Hoosier Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Models coming into relative agreement on a NW-SE oriented band of snow from the Northern Plains southeastward toward IL/IN. The general idea is for a weakening trend as it heads east but just how quickly this happens remains to be seen. This event, if not frontogenesis driven, has decent frontogenetic support which means that we could see some decent totals in a narrow band if things work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 20, 2015 Author Share Posted March 20, 2015 obligatory snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 20, 2015 Author Share Posted March 20, 2015 At least you'll miss most of it by the way it looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 .25" final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Thermals going to play a big role like all spring systems. But this is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 12z GEM with a 4-6" swath from DBQ to the western suburbs of chi metro. Euro with 3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2015 Author Share Posted March 21, 2015 UKMET struggles to even bring precip into the Chicago area. I only mention it because it's had some shining moments this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Expecting about 1/4" of cold rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2015 Author Share Posted March 21, 2015 Expecting about 1/4" of cold rain here. imo, things look a bit more interesting around there than you're suggesting. Forecast thermal profiles support a messy mix and with a deep layer of steep lapse rates aloft, it may be showery/convective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Heavy snow wording now in the point for Sunday night. Here comes Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 MPX hoisted a WWA for 3-6" and states totals could exceed 6+" for portions of the TC metro. Next runs to determine if an upgrade to warning is necessary. Flight to ORD very early Monday morning looking dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 If it's going to be unseasonably and unreasonably cold, I wish it would at least snow here to insulate the ground."Worst climo" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 This is the earliest in a few years the golf courses have opened, thank god this snow is staying west of here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Here was the 18z GFS. 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 The near surface should wet bulb to freezing but I won't rule out a brief period of rain at onset. We're going to rip around 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 0z NAM. Someone is going to get a plastering! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2015 Author Share Posted March 22, 2015 Precip type looks tricky here. Onset should be sometime Monday afternoon so we'll have had plenty of hours to warm up, but low level dry air looks like it will play a role and there could be enough cooling to allow for some snow or at least a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 T looks about right for the LAF, barring an earlier onset to the precip. But even then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Prob have some variations of precip type here, but all in all a non-event in this area. May be a narrow corridor of decent accums up north, but over such a small swath it's hard to pin down where that will occur. These little narrow late-season systems can be a bit interesting, but this one is so narrow it's more annoying than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2015 Author Share Posted March 22, 2015 T looks about right for the LAF, barring an earlier onset to the precip. But even then... GFS has us in the low 40s at 18z Mon, but wetbulb zero is sub 1000 feet and it would cool pretty quickly with precip. Forecast sounding looks very typical for this time of year with that warm layer near the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Looks like a quick pasting then mixing with rain. Alek's .25" prediction is going to bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Alek special http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015032212&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Looks like the dry air in the LL is already being overcome. Some very light snow falling here now. Models took a little jog south, but still looking like 3-5" on tap. Nice rates possibly over 1"/hr at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Looks like the dry air in the LL is already being overcome. Some very light snow falling here now. Models took a little jog south, but still looking like 3-5" on tap. Nice rates possibly over 1"/hr at times. Another storm where I wish I was farther south. I'd actually be a bit worried if north of 94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Whoa rip city here temp dropped to 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Flurries now in Woodstock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Wow. Lightning just sw of Mankato. Actually some decent mid-level lapse rates advecting into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Keep the upstream reports coming. I'm ready for an overperformer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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