Rdd9108 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 If this app runner comes to fruition ,,when would it start? ???? What's time frame. ,,... Thanks Well as you may know its hard getting the timing down but between the 1st and second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Why does this look so different than the weatherbell map? Weatherbell has us maybe getting 2-4. This has us in 6+???? They must use a different algorithm for calculating snow fall. From what I was able to piece together it tracks from WV into NE PA, so given that I'd say that is a prime warm tongue scenario and would hedge on the WxBell(since it shows lower totals), although its probably to high for extreme SW PA as we all know how the slop line is further North than modeled most of the time. The trajectory of the track looks ok, we just need it further South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 If this app runner comes to fruition ,,when would it start? ???? What's time frame. ,,... Thanks Would be Sunday into Monday time frame as currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Looks like the Thursday clipper is trending North on models so doubtful we get any meaningful snow, and more likely rain then some snow showers as the cold front passes barring a major shift. Edit: Just read NWS discussion and they seem a bit more bullish for frozen and or concerns with below freezing ground temps and rain so I guess it still merits watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 App runner is supposed to be our storm in jan -feb. I hope no slop issues. There high pressure to north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 App runner is supposed to be our storm in jan -feb. I hope no slop issues. There high pressure to north. This isn't a true apps runner. Its more of a west to east bowling ball system. That being said if it runs too far north we could have slop issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Dam. Any chance. Of it blowing up down in gulf. ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 say no to Ice. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Light snow over the last hour or so has covered up the roads again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 18z GFS is appealing. Probably change at 0z, though. Since it's six days out, I won't post a snowmap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 48 hrs of off and on snow from this storm looks to be winding down soon. Very impressed with the modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Saw on KDKA, we are right below our seasonal average by a couple of tenths. We are a little over 19 inches so far. Way above our Jan average. Possible 1-2 with the Thur-Fri system. Lets get February off to a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Idk about 1-2. I would think an inch if the cold air can come in fast enough. I am more interested for the weekend system and then the arctic hounds seem to want to visit right after that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 NOAA is talking about Sunday storm in there discussion. What could be in our favor is not a complexed system as previous.this long term guidance can be accurate to a certain extent..like mad man Mateo says. Bowling ball ones come in on one spot and leave on the same longaatude. ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Low tracks too close to us on this run but strengthens to 981 in Central PA. Looks like I am stepping away again. I am bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Reduced: 64% of original size [ 988 x 678 ] - Click to view full image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Reduced: 64% of original size [ 988 x 678 ] - Click to view full image Is the Euro a bit south and east of the GFS? The GFS looks like it's still giving us slop for a lot of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethel975 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Hey everyone! I really enjoy reading here, but I honestly don't know much about models. What are the odds that the Euro verifies at this point? Just asking because I'm in the 12" area. I don't drive a 4-wheel drive, so if we are getting that much snow, I definitely need to get out and grab some stuff, lol. Don't get me wrong, my car is a beast in the snow, but at some point, it's definitely too much for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Hey everyone! I really enjoy reading here, but I honestly don't know much about models. What are the odds that the Euro verifies at this point? Just asking because I'm in the 12" area. I don't drive a 4-wheel drive, so if we are getting that much snow, I definitely need to get out and grab some stuff, lol. Don't get me wrong, my car is a beast in the snow, but at some point, it's definitely too much for it We're still about 5 days away, so a lot will change between now and then. This storm has been showing up for days now on all of the models so it could be something significant. Still a lot of time for things to change though. Fun to track anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Hey everyone! I really enjoy reading here, but I honestly don't know much about models. What are the odds that the Euro verifies at this point? Just asking because I'm in the 12" area. I don't drive a 4-wheel drive, so if we are getting that much snow, I definitely need to get out and grab some stuff, lol. Don't get me wrong, my car is a beast in the snow, but at some point, it's definitely too much for it Generally you need to wait until the energy gets sampled to get a better idea as to whether we are going to get anything significant. Should be late Friday or so to get sampling. So, dont take these models verbatim, especially this far out. They just give you the general idea that there is going to potentially be a significant storm affecting a large portion of the midwest and northeast. With the way the storm is currently modeled it is very common for warm air to come up into our area causing more of a mixed precip, rather than all snow, especially for Pittsburgh south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Is the Euro a bit south and east of the GFS? The GFS looks like it's still giving us slop for a lot of the event. It's hard to tell on the 24 hour panels, but it looks like the Euro may be a hair SE of the GFS. That being said, I think that stripe of pink that extends into SW PA is a pretty solid signature for a warm tongue given the track of the low. This snow algorithm may not take that into account very well. If this whole thing shifts SE but takes the same general track I think we will be in good shape. Some nice High pressure to the north nosing in with some legitimate arctic air too so we may see a trend towards colder depending how the storm evolves. Decent moisture connection as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Gfs was way north with snow ,,, euro has it a little south ,,with the high to the north this can push low further south,,also someone said on accu forum last night that this storm phased?? I have 4 small boys twins 5. Boy 3 boy 1 And wife pregnant again due in April girl this time. And I run my own company. I probily track these things more than I should. I get sucked in. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Gfs was way north with snow ,,, euro has it a little south ,,with the high to the north this can push low further south,,also someone said on accu forum last night that this storm phased?? I have 4 small boys twins 5. Boy 3 boy 1 And wife pregnant again due in April girl this time. And I run my own company. I probily track these things more than I should. I get sucked in. Lol It is phasing of the northern stream and a piece of the low sitting over the baja peninsula. How a big of a piece from that baja low phases and how soon determines the strength of the system. Another part to watch is how this clipper behaves if it phases in the PV after it passes us and heads north which would helps create some confluence with the highs pushing down. These 2 variables will determine the track of the storm. I think we all spend to much time tracking these things, more than we realize or would care to admit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethel975 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Thanks for the information everyone! This is why I follow this forum. When we had the 2 feet of snow a few years ago, all of you were calling it, but local mets were only calling for 6-8 tops. Had I not read it all here, I never would have been prepared for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Reduced 38% 1024 x 576 (853.69K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethel975 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Reduced 38% 1024 x 576 (853.69K) Definitely going to keep following this one. That's a lot of snow when you live in the middle of nowhere, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It is phasing of the northern stream and a piece of the low sitting over the baja peninsula. How a big of a piece from that baja low phases and how soon determines the strength of the system. Another part to watch is how this clipper behaves if it phases in the PV after it passes us and heads north which would helps create some confluence with the highs pushing down. These 2 variables will determine the track of the storm. I think we all spend to much time tracking these things, more than we realize or would care to admit. Yes. I. Hope we good track. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Reduced 38% 1024 x 576 (853.69K) Wow. 9.1 for pittsburgh. Wow. That can go up and down. ,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Man what a dramatic shift on the GFS. Went from a bombing low pressure to a strung out mess in 1 run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Man what a dramatic shift on the GFS. Went from a bombing low pressure to a strung out mess in 1 run Yeah, later phase and less energy involved. It will be interesting to see the ensembles, but I bet the OP may be on the SE edge but we shall see. If the Euro comes in more amped and west toss everything else. When has that ever failed anyone before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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