
   AFTERNOON...AT LEAST WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY AND A RELATIVELY
   STRONG WIND FIELD /PARTICULARLY TN VALLEY NORTHWARD/ COULD SUPPORT
   EAST/NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH DAMAGING WINDS
   AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO.

   ...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO OZARKS...
   WHILE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAK UNDER THE INFLUENCE
   OF RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...A PASSING/WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS IMPLIES AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE REGION PARTICULARLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
   NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL RETURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PERIOD AND
   A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
   PLACE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TO THE EAST OF A DRYLINE AND
   NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
   PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SPATIAL DETAILS ARE
   NOT HIGH /OUTLOOK ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE EXPECTED/...AT LEAST ISOLATED
   SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE/MODEST VERTICAL
   SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. STORMS COULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS TUESDAY
   NIGHT AND/OR OTHERWISE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND
   TOWARD THE OZARKS VICINITY WITH AID OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION.

   ..GUYER.. 05/25/2015

 

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I need rain. That is my weather recap for the last two weeks. Not a drop in that timespan

We could use it here as well,but not as bad as you guys in the NE parts of the Valley.HRRR shows the pw's at 1.94" for us early this afternoon,radar is looking good also.

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We could use it here as well,but not as bad as you guys in the NE parts of the Valley.HRRR shows the pw's at 1.94" for us early this afternoon,radar is looking good also.

Wow 1.94 is very high! Yeah y'all look good today and really all week with rain chances.

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Mean trough is locked over Texas. Expect SER to continue through Independence Day, dirty SER at times. Could be 1993 but things farther south, and hopefully not as hot here. Remember the Midwest floods of 1993? Enjoy!

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I need rain. That is my weather recap for the last two weeks. Not a drop in that timespan

 

This.  I've been incredibly unlucky for several weeks now.  Storms will be coming right for me, looking like a sure thing on radar, then they split and I barely get enough to settle the dust.  Just last night I thought we were golden.  The sky got dark and thunder was cracking.  Blam, it cut to the north at the last minute.  Guess I'll keep the sprinkler on the garden and hope for better luck.

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This.  I've been incredibly unlucky for several weeks now.  Storms will be coming right for me, looking like a sure thing on radar, then they split and I barely get enough to settle the dust.  Just last night I thought we were golden.  The sky got dark and thunder was cracking.  Blam, it cut to the north at the last minute.  Guess I'll keep the sprinkler on the garden and hope for better luck.

I am not happy about the nightly watering routine. Makes one very aware of how much 21st century gardens require. Water saving techniques might be a good future topic of discussion. Right now, I am watering at the base of my plants. Zero disease at the moment. We get a bunch of rain soon...blight, mildew, splitting/cracking(not a disease), and blossom end rot will be unleashed.

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Believe it or not, after being totally rain free for the first 3 weeks of May, I'm going to finish the month above normal once this afternoon's storms move through. My grass had totally stopped growing, but it's going gangbusters now. A very dramatic turnaround over the last 5-6 days.

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Believe it or not, after being totally rain free for the first 3 weeks of May, I'm going to finish the month above normal once this afternoon's storms move through. My grass had totally stopped growing, but it's going gangbusters now. A very dramatic turnaround over the last 5-6 days.

That's a pretty accurate description 90 miles to your south here in Marietta too.

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GFS is cranking out a wet 10 days, with most of this happening over the Sunday-Wednesday period. 

 

gfs_apcpn_seus_40.png

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

546 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION

VALID MAY 29/1200 UTC THRU JUN 01/1200 UTC

REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 BASED ON A LATE LOOK

AT THE 00Z ECMWF HIRES MODEL AND RECENT

RADAR IMAGERY/TRENDS.

DAY 1...

...GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD THRU THE PLAINS AND

MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY...

SEVERAL STREAMS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL S/WV ENERGY WILL KEEP THINGS

QUITE ACTIVE CONVECTION-WISE THRU A LARGE PART OF THE CENTER OF

THE NATION THIS PERIOD.  CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH ON THIS

LARGE SCALE IDEA..BUT A BIT LOWER WITH THE FINER DETAILS OF WHERE

THE HEAVIER RAINS WILL OCCUR..ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS..MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY

CONTINUES TO SOME DEGREE IN THIS LATEST MODEL RUN..WITH SOME OF

THE GLOBAL MODELS NOT EVEN DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE ONGOING WELL

ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER TX.  SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION

GUIDANCE IS DOING AN ACCEPTABLE JOB WITH THE TX

CONVECTION..INCLUDING THE ARW..NMMB AND HRRR..SO THE 1ST PART OF

THE DAY 1 QPF LEANED MUCH MORE TOWARDS THESE HIRES SOLUTIONS.

GIVEN THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A MCV EVOLVE FROM THIS

CONVECTION..AND ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE

S/WV ENERGY MOVING THRU TX IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH..EXPECT

CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN TX EARLY INTO THE

AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.  LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY

SATURDAY..ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF

COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COMBINATION OF THE

EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND LATER IN THE PERIOD ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO

LEAD TO SOME LOCAL 1-2 INCH RAINS AND MORE FLOODING CONCERNS.

FARTHER NORTH..THE MCV LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MS

VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD..AND "MIDDLE" STREAM S/WV ENERGY PULLING

OUT OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES

AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM H5 TROF DROPPING DOWN TOWARDS THE

NORTHERN GREAT LAKES..SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION FROM THE

MID MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST AND UPPER MS VALLEY/NORTHWESTERN

GREAT LAKES ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT.

STAYED CLOSER TO THE HIRES GUIDANCE EVEN HERE..ALTHOUGH THERE WAS

GENERALLY BETTER QPF AGREEMENT HERE BETWEEN THE HIRES AND GLOBAL

GUIDANCE.  MOSTLY 0.50-1.00 INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS

MOST LIKELY..ALTHOUGH SOME  ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS CERTAINLY

POSSIBLE.

...MID TO UPPER TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

THE WEAKENING MCV/SHORT WAVE TROF LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE

TRAILING AXIS OF VORTICITY EXTENDING TO THE GULF COAST IN THE

VICINITY OF THE FL PANHANDLE WILL KEEP RAINFALL CHANCES HIGH THIS

PERIOD THROUGH THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID

TO UPPER TN VALLEY.  WITH PW VALUES ABOVE AVERAGE IN THIS

VORTICITY AXIS..LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE..BUT GIVEN

OVERALL UNCERTAINTIES WITH PLACEMENT OF MAX TOTALS..AREAL AVERAGE

AMOUNTS WERE KEPT IN THE MODERATE RANGE.

DAYS 2/3...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHEAST/TN-OH VALLEYS/GREAT

LAKES/NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE ONSET OF PERIOD SHOWING A

POSITIVELY TITLED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WAVY COLD FRONT

WITH CENTERS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG FRONT CROSSING NEW YORK/NEW

ENGLAND ALSO ALSO OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO ISOLATED

HEAVY RAINS DURING THIS TWO-DAY PERIOD.

A SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN

STREAM ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE SURFACE WAVES ALONG THE

BOUNDARY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE

AND  RAINS.  MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE

WAVES...LOWERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE.  MANUAL PROGS FOLLOWED A

BLEND OF THE 18-00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.

THE 00Z NAM/00Z UKMET INDICATE HEAVY RAIN IN MICHIGAN NORTH OF

WAVE ON THE FRONT IN IL AND THEN CROSSING NORTHERN IN SAT NIGHT.

THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A HIGHER AMPLITUDE/LOWER WAVELENGTH 700 MB

WAVE WHICH INDUCED POST-FRONTAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS IN THE OH

VALLEY...SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE OH VALLEY AND

GREAT LAKES.  THE 00Z ECMWF BACKED OFF THE AMOUNTS IN THE OHIO

VALLEY  ON THE 00Z RUN AND THIS WAS PREFERRED.

ACROSS AREAS WHERE HEAVY AMOUNTS DO OCCUR...FLASH FLOODING IS A

CONCERN...PARTICULARLY WHERE THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE

VALUES SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAINS MAY ALSO POSE RUN OFF PROBLEMS.

FROM SAT INTO EARLY SUN AS THE FRONT ADVANCES EAST...FLASH

FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS INTO

THE TN VALLEY AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY INTO THE GREAT

LAKES.

WITH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT SLOW TO MOVE AND PRECIPITABLE WATCH

VALUES PEAKING NEAR 1.75 INCHES/1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE

NORMAL....SLOW MOVING SHOWER/STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY

RAINS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY.

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Today, Friday, winds are off the mountains again. Storms should roll off toward the Valley. However like yesterday they may be pulsy and hit or miss. Now that Stove has soaker hoses we can assume plenty of rain in Knoxville, lol!

 

Weekend is more of a synoptic front. Upper air support lacks for severe; but LLJ is there, so looks like mainly heavy rain. Marginal looks good from SPC for the occasional microburst. Can we have a do over of last weekend? Loved the low humidity!

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Today, Friday, winds are off the mountains again. Storms should roll off toward the Valley. However like yesterday they may be pulsy and hit or miss. Now that Stove has soaker hoses we can assume plenty of rain in Knoxville, lol!

 

Weekend is more of a synoptic front. Upper air support lacks for severe; but LLJ is there, so looks like mainly heavy rain. Marginal looks good from SPC for the occasional microburst. Can we have a do over of last weekend? Loved the low humidity!

 

Nice, I enjoy your updates thoroughly, you seem to nail the forecast you put out pretty much every time.

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This afternoons models are showing the cold front coming in quicker.Only the NAM 4K shows  this slightly different.The Euro and GFS really kills the QPFS for us on Sunday with the front now more eastward than previous runs.Looks like Jeff might get his wish with the RH.Don't see any capes returning until mid week,so any rain chance right now looks slim to none until mid week

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^ That temperature output makes zero sense to me. How can it be below 0C at 2M in June?

This is based on the 0z runs last night compared to the 12z run today,just differences in model runs

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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1148 AM EDT WED JUN 03 2015

VALID 12Z SAT JUN 06 2015 - 12Z WED JUN 10 2015

THE ECMWF HAS BEEN LESS JUMPY THAN THE GFS WITH THE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS OF THE PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AT THE MEDIUM RANGE THE
LAST FEW DATA CYCLES. THE 00Z/03 ECMWF WAS PARTICULARLY WELL
CORRELATED WITH ITS ATTENDANT ENSEMBLE MEAN, MAKING IT AN
ATTRACTIVE CHOICE AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE FOR FRONTS AND PRESSURES
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. ONE OF THE BIGGEST CAUTIONS WITH A DIRECT
INCORPORATION OF RECENT GFS/GEFS GUIDANCE INTO THE MANUAL BLEND IS
ITS VIGOROUS INJECTION OF TROPICAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING
HURRICANE BLANCA. WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD WITH THE POLAR FRONT THIS PERIOD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.

CISCO

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Some better shear on todays model runs for Monday,surface boundary looks a little faster coming through earlier before it fizzles out.Weeklies continue to show the SER  building back in mid month,will have to watch this and see what happens in the GOM as it's showing a tropical disturbance headed towards the gulf coast states on the models with a stalled out front somewhere extending in the plains.Teleconnections is showing a -NAO so if this is right the ridge might not be as strong as being shown and we could possibly get some good moisture pulled N in the extended period.

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