PB GFI Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 What's the euro show for it?? Conservative maps are 4 to 6 from KNYC S . That wave will come out of the Tenn Valley to the Delmarva . I think it will look better tomorrow than it does today , which looks a lot better than yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Calling ALL SNOW Calling ALL SNOW , you are going to like wave 3 my man . One of those rare instances where you are rooting on the stronger SE Ridge that the Euro is showing so the overruning boundary stalls out closer to us. I generally like shading closer to the Euro idea since the GFS tends flatten the SE Ridge out too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 One of those rare instances where you are rooting on the stronger SE Ridge that the Euro is showing so the overruning boundary stalls out closer to us. I generally like shading closer to the Euro idea since the GFS tends flatten the SE Ridge out too much. ecmwf_z500a_eus_5.png gfs_z500a_eus_17.png 100 % correct . If there is more energy you will get a little bit more of a neg tilt . The arctic front can only push S so far , so if there is a SE ridge it will force this N . I think SLP forms in Tenn Valley and runs to the Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 BTW the wave 2 " rainstorm " is gone NW of NYC its Snow and Ice . As per the Euro and UKMET . The UKMET likes both systems now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 BTW the wave 2 " rainstorm " is gone NW of NYC its Snow and Ice . As per the Euro and UKMET . The UKMET likes both systems now . What did the euro show for NYC for wave 2? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 BTW the wave 2 " rainstorm " is gone NW of NYC its Snow and Ice . As per the Euro and UKMET . The UKMET likes both systems now . What's the time frame for days for each wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 What did the euro show for NYC for wave 2? Sent from my iPhone ICE in NWNJ LHV and Westchester , There the BL is 32 or lower its plus 5 at 850 and .4 falls . The UKMET looks colder . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 What's the time frame for days for each wave? Wave 2 Wed Wave 3 Thrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 ICE in NWNJ LHV and Westchester , There the BL is 32 or lower its plus 5 at 850 and .4 falls . The UKMET looks colder . Wow got to imagine NYC doesn't Get out of the 30s Wed with that, or does it warm after? Sounds like much less qpf now too? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Wow got to imagine NYC doesn't Get out of the 30s Wed with that, or does it warm after? Sounds like much less qpf now too? Sent from my iPhone At hour 66 its 36 at KNYC while ICE is going off NW . The City gets to 45 eventually after the precip leaves and then cools right back down in time for wave 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 100 % correct . If there is more energy you will get a little bit more of a neg tilt . The arctic front can only push S so far , so if there is a SE ridge it will force this N . I think SLP forms in Tenn Valley and runs to the Delmarva That 200KT jet entrance region is impressive for an overruning snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 That 200KT jet entrance region is impressive for an overruning snow event. gfsUS_250_spd_096.gif I have always like the bigger systems at the end of cold patterns . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 eps agrees with the euro…but that has not been a lock at all this winter. The flood threat for Wed is absolutely gone now, very little rain is going to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 eps agrees with the euro…but that has not been a lock at all this winter. The flood threat for Wed is absolutely gone now, very little rain is going to fall. Wait , we were promised a rainstorm . THIS time they were certain . " 1st time I am humping a rainstorm " Really the second , but yes the pattern is too cold and the BL can not get out of the way as fast at the 850s rip over head . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Wave 2 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 At hour 66 its 36 at KNYC while ICE is going off NW . The City gets to 45 eventually after the precip leaves and then cools right back down in time for wave 3A daytime ice storm in March, that's gotta be extremely rare for our area to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 A daytime ice storm in March, that's gotta be extremely rare for our area to say the least There is literally a daytime ice storm happening right now for most of the MidAtlantic. Not that rare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 A daytime ice storm in March, that's gotta be extremely rare for our area to say the least Gone is your 50 and rain . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I have always like the bigger systems at the end of cold patterns . This almost has a Feb 94 overruning feel to it today as the Euro is modeling it. And that was also late innings in a record cold pattern. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1994/us0209.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 This almost has a Feb 94 overruning feel to it today as the Euro is modeling it. And that was also late innings in a record cold pattern. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1994/us0209.php This one has the look of the Primary cutting further W . But CAD is getting more impressive . It is getting colder at the surface and the 18z NAM has snow not ice on the front end . Then we wait for wave 3 . If its there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I'll wait for the rest of the panels as those south sagging fronts can do funky things, but by all indications the GFS should show a nice snowstorm on Thursday for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 Things getting interesting quick here…gfs 6-12 for thursday now also has a good bit of frz rain tuesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 It could just as easily be a non event but more models are picking up on it so that'll keep things interesting. Go SE ridge Go!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 WAVE 3 IS A CRUSH JOB ON THE 18Z GFS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 WAVE 3 IS A CRUSH JOB ON THE 18Z GFS . Yes sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 WAVE 3 IS A CRUSH JOB ON THE 18Z GFS . Timing is great Late wed night into thursday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 WAVE 3 IS A CRUSH JOB ON THE 18Z GFS . And the ratios look great due to the proximity to the Arctic front and thicknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Wow have things have changed for this week!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Timing is great Late wed night into thursday morning So I would assume the snow would begin a couple of hours either side of midnight Thursday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 So I would assume the snow would begin a couple of hours either side of midnight Thursday morning? Yes. Starts out as some light rain/sleet. Similar set up to march 2007. That's how you go from 60-7 in 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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