CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 definitely an option, pretty amazing how these cutters seem to slowly evolve into meh . Was the Euro last night the start of the evolution or just a burp?. Of all the cutter fails.seems this one has the best setup, well as of now.... That's why I would like to see 12z and 00z show this. I don't exactly have a ton of confidence in the EC, although it makes sense to me as to why it shows that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 It's just too bad the high is SE of ACK. Not much resistance when that happens, other than rotting temps near 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 That's why I would like to see 12z and 00z show this. I don't exactly have a ton of confidence in the EC, although it makes sense to me as to why it shows that solution.tough to bet against persistence this winter but eventually we have too, right??? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 It's just too bad the high is SE of ACK. Not much resistance when that happens, other than rotting temps near 40.what has started to show up is Sunday becoming sort of a confluence maker, to me that's the key piece Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Good discussion though, no need for hard stances, and One thing NB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 what has started to show up is Sunday becoming sort of a confluence maker, to me that's the key piece It won't change the high probably, but at this point you want a weaker and flatter solution. Can't ignore the GFS either and even a compromise would still be ugly. Can't always fall in love with the coldest solution all the time, but I hope the EC is closer to correct. It was a nice strung out look at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Frozen precip or cold rain I don't see Greenfield getting out of the 30's with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Frozen precip or cold rain I don't see Greenfield getting out of the 30's with this system. Good setup for the nrn CT valley to stay cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Didn't see this thread earlier....but Euro continued to trend colder last night which is good. Really limits the amount of warmth we get and probably an advisory front ender. GFS is probably only an inch or two...though it has trended in a direction where we only see a brief warmup, so perhgaps we can avoid much melt. It's possible this still ends up as a net gainer too if we can grab advisory on the front end and a couple inches on the anafront. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Would be nice of the nrn stream look continued to dig that ULL south and flatten the flow a bit. Keep the trough stretched and limit influence from the s/w over the SW US. I feel like it could go either way right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Would be nice of the nrn stream look continued to dig that ULL south and flatten the flow a bit. Keep the trough stretched and limit influence from the s/w over the SW US. I feel like it could go either way right now. I like following your forecasts as you are very good at analysis. Would a colder solution help Long Island with more snow/mix, or is our goose cooked on this event already, with cold rain 90 percent of event. I don't see any warmer than 39/39 to 40/40 for Long Island. 45/45 is not happening. I think SNE rots to 38/38 at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I like following your forecasts as you are very good at analysis. Would a colder solution help Long Island with more snow/mix, or is our goose cooked on this event already, with cold rain 90 percent of event. I don't see any warmer than 39/39 to 40/40 for Long Island. 45/45 is not happening. I think SNE rots to 38/38 at best. The euro would give LI some snow too, although 850 temps warm rapidly there. It's definitely not a great look for LI, but like SNE.....you want a flatter look to help keep the front end more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 GFS still with a stronger low on guidance, but seems like a decent front ender. It's also closer to something with the follow up wave on the s coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Good setup for the nrn CT valley to stay cool. I don't think my area will torch too badly, either. Very low lying and the ocean's mouth stuffed with ice. I never seen anything like it...not even Leon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 GFS still with a stronger low on guidance, but seems like a decent front ender. It's also closer to something with the follow up wave on the s coast. man that thing destroys the MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 man that thing destroys the MA It's got my attention too. Just a very complicated scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I actually agree with you, but it's just my gut. I think it's important to emphasize that sometimes. All I was saying, is to come in here with more than wishcasting and not looking at anything. He does that, but whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 man that thing destroys the MA You know what we need to do, right? Bag those isobars in the lead wave, then amp the $u*k out of the second. Just had my roof cleared. Brint it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 When you say destroys the Mid Atlantic, are you meaning with Snow? And is that the second wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 When you say destroys the Mid Atlantic, are you meaning with Snow? And is that the second wave? yes prolific overunning with an exceptional thermal contrast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 You know what we need to do, right? Bag put hr isobars in the lead wave, then amp the $u*k out of the second. Just had my roof cleared. Brint it. yep, won"t take much either but I have weenie goggles on ya know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Ginxy, does that get up here into SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Ginxy, does that get up here into SNE? no, south coast LI get grazed but something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 All I was saying, is to come in here with more than wishcasting and not looking at anything. He does that, but whatever. I know what you mean, and am not trying to argue. But I think it's ok to say that you have a hunch that something will trend in a certain direction...what is wrong is trying to interpret guidance in a manner that that is simply incorrect. I understand that guidance right now is ugly....I just have a hunch that it may continue to cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 yep, won"t take much either but I have weenie goggles on ya know I think scenario one is achievable, but getting that wave up here will be tough....esp. n of the pike. Not sure that is realistic.....but I'm sure an outter cirrus cloud for the follow up wave will ream with doe oes to bury Weymouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Canadian had some similarities to the 00z EC. I think at this stage, you want it to be as flat as possible. No chance of it going underneath us and not taint, so might as well get it weaker. It also may open up the door for any wave to develop afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Wow, Euro colder again...that probably keeps far NNE all snow. Pretty good front ender for SNE too...esp pike region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Wow, Euro colder again...that probably keeps far NNE all snow. Pretty good front ender for SNE too...esp pike region. tic toc skiing at SR gonna rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Oh...okay.. Didn' see this thread... Yeah, I mentioned this also in the other thread that there is that interesting follow-up impulse riding up W of the baroclinic zone once it has cleared E/S... That can materialize upglide QPF ANA style, indeed... Or more, depending - agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Wow, Euro colder again...that probably keeps far NNE all snow. Pretty good front ender for SNE too...esp pike region. Pike to the coast (BOS) verbatim ? If so, Odds lookin better than 50/50 to break it this next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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