ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yeah...it is already happening. While the models that were crushing them...the NAM and Euro had price really filling in by this point, the reality is that it hasn't. Things are not backsliding, and the forum is starting to go into a full nuclear meltdown. If they get 3 inches..oh my.[/quote LOL.....right??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Wow. Almost 1400 mad east coast madder than hel...there storm going down the tubes. We might end up the winners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Light Snow and 25 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yeah...it is already happening. While the models that were crushing them...the NAM and Euro had price really filling in by this point, the reality is that it hasn't. Things are not backsliding, and the forum is starting to go into a full nuclear meltdown. If they get 3 inches..oh my.[/quote LOL.....right??? NWS officially at 7.5. That is the highest report in the county, so my guess is there are scattered areas of 8 or 9 in AGC as there is usually a good variance. It would be hilarious if we end up with more than NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 I just peeked over at the NYC forums and I kinda feel bad for those guys....lol but seriously I think the storm is just taking a little longer to get started there....precip just hitting a wall in CT but radar showing a push westward....for the sake of the national media, as well as those guys on that thread-I hope they see more than 3"....haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 radar holding serve, although it shrunk a tad. base composite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I just peeked over at the NYC forums and I kinda feel bad for those guys....lol but seriously I think the storm is just taking a little longer to get started there....precip just hitting a wall in CT but radar showing a push westward....for the sake of the national media, as well as those guys on that thread-I hope they see more than 3"....haha Nam just came out, and it basically cut NYC's QPF by 2/3. They now get about 5-8 inches of snow as compared to the massive 20-25 the earlier NAM had. And BTW, I don't feel bad for them at all, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 As of 7:45 Central Park already had 4.5" http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off They won't get 2 feet, but they could still get over a foot. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 000 SXUS71 KPBZ 270128 RERPIT RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 825 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 ...RECORD SNOWFALL FOR THE DATE AT PITTSBURGH... THE SNOWFALL FOR JANUARY 26 AT PITTSBURGH WAS 4.3 INCHES. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD OF 4.2 INCHES FROM 1963. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Well I must say that was a decent storm. Hard to measure but I have about a 9 inch snowpack so my guess is around 6 or 7 inches. Anyway the weather seems to stay busy for us with a clipper and possible storm. I think what I missed most was the snowpack. Good to see us get a some snow on the ground for a change and it will stick around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plumres Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Total snow on the ground in my yard is 9 inches. About 7 inches was from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 0z GFS has a bit more juice for next Sun/Mon. Hopefully the 500 mb setup improves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'm not sure if it was mentioned, but this storm for us was pretty amazingly well modeled. All the models seemed to lock in on this solution 4 or 5 days ago, and also, picked up fairly early on the trof on the back end. This is one of our better storms in the last couple years..all be a lighter longer duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'm not sure if it was mentioned, but this storm for us was pretty amazingly well modeled. All the models seemed to lock in on this solution 4 or 5 days ago, and also, picked up fairly early on the trof on the back end. This is one of our better storms in the last couple years..all be a lighter longer duration event. Agreed. It's funny what happens with expectations. I got 7 inches and was happy with the storm. People in New York, Philly and NJ will get 7 inches and are devastated because they thought they were getting 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Agreed. It's funny what happens with expectations. I got 7 inches and was happy with the storm. People in New York, Philly and NJ will get 7 inches and are devastated because they thought they were getting 2 feet. Honestly, the people in NYC have been so spoiled the last several years that if a storm isn't 10+ inches they lose their minds. Even sometimes that isn't enough. Also, when we bust, it generally isn't 2 feet to 8 inches, it is more like we were supposed to get 4-8 inches but instead get 2 inches then get slop, which is WAY worse IMO than what happens in NYC. I would rather bust from 2 feet to 1 foot. I will say that if I was in NJ with a 12-16 forecast, I would be pretty ticked off right now though. I doubt most of NJ gets more than 3 or 4 more inches, with a large portion of it getting nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 What's horrible is the ban they put in place from Philly to NYC. Nobody was allowed out, everything closed and for what? 6" of snow. People ask why the public never take forecasters serious. Anyways NYC has gotten like 7-9" it seems, Long Island has gotten hammered. Some areas are over 24" Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Boston is pretty tho. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Picture from last night, gotta have the picnic table shot. I measured about 5.5-6 inches of new snow total, and about 9.25 in the areas that had little melt before this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Is that whole line of snow going to pivot towards us? That is the way it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Moderate snow in oakland and the city. roads are getting pretty bad. The snow seems to be sticking immediately so be careful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Looks to me like the short range models really shined for our area and the coastal areas for this storm. They all had our area with 6 or more and persistent snows, and that verified. People are going to criticize the EURO, but I think it was onto the super clipper idea much quicker that the others. Yea it painted insane amounts further west than it should have, but it was almost spot on with the location of the storm, just missed that it wouldn't strengthen as quickly as it was modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 . Reduced: 88% of original size [ 800 x 600 ] - Click to view full image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'm not sure if it was mentioned, but this storm for us was pretty amazingly well modeled. All the models seemed to lock in on this solution 4 or 5 days ago, and also, picked up fairly early on the trof on the back end. This is one of our better storms in the last couple years..all be a lighter longer duration event. I'd disagree to an extent. If you're talking strictly Allegheny county, then I'd agree, but almost all of the models underestimated the warm-air intrusion for the southern counties and into northern West Virginia. Even the NWS still had us at 4-6" less than 24 hours before it was obvious we'd never verify. The short-term models seemed to catch onto the idea eventually, but even some runs of those gave us 2-3" and we barely scraped together anything. I'm thinking the upcoming system(s) will be much of the same; fine for you guys in the city, but south of that there isn't much to look forward to. None of the teleconnections are favorable long-term except the PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Agh county special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Agh county special. I'm sticking with 1-3" south of a line bisecting Masontown, PA West to East. Waynesburg up to southern Allegheny probably 3-6". then 6-10" around the City and some points into Butler county. Looks like my own forecast largely verified. That's the one positive I can take from this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Well heres the 12z Euro. Maybe this is our Apps runner with good snowfall rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Has the warm tongue look - but it was way SE yesterday so we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 CMC and GFS have similar tracks Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 38% 1024 x 683 (161.45K) Reduced 38% 1024 x 683 (173.29K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 If this app runner comes to fruition ,,when would it start? ???? What's time frame. ,,... Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Why does this look so different than the weatherbell map? Weatherbell has us maybe getting 2-4. This has us in 6+???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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