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Found 7 results

  1. After researching analogs that match up closely to current sea-surface-temperature anomalies (as well as surface temperature and precipitation anomalies experienced from December through February), history suggests that drought-relief may be slow to achieve across the Mid-Atlantic over the next three calendar months (April through June). Unless a late-spring Nor'easter impacts the Washington, D.C. Region between now and mid-April with heavy rainfall, warmer than average temperatures would only further exacerbate the ongoing drought. Temperature Anomalies based on analog package I chose: Precipitation Anomalies based on analog package I chose: Full Details Here: https://dcstorms.com/2017/03/19/capital-weather-washington-dc-area-spring-2017-forecast/
  2. Meteorological summer is upon us and already looking at a hot weekend coming up as well as the third tropical storm of the year!
  3. Cold Miser

    Spring Gathering

    ...I'm just throwing this out there to see if anyone wants to get the winter of our discontent out of their system, throw back a few drinks and look ahead to record breaking drought conditions on the horizon. How about April 16, or May 14 in Worcester? (trying to dodge school vacations and mother's day)
  4. Mr Bob

    Summer Discussion

    A new topic for pattern discussion, lack of rain, tropics etc.... Will El Nino cause a third consecutive mild summer? Does El Nino fade and drought like conditions set up and bring another hot finish a la 2007? Will there be anything to watch in the tropics? Feel free to share your thoughts!
  5. Now that model agreement among the GFS ensembles, the GFS operational, the ECMWF, and the ECMWF ensembles are coming into more general agreement re: the timing of our next severe threat, I've decided to start a thread. For starters, models are keying in on a general re-loading pattern over the next five to six days with a +PNA giving way to a -PNA and a broad Western trough setting up. At the same time the MJO is forecast to be in or entering into a weak Phase 1 state over the Atlantic and W Africa with little real change in the -NAO state. Models are showing a high-quality warm sector setting up over the srn Plains by days four and five with a Sonoran EML overspreading nrn TX, OK, and KS. By day five broad lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur east of the Rockies, with a broad southerly return flow advecting a seasonably moist air mass north. While there are capping issues to contend with, especially with the positively tilted trough forecast to set up, overall the set-up would support about a three-day period for convection beginning perhaps with initation along the dryline as early as day four. Given relatively weak deep-layer shear the threat for tornadoes and severe wx generally is likely to be fairly localized, which could either be a bane or a boon to chasers depending on how the mesoscale sets up. Still, it's better than nothing! SPC seems interested: AS A WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES/DEEPENS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SEVERE RISK WILL REMAIN LOW. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH-PLAINS LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THUS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...STEADILY MODIFYING GULF AIR WILL CONTINUE BEING ADVECTED NWD THROUGH MIDWEEK. BY THE WED-FRI TIME PERIOD /DAYS 6-8/...INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE CAPE SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...THUS SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL. WITH THAT BEING SAID HOWEVER...MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGHING. WHILE THE GFS ADVANCES A LARGE TROUGH -- COMPRISED OF PHASED NRN- AND SRN-STREAM SYSTEMS -- EWD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...THE ECMWF DEPICTS A SIMILARLY-TIMED NRN STREAM TROUGH ADVANCE INTO THE NRN PLAINS BUT A STATIONARY -- OR EVEN RETROGRADING -- SRN-STREAM PORTION OF THE TROUGH. WITH SUBSTANTIAL VARIATIONS ALSO THEREFORE MANIFEST IN THE SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS VICINITY...TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY DELINEATING RISK AREAS REMAINS DIFFICULT ATTM. HOWEVER...AS UNCERTAINTY DIMINISHES WITH TIME AND RISK AREAS BECOME MORE CLEAR...EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY AREAS TO BE INTRODUCED IN LATER FORECASTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS STATES AND VICINITY.
  6. With the expanding area of drought conditions across this region and no sign of significant widespread rainfall amounts anytime soon, I think posting all the information related to it in one thread. Most of spring was dry and now it is carrying over into summer, which may have agricultural impacts soon or is already. Will see how long it lasts, but for the foreseeable future it will largely be dry where most of the members here reside. Anyone seeing stunted crops yet? What's your rainfall deficit so far? Only 0.30" of rain here this month. Latest Drought update: Forecast is for persistence and even expansion in parts of the Midwest. Link to drought monitor site: http://www.droughtmo...du/current.html
  7. Cool article.... MAJOR POST-LOGGING FIRES IN MICHIGAN: the 1800's Economic prosperity due to the logging industry in Michigan was breeding ecological disaster. Timber waste, forest fires, and a total lack of interest in conservation practices all contributed to the devastation. A great fire in 1871, for example, damaged the entire Lake Michigan shoreline, destroyed the cities of Holland and Manistee, and spread across to Port Huron. By 1900, the lands of the northern Lower Peninsula and the eastern Upper Peninsula were stripped of pine, and scores of lumber towns were dying. Fire has played a major role in shaping vegetation patterns. Native Americans set fires to clear wooded areas and improve wildlife habitat for hunting. European settlers suppressed brush fires, causing forests to replace some large prairies. Wasteful timber-cutting practices led to disastrous forest fires, including the deadly 1871 Peshtigo fire. In the early lumbering days, more timber was lost to fire than was actually harvested. Today, wildfires still affect the logging, tourism, and recreational industries. Most fires strike between March and November; they occur particularly often in drought years. Forest fires were a part of the logging scene in Michigan, although not necessarily the result of it. Nor were forest fires new to the state at the time logging began. Extensive burned-over areas were reported by early surveyors long before the lumbermen arrived. But the great influence of people during the logging era, and the large areas of dry pine slash increased both the possibility of fire and the intensity of those which occurred. Many reached tremendous proportions, burning unchecked for weeks or months through slashings, standing timber, cities and settlements, causing human misery, death, and waste. There is evidence to show that these lumbering era fires destroyed more merchantable timber than was cut. Most of the pine areas in the north part of the Lower Peninsula have burned over at least once, and many several times. Fires were not confined to pine lands, for hardwood slashings also burned. Large parts of these once charred lands are now occupied by jack pine, oak, aspen, and white birch, species which form much of the young forest growth found in northern Michigan. Forest fires have posed a danger throughout Michigan history, particularly in times of drought. The wasteful practices of the early timber industry worsened the hazard by leaving behind huge amounts of dry wood and brush piles. After decades of logging activities, Michigan was littered with thousands of hectares of slash--dead branches, leaves, and wood. In their haste to move on to new cutting sites, loggers usually gave little thought to the lands they were leaving. By the 1870s stumps and branches already littered much of northern Michigan. There was no longer any barrier to erosion on cutover land, and the dried debris created an enormous fire hazard. At the end of the dry summer months fires frequently broke out, sometimes moving into still uncut timberlands or settled areas, as in 1871 and 1881, when fires broke out across the state. Upon drying, these became highly flammable, and led to innumerable fires. Many of these fires were immense, covered large areas, and burned for days. The scene below shows an area near the Upper Manistee River after an 1894 fire. Source: Unknown Source: Unknown Michigan’s first catastrophic fire was in the autumn of 1871. However, the hundreds of lives lost in fires in Chicago and northeastern Wisconsin at the same time overshadowed Michigan’s losses. A combination of numerous small and large fires, the 1871 fire swept across the Lower Peninsula, destroying Holland, Manistee and several Saginaw Valley towns and leaving an estimated 20 dead. A decade later, in September 1881, the Thumb was ravaged by fires that took 282 lives, blackened a million acres and cost $250,000 in property damage. The 1871 fires Let's start with the first big fires in the region--which also happen to be the most famous and the largest! Inevitable disaster occurred in the drought year of 1871. On the night of October 8, hot winds from the south caused normally controllable small fires to shift suddenly and gather force. They swept through a 60-mile stretch north of Green Bay, Wisconsin and a 50-mile stretch on the Door Peninsula, and collectively became known as the "Peshtigo Fire." The conflagration claimed an estimated 1,200-1,500 lives. Survivors later told of jumping into rivers to escape the flames, and witnessing firestorms, or "tornadoes of fire," that devastated enormous areas. Many of those who sought shelter in the Peshtigo River literally boiled to death. Source: Atlas of Wisconsin On October 8, 1871, at about the same hour, two devastating fires started, one in rural Peshtigo, Wisconsin, the other in downtown Chicago. Both fires remain today among the worst natural disasters to befall the Midwest. In fact, no forest fire since the Peshtigo disaster has taken more lives; and the Chicago fire remains the most destructive metropolitan blaze in the nation's history, having caused some $200,000,000 in property damage and all but obliterating the city's core. The Great Chicago fire caused an estimated 250 deaths. Numerous fires on Michigan’s Lower Peninsula also started on October 8, 1871, at places like Holland, Lansing, and Port Huron (see map below). Because they started during the day, the Michigan fires claimed fewer lives, though they destroyed more land and timber. Newspapers of the time publicized the Chicago fire widely, making it the most infamous of the three disasters. The Peshtigo Fire stands today as the deadliest forest fire in modern world history. Source: Unknown The Holland fire, like the others, was due to a combination of high winds and extremely dry conditions. The heart of the Dutch settlements in western Michigan (at Holland) shared the same kind of disaster that struck Chicago, Illinois, October 8 and 9, 1871. At the time, Holland was a small, insignificant town in comparison to Chicago, but for the Dutch immigrants in Michigan, the "Colony at Holland" (pop. 2400), as it was first known, was the focal point for religious refugees who had come in 1847. A devastating economic tragedy, the fire of 1871 nearly wiped out the town founded by the Rev. Albertus C. Van Raalte. The results of hard work of 24 years were practically wiped out in the early morning hours of October 9. But it was also a disaster for the concept and vision that brought the Dutch to western Michigan. Although the basic concept was fading into the background when the tragedy occurred, the ideas which brought the village into existence were still operative in the functioning of the town. Fortunately the fire impeded the growth and development of De Kolonie only temporarily. Most of the townspeople were Dutch immigrants, but a mixture of native Americans was evident by the fact that two lodges functioned in the town (to which Dutch immigrants by religious conviction did not belong), and some English speaking congregations, such as Methodist and Episcopal, had been organized. The Dutch were members of either the predominant Dutch Reformed Church or the True Reformed Church which broke from the Dutch Church in 1857. All in all, Holland was a very flourishing little city that had a harbor and new rail connections, making it a natural market for all the outlying agricultural districts. A period of extensive drought preceded the fire of 1871. Several fires had broken out around the town before October 8, and Hope College had been threatened only a week before. An added hazard was the cut timber and brush that lay in the woods surrounding the town. The old river bed and ravine along Thirteenth Street behind the Third Reformed Church was filled with such debris. The situation became critical on Sunday afternoon, October 8, when a southwesterly wind began to build up in intensity. The townspeople turned out en masse to fight fires that were flaring up on the southern and southwestern part of the town even though that first alarm sounded during the time of the afternoon church services. Disaster was upon the town with the development of "hurricane" winds in the evening. Any thought of saving the town was forgotten when two major structures on the west side caught fire. Within the space of two hours the fire took its toll. "The entire territory covered by the fire was mowed as clean as with a reaper; there was not a fencepost or a sidewalk plank and hardly the stump of a shade tree left to designate the old lines," said one resident. Although the disaster was nearly total, the recovery was rapid, and Holland today is a thriving city in its own right. The 1881 Thumb fire: The fire of 4-6 September 1881, commonly known as the Thumb Fire, burned well over one million acres, cost 282 lives, and did more than $2,347,000 damage. The fire destroyed a major part of Tuscola, Huron, Sanilac, and St. Clair counties. It consumed 1,531 houses and 1,480 barns and outbuildings, and left 14,448 homeless. Like the 1871 fire, the fire of 1881 came at the end of an extremely severe drought and was the result of hundreds of land-clearing fires whipped into a cauldron of flame by high winds. In the Saginaw Valley and the Thumb region it burned over much the same territory that had been burned by the 1871 fire. This fire, 10 years previous, had been so strong that winds associated with it had blown over trees, and many of these were still laying around, dry. Also, 1871 fire did not consume all the slash left by the logging operations of the previous decades, so much was left to burn. No one is sure just how or just where in Tuscola County the fire started. It was the time of year when people used to burn brush piles and other debris left by lumbermen and those engaged in clearing the land. Many people think the wind may have whipped a brushpile fire out of control. The fire probably started as a series of small blazes in slash fires coalesced into a wall of flame moving to the NE. Its severity is accounted for not only by the drought and high winds that prevailed, but by the fact that the country was full of slash from logging and land clearing, and of dead and down timber killed, but unconsumed, by the fire of 1871. The appalling thing about this loss of life was the large number of children involved due to whole families being wiped out. One detailed account of the fires that burned in the Thumb is given in a report of a man who traveled over the burned area after the fire and interviewed many of the survivors. He emphasizes the extreme dryness that prevailed, the presence of vast areas of logging slash, the debris left by the fire of 1871, the prevalence of land-clearing fires, and the occurrence of winds of hurricane force, all of which combined to produce the holocaust which resulted. There have been bad fires in Michigan since, but none as severe or extensive as the great fires of 1871 and 1881. Source: Photograph by Randy Schaetzl, Professor of Geography - Michigan State University Persons who have not experienced a big forest fire cannot conceive of the appalling conditions which occur and the terror and helplessness of those in its path. The following excerpts from contemporary accounts give some idea of the conditions that prevailed in the 1881 fire: From the Evening News, Detroit: Thursday, September 1, 1881: "The drought all over the Mississippi Valley and throughout the northwest continues with unabated rigor. Atmosphere scorches and blisters everything...vegetation dried to a cinder, gives nothing but material for fire. Trees shedding their leaves a month before the usual time; grass brown and withered. Pastures and streams dried up. Milk scarce, butter a luxury. If it does not rain and rain hard soon, food will be scarce this winter...Buyers paying the unheard price of 18 and 20 cents a pound for butter." Saturday, September 3: "Farmer near Stark overcome while fighting fire and burned to death." Tuesday, September 6: "Women burned to death while fleeing for shelter near Lapeer...terrible fires reported raging in the forests northwest and north of Bay City...air full of cinders... people suffering from heat and smoke...Fires devastating the woods around Flint." "Saginaw: Intensely warm and smoke suffocating. East of the city forest fires raging fiercely. ...hundreds of acres afire. Fires plainly visible from the city at night... "Detroit: Heat and drought almost unprecedented. Throughout the timber regions great forest fires are raging in all directions from the Mississippi to the ocean. In many places the earth is so dry that fires have penetrated into the soil, following the vegetable fibers and moving mysteriously by this means over many miles only to break to the surface in a destroying conflagration wherever the surface vegetation furnishes fuel. (Fires) seem to break out spontaneously from the bosom of the earth. "Port Huron: Tremendous fires in Sanilac and Huron counties...Richmondville destroyed and Deckerville reported burned... Many people horribly burned." read more...http://www.geo.msu.edu/geogmich/fires_ii.html