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Jan 23-24 Winter Storm Potential


Ollie Williams

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Nam looks like it has more of a neutral tilt at 36 and has the low more southeast comparing to 18z where it was over the eastern tip of LA and now has it in the Gulf south of the western tip of the FL panhandle. Dont know if this will help in subsequent runs. We shall see. Again it is the Nam, so...

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Ugh 850s are atrocious. Low literally right off the coast of MYR at 45.

 

Still looks like it's still over the GOM by then.  Temps don't look colder, in fact it looks to erode the cold faster.  This is a cold rain with pockets of a little ice and snow for the higher elevations.  It's looked this way for several runs now.

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Still looks like it's still over the GOM by then.  Temps don't look colder, in fact it looks to erode the cold faster.  This is a cold rain with pockets of a little ice and snow for the higher elevations.  It's looked this way for several runs now.

Has the Nam been significantly warmer compared to the other model output?

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Still looks like it's still over the GOM by then.  Temps don't look colder, in fact it looks to erode the cold faster.  This is a cold rain with pockets of a little ice and snow for the higher elevations.  It's looked this way for several runs now.

exactly..This really shouldn't surprise anyone.  Ever since this mornings 6z run.....

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I should say that over this entire hour, im sure I was pretty much wasting my time. Hell, the Nam was horrendous if im not mistaken for the forecast in Philly with that clipper today, so putting stock into the Nam is like putting stock back into Enron lol (ok maybe that was corny but just sayin...)

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I should say that over this entire hour, im sure I was pretty much wasting my time. Hell, the Nam was horrendous if im not mistaken for the forecast in Philly with that clipper today, so putting stock into the Nam is like putting stock back into Enron lol (ok maybe that was corny but just sayin...)

Hope you're right. That being said, usually the nam is the one that overdoes the cold... So to see it being a blowtorch is troubling. I want to see the euro, which has been the coldest for the mountains, see if it holds serve one more time before I write this off. Real shame about the mountains, this is literally the perfect time period to chase.
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Hope you're right. That being said, usually the nam is the one that overdoes the cold... So to see it being a blowtorch is troubling. I want to see the euro, which has been the coldest for the mountains, see if it holds serve one more time before I write this off. Real shame about the mountains, this is literally the perfect time period to chase.

Yeah my mind is blown how this doesn't workout for the mtns...you can't get much better of a track for us up here and to get a rainstorm is unreal. Don't know what to think right now

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Yeah my mind is blown how this doesn't workout for the mtns...you can't get much better of a track for us up here and to get a rainstorm is unreal. Don't know what to think right now

we lack a cold air feed and the air mass in front of the storm is not very cold. If we had a colder air mass in place before hand then your area would come out alot better.
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The 12z EPS mean "snowfall" is about the same as last night's run, give or take.

KCLT: 0.4" - Charlotte

KHNZ: 0.4" - Hendersonville

KAKH: 0.8" - Gastonia

KGSO: 1.6" - Greensboro

KGSP: 2.2" - Greenville-Spartanburg

KINT: 2.6" - Winston-Salem

KHKY: 4.0" - Hickory

KMWK: 4.1" - Mt. Airy

KUKF: 4.5" - Wilkesboro

KTNB: 5.8" - Boone

KAVL: 6.0" - Asheville

Usual huge disclaimers, yadadada... just FWIW...

My first thought with this, was that KAVL is practically in Hendersonville so how those numbers were that far apart for the 2, was very perplexing. Then after I looked it up, I realized that KHNZ is the town of Henderson, down east of Raleigh, not Hendersonville in WNC.

Either way, I'm taking all off this with a grain of salt. Many grains of salt, actually.

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My first thought with this, was that KAVL is practically in Hendersonville so how those numbers were that far apart for the 2, was very perplexing. Then after I looked it up, I realized that KHNZ is the town of Henderson, down east of Raleigh, not Hendersonville in WNC.

Either way, I'm taking all off this with a grain of salt. Many grains of salt, actually.

 

As you should.  And, oops, yeah, that was Henderson, LOL...  The 00z GFS looks terrible, even for the mountains for the most part.  Think the goose might be cooked with this one.  We'll see if the Euro caves.

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Well, at least we don't have to worry about this thing only skipping us... Gfs slides it offshore, and only cape cod gets a true beating, kinda like that "superbomb" last year. Chances are this will trend away from the euro's amped up solution and towards the weaker east gfs solution. Starting to wonder if the GFS gets decried so often because it's truly a bad model or because it is usually less fun than the euro and it's not what people want to see.

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