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Found 6 results

  1. Not a single drop of rain here since June 20th. 8 days. D0 coming to a city near you! Post your streak of days without any rainfall here.
  2. After researching analogs that match up closely to current sea-surface-temperature anomalies (as well as surface temperature and precipitation anomalies experienced from December through February), history suggests that drought-relief may be slow to achieve across the Mid-Atlantic over the next three calendar months (April through June). Unless a late-spring Nor'easter impacts the Washington, D.C. Region between now and mid-April with heavy rainfall, warmer than average temperatures would only further exacerbate the ongoing drought. Temperature Anomalies based on analog package I chose: Precipitation Anomalies based on analog package I chose: Full Details Here: https://dcstorms.com/2017/03/19/capital-weather-washington-dc-area-spring-2017-forecast/
  3. Meteorological summer is upon us and already looking at a hot weekend coming up as well as the third tropical storm of the year!
  4. ...I'm just throwing this out there to see if anyone wants to get the winter of our discontent out of their system, throw back a few drinks and look ahead to record breaking drought conditions on the horizon. How about April 16, or May 14 in Worcester? (trying to dodge school vacations and mother's day)
  5. A new topic for pattern discussion, lack of rain, tropics etc.... Will El Nino cause a third consecutive mild summer? Does El Nino fade and drought like conditions set up and bring another hot finish a la 2007? Will there be anything to watch in the tropics? Feel free to share your thoughts!
  6. Now that model agreement among the GFS ensembles, the GFS operational, the ECMWF, and the ECMWF ensembles are coming into more general agreement re: the timing of our next severe threat, I've decided to start a thread. For starters, models are keying in on a general re-loading pattern over the next five to six days with a +PNA giving way to a -PNA and a broad Western trough setting up. At the same time the MJO is forecast to be in or entering into a weak Phase 1 state over the Atlantic and W Africa with little real change in the -NAO state. Models are showing a high-quality warm sector setting up over the srn Plains by days four and five with a Sonoran EML overspreading nrn TX, OK, and KS. By day five broad lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur east of the Rockies, with a broad southerly return flow advecting a seasonably moist air mass north. While there are capping issues to contend with, especially with the positively tilted trough forecast to set up, overall the set-up would support about a three-day period for convection beginning perhaps with initation along the dryline as early as day four. Given relatively weak deep-layer shear the threat for tornadoes and severe wx generally is likely to be fairly localized, which could either be a bane or a boon to chasers depending on how the mesoscale sets up. Still, it's better than nothing! SPC seems interested: AS A WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES/DEEPENS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SEVERE RISK WILL REMAIN LOW. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH-PLAINS LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THUS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...STEADILY MODIFYING GULF AIR WILL CONTINUE BEING ADVECTED NWD THROUGH MIDWEEK. BY THE WED-FRI TIME PERIOD /DAYS 6-8/...INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE CAPE SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...THUS SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL. WITH THAT BEING SAID HOWEVER...MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGHING. WHILE THE GFS ADVANCES A LARGE TROUGH -- COMPRISED OF PHASED NRN- AND SRN-STREAM SYSTEMS -- EWD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...THE ECMWF DEPICTS A SIMILARLY-TIMED NRN STREAM TROUGH ADVANCE INTO THE NRN PLAINS BUT A STATIONARY -- OR EVEN RETROGRADING -- SRN-STREAM PORTION OF THE TROUGH. WITH SUBSTANTIAL VARIATIONS ALSO THEREFORE MANIFEST IN THE SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS VICINITY...TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY DELINEATING RISK AREAS REMAINS DIFFICULT ATTM. HOWEVER...AS UNCERTAINTY DIMINISHES WITH TIME AND RISK AREAS BECOME MORE CLEAR...EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY AREAS TO BE INTRODUCED IN LATER FORECASTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS STATES AND VICINITY.