February pattern discussion

[CoastalWx]

The ensembles have shown a deep -PNA in the 11-15 for like a week now and it gets muted every time....the EPO reloads keep happening and they seem to be far enough east that they don't allow the deep trough to dominate the PAC NW.

 

Look at it today. Muted again. The ridge does retro, but it's trying to hold on further east near the west coast. It definitely seems like the GEFS GOAK trough idea was bogus too. 

[Damage In Tolland]

I also noticed a few posters getting perhaps a little defensive when stating that we are going to undergo a few changes. It doesn't mean no snow..lol. The ridge retros which naturally opens up the door to a different storm track. It may mean rapid fire moderate events, or some taint..we don't know. It's still an active and overall BN pattern.

Pickles mostly

[Typhoon Tip]

Look at it today. Muted again. The ridge does retro, but it's trying to hold on further east near the west coast. It definitely seems like the GEFS GOAK trough idea was bogus too. 

 

Yes ... this is precisely what I was also trying to point out, in my own long winded wordy style  

 

But yeah, the flipping of the EPO sign gets pushed back now four times in row ... Now it's all the way to march 7!  It was Feb 25-ish a week ago.  

 

I think back to last year, when a similar -EPO dominant winter took place, and the seemingly perpetually depressed index values (less than zero) did exactly the same thing; the curve was constantly sloped upward out in time, but would equally constantly correct downward.  I wonder why that is though?   Something like the models trying to normalize things, then having to admit in nearer terms not to normalize - haha. 

 

Anyway, I don't think this winter has an abrupt end until the EPO really does flip. Otherwise, North America is just a hemispheric chosen conveyor in the larger scheme of balancing global therms.  You know the drill ... sometimes Eurasia cashes in on cold/storminess, while over on this side alleviates.  Seemed like in the mid 2000's that was the case often.  But we did gets some seriously blue vodka cold in 2003 - 2005 winters.  

[Damage In Tolland]

CFS keeps the cold around straight thru April ..Please have that verify

[Typhoon Tip]

CFS keeps the cold around straight thru April ..Please have that verify

 

Last year's very similar -EPO dominated winter protracted right through to the end of March.  In fact, that massive near-miss bomb at the end of March ...sort of wrapped of the last hurrah of cold, and rotated it up into eastern Canada... A week later, more meaningful thawing airs arrived.  

 

I kind of see ...or suspect that whatever forces ultimately gave rise to persistent -EPO last year is really still our current affair.  Doesn't mean we go to the end of March ... but just that there are similarities.  We'll see. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Last year's very similar -EPO dominated winter protracted right through to the end of March.  In fact, that massive near-miss bomb at the end of March ...sort of wrapped of the last hurrah of cold, and rotated it up into eastern Canada... A week later, more meaningful thawing airs arrived.  

 

I kind of see ...or suspect that whatever forces ultimately gave rise to persistent -EPO last year is really still our current affair.  Doesn't mean we go to the end of March ... but just that there are similarities.  We'll see. 

It's funny because largely the 80's were dominated by a -EPO and we saw many BN snowfall years. The Pacific setup this year ,in tandem with the -EPO has allowed us to have a historic ,iron clad once in a lifetime 4-8 week period. 

 

Same thing happened in Chicago last winter

[40/70 Benchmark]

Some may flip out, but we haven't had another major snowstorm since Bouchard made that statement.

Something has flipped....maybe it wasn't the pattern, call it whatever you want, but this isn't the same regime.

 

30"/week, 3"/week....what's 27" between weenies?

 

(Runs and hides from scooter)

[CoastalWx]

It's not the relaxation..that was in the cards. It's the other statements. 

[Ginx snewx]

Balls cold right through first week of March

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's not the relaxation..that was in the cards. It's the other statements. 

Well, it depends on how you perceived it.

Not to open up this can of weenies again, I, along with the general public, I'm sure, took it as an end to the train of major snowstorms.

 

Some feel no more nor 'easter meant a transition to the Saharan dessert and an end to winter...not how I took it.

 

I think the guy is a tool, and not that great of a met, but I could see the message he was trying to convey.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Some may flip out, but we haven't had another major snowstorm since Bouchard made that statement.

Something has flipped....maybe it wasn't the pattern, call it whatever you want, but this isn't the same regime.

30"/week, 3"/week....what's 27" between weenies?

(Runs and hides from scooter)

Instead of just really cold, we got epic cold that's swuashing most systems aside of a weak swfe

[40/70 Benchmark]

Balls cold right through first week of March

Without fail.

 

I can always tell when a model run is boring during the winter because you focus on the cold.

[ORH_wxman]

Well, it depends on how you perceived it.

Not to open up this can of weenies again, I, along with the general public, I'm sure, took it as an end to the train of major snowstorms.

 

Some feel no more nor 'easter meant a transition to the Saharan dessert and an end to winter...not how I took it.

 

I think the guy is a tool, and not that great of a met, but I could see the message he was trying to convey.

 

 

That we wouldn't get another major storm?

 

That was a strange statement IMHO. Not based on anything really concrete other than gambling that we wouldn't get a massive storm...does the public really give a rat's azz if we get 3-4 moderate events and still are receiving ball-shriveling cold? My guess is no.

 

Also, I have no idea how you can forecast what would happen into March in terms of avoiding a major snowstorm...that's just not possible IMHO. But I was never a long range expert, so maybe there's something I missed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That we wouldn't get another major storm?

 

That was a strange statement IMHO. Not based on anything really concrete other than gambling that we wouldn't get a massive storm...does the public really give a rat's azz if we get 3-4 moderate events and still are receiving ball-shriveling cold? My guess is no.

 

Also, I have no idea how you can forecast what would happen into March in terms of avoiding a major snowstorm...that's just not possible IMHO. But I was never a long range expert, so maybe there's something I missed.

i just think he meant an end to that run of major storms.....I didn't take it as no more snow until next season.

 

You and scooter really took it very literal and as an absolute statement.

I think you did miss something in that regard.

[CoastalWx]

That we wouldn't get another major storm?

That was a strange statement IMHO. Not based on anything really concrete other than gambling that we wouldn't get a massive storm...does the public really give a rat's azz if we get 3-4 moderate events and still are receiving ball-shriveling cold? My guess is no.

Also, I have no idea how you can forecast what would happen into March in terms of avoiding a major snowstorm...that's just not possible IMHO. But I was never a long range expert, so maybe there's something I missed.

You didn't miss anything. It's frankly rather irresponsible IMO.

[CoastalWx]

But what defines major? 10" 15" 2'? I know what you mean Ray, but it still bothers me.

[ORH_wxman]

i just think he meant an end to that run of major storms.....I didn't take it as no more snow until next season.

 

You and scooter really took it very literal and as an absolute statement.

I think you did miss something in that regard.

 

 

Well the pattern could have stayed exactly the same and we might not see another "major" storm. I didn't get the statement. We were getting lucky too during the last 3 weeks...in the middle of a major pattern relaxation we managed a 60 hour overrunning event that gave BOS nearly 2 feet of snow...why couldn't it happen again?

[CoastalWx]

You can get a quiet stretch in a great pattern and then something fluky to dump 20" amid a 2-3 week quiet stretch. It's just another bizzare call. Lets not forget the storm he thought would go out to sea, only to give Boston 16" last week, and oh yeah...the "warmer" patter coming after mid February. All great calls.

[40/70 Benchmark]

You can get a quiet stretch in a great pattern and then something fluky to dump 20" amid a 2-3 week quiet stretch. It's just another bizzare call. Lets not forget the storm he thought would go out to sea, only to give Boston 16" last week, and oh yeah...the "warmer" patter coming after mid February. All great calls.

I think he's a crappy met...not arguing that.

 

Whatever, we disagree on something that quite frankly isn't very important.

[40/70 Benchmark]

But what defines major? 10" 15" 2'? I know what you mean Ray, but it still bothers me.

I'm just going to drop it.

 

I agree he sucks...we just interpreted that one line differently.

[CoastalWx]

I'm just going to drop it.

I agree he sucks...we just interpreted that one line differently.

I actually think he knows his stuff, I just think he just doesn't give a crap and makes some bizzare calls to see if he looks good or not. Anyways moving on lol.

[FRWEATHA]

I'm just going to drop it.

I agree he sucks...we just interpreted that one line differently.

He's not in the same league as some of the mets here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well the pattern could have stayed exactly the same and we might not see another "major" storm. I didn't get the statement. We were getting lucky too during the last 3 weeks...in the middle of a major pattern relaxation we managed a 60 hour overrunning event that gave BOS nearly 2 feet of snow...why couldn't it happen again?

He probably got a little carried away and went with his gut on something that he knew would only be remembered by sickos like us.

Agreed.....but TBH, I'm of the belief that sometimes you have to do that in meteorology.

I know I do it.

 

I was adamant that we'd see a 2013 like comeback, and some really good mets were tentative.

Never lowered my range.

Guess what??

 

2013 comeback put to shame.

My range was too low. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

He's not in the same league as some of the mets here.

Most of them aren't.

 

I'd take Will and Scott over any met not named Harvey Leonard.....but I'm sure Will would put him to shame on memory of obscure events of under 5" from the 1950's.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I actually think he knows his stuff, I just think he just doesn't give a crap and makes some bizzare calls to see if he looks good or not. Anyways moving on lol.

I would agree with that.

[FRWEATHA]

Most of them aren't.

I'd take Will and Scott over any met not named Harvey Leonard.....but I'm sure Will would put him to shame on memory of obscure events of under 5" from the 1950's.

Agreed 100%. I've really come to rely upon them in this forum.

[Typhoon Tip]

Well, in any event... the very most recent GEFs computations have swung the pendulum ...I'd say a little more convincingly in favor of a warmer pattern emergence. This is not to be mistaken with the onset of Spring; though, year to year, a 'back-break' sort of pattern or single event, do oft enough take place ... after which a return becomes more difficult. In a baser philosophical argument, yeah... you could say it's that particularly season's time.  We'll have to see how the chips fall, but ... if this teleconnector spread took place at the end of December, it would still mean a plausible warm pattern shift.  

 

Also, this has nothing to do with whether March or early April can produce a big event(s) -- I don't ever speak or write in certain tenths; intrinsically, this is just how the probabilities are sloped in my mind.   

 

Without laboring the reader this time .. (yeah right!) I'd first like to point out that this is based purely on the GEFs -based teleconnectors, and does not take any consideration whatsoever wrt the other guidance type derivatives.  Although, what does spark some interest in me is that there is a subtle sort of melody in play across Euro, GGEM, etc... that does arouse sentiment toward generally lessening the frenetic activity that's so characterized the "the big month".  Perhaps it is a reflection of (below) in their own rites.

 

 

1)  As perhaps a finale cold wave, the PNA is showing a fairly impressive short duration rise there. It doesn't go positive of course .. but an ~ 1 to 2 SD mode change does suggest something is passing through the domain enough consider western heights.  The bottom right EPO signal is showing an in tandem sag; the PNA rise is probably thus more to do with the fact that the EPO and PNA share some domain space, and since for that intra-week period the EPO becomes more negative, the PNA responds by having to rise.  NW transport into Canada should continue during that period of time, if not in route to the n-tier/Lakes/NE regions such as it has so many times this season. And of course..any sort of incursion may be book-ended by storminess/chances.

 

2) The PNA then renews the negative mode, as the EPO has finally risen over 0.  Firstly, the eventual rising EPO has been signaled for almost a week's worth of runs. For a couple of days, it was pushed back deeper into March. Yesterday, the push out in time was all the way to March 7. Now, it has popped two days sooner, to March 5.  Also, this is the higher magnitude positive since this signal's onset, to date. Not demonstratively high ... no, but, given to the erstwhile PNA being so negative (at CPC as well...) the combination really should signal a paradigm shift. The better interpretation is a flatter Pacific flow into western N/A, and continental katabatic warm invasion quite plausibly making for an impressive sensible regime change.  

 

Caveat emptor: Despite this stronger observed re-emergence of that changing EPO sign, it is still possible the mode change is GEFs-rushed.  Also, in that throughout last season and this one alike (I suspect both influenced by similar flow biases) +EPOs have persistently damped if not failed to verify. Which is why I started off with "...a little more convincingly."  I'd like to overcome that secondary sort of persistence signal before getting to warm giddy.  

 

Which by the way... please do not respond with "eventually winter has to end."  That's a psycho-babble bargaining tactic where one doesn't have to admit that a winter like pattern is dying.  Again, this type of longer lead signal would potentially impose an impressive thaw in ides of winter, just as much as a few might by inclined to just blame it on Spring altogether. But you would be wrong. There is a disconnect.  Warming sun angle may also add to the fervor (should things indeed break warmer), but it still is not just for being Spring. You see ... I'd like to delude myself into thinking that I am actually trying to contribute to weather -sciences interested ilk, and not just a bastion of antithetical S.A.D. loons..

 

Lastly, that ( 3 ) positive run of the NAO has been nothing shy of silently astounding in its own rite. We just suffered (...well, celebrated for some) one of, if not, the most intense combinations of cold and snow in history, recovering seasonal statistics in a matter of weeks!  Through it all, the negative NAO was no where to be found.  For me, it's no surprise -- I've discussed why in the passed.  Not going to get into now.  But, the correlation on the circulation type with that signal there, is for the westerlies to lift in latitude over the OV/MA/NE regions. Should the extend ( 1 ) and ( 2 ) pan out while ( 3 ) is on-going, ...heh, toast.  The EPO -related circulation type has been damping that NAO signal, so losing said -EPO, guess what comes rushing back?   It's like a tide running out..

[snowman19]

Well, in any event... the very most recent GEFs computations have swung the pendulum ...I'd say a little more convincingly in favor of a warmer pattern emergence. This is not to be mistaken with the onset of Spring; though, year to year, a 'back-break' sort of pattern or single event, do oft enough take place ... after which a return becomes more difficult. In a baser philosophical argument, yeah... you could say it's that particularly season's time. We'll have to see how the chips fall, but ... if this teleconnector spread took place at the end of December, it would still mean a plausible warm pattern shift.

Also, this has nothing to do with whether March or early April can produce a big event(s) -- I don't ever speak or write in certain tenths; intrinsically, this is just how the probabilities are sloped in my mind.

Without laboring the reader this time .. (yeah right!) I'd first like to point out that this is based purely on the GEFs -based teleconnectors, and does not take any consideration whatsoever wrt the other guidance type derivatives. Although, what does spark some interest in me is that there is a subtle sort of melody in play across Euro, GGEM, etc... that does arouse sentiment toward generally lessening the frenetic activity that's so characterized the "the big month". Perhaps it is a reflection of (below) in their own rites.

we.jpg

1) As perhaps a finale cold wave, the PNA is showing a fairly impressive short duration rise there. It doesn't go positive of course .. but an ~ 1 to 2 SD mode change does suggest something is passing through the domain enough consider western heights. The bottom right EPO signal is showing an in tandem sag; the PNA rise is probably thus more to do with the fact that the EPO and PNA share some domain space, and since for that intra-week period the EPO becomes more negative, the PNA responds by having to rise. NW transport into Canada should continue during that period of time, if not in route to the n-tier/Lakes/NE regions such as it has so many times this season. And of course..any sort of incursion may be book-ended by storminess/chances.

2) The PNA then renews the negative mode, as the EPO has finally risen over 0. Firstly, the eventual rising EPO has been signaled for almost a week's worth of runs. For a couple of days, it was pushed back deeper into March. Yesterday, the push out in time was all the way to March 7. Now, it has popped two days sooner, to March 5. Also, this is the higher magnitude positive since this signal's onset, to date. Not demonstratively high ... no, but, given to the erstwhile PNA being so negative (at CPC as well...) the combination really should signal a paradigm shift. The better interpretation is a flatter Pacific flow into western N/A, and continental katabatic warm invasion quite plausibly making for an impressive sensible regime change.

Caveat emptor: Despite this stronger observed re-emergence of that changing EPO sign, it is still possible the mode change is GEFs-rushed. Also, in that throughout last season and this one alike (I suspect both influenced by similar flow biases) +EPOs have persistently damped if not failed to verify. Which is why I started off with "...a little more convincingly." I'd like to overcome that secondary sort of persistence signal before getting to warm giddy.

Which by the way... please do not respond with "eventually winter has to end." That's a psycho-babble bargaining tactic where one doesn't have to admit that a winter like pattern is dying. Again, this type of longer lead signal would potentially impose an impressive thaw in ides of winter, just as much as a few might by inclined to just blame it on Spring altogether. But you would be wrong. There is a disconnect. Warming sun angle may also add to the fervor (should things indeed break warmer), but it still is not just for being Spring. You see ... I'd like to delude myself into thinking that I am actually trying to contribute to weather -sciences interested ilk, and not just a bastion of antithetical S.A.D. loons..

Lastly, that ( 3 ) positive run of the NAO has been nothing shy of silently astounding in its own rite. We just suffered (...well, celebrated for some) one of, if not, the most intense combinations of cold and snow in history, recovering seasonal statistics in a matter of weeks! Through it all, the negative NAO was no where to be found. For me, it's no surprise -- I've discussed why in the passed. Not going to get into now. But, the correlation on the circulation type with that signal there, is for the westerlies to lift in latitude over the OV/MA/NE regions. Should the extend ( 1 ) and ( 2 ) pan out while ( 3 ) is on-going, ...heh, toast. The EPO -related circulation type has been damping that NAO signal, so losing said -EPO, guess what comes rushing back? It's like a tide running out..

The AO has been relentlessly positive too for the most part and the projected forecasts have it really skyrocketing soon

[Typhoon Tip]

Fwiw - NCEP echoing the same sentiments above..

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
943 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

VALID 12Z WED FEB 25 2015 - 12Z SUN MAR 01 2015


...PATTERN CHANGE...

THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AT THE MEDIUM RANGE, WITH A NEW TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST AND A RECENTERING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE UPSHOT OF THESE CHANGES IN THE WEST IS A CRASHING OF THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH OF LATE AND A REINTRODUCTION OF LOWLAND RAINS AND HIGH-COUNTRY SNOWS. IN THE EAST, ONE LAST ARCTIC HIGH SETTLING FARTHER EAST IMPLIES THAT THE CHANCES FOR SNOW OR ICE FROM ANY SOUTHERN-STREAM WAVE ARE DIMINISHING, WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION FAR MORE LIKELY AS THE LAST OF THE FRIGID HIGHS RETREATS OFFSHORE DAY 7 AND WARM ADVECTION FUELS ANOTHER ROUND OF ICE AND SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN.

CISCO

[Damage In Tolland]

Highly doubtful any of that transpires until the EPO changes. 

Wake us when it does