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deltadog03

Arctic Air Model Forecast/Verification

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Hey everyone!  I wanted to try something out here. It should help us really learn more about the forecast models this season and how they will handle Arctic air and the cold.  We know the models have REALLY struggled at times for the Fall and Winter.  I have chosen 9 cities around us, plus MY forecast for Macon for THUR am (~12z) and Thur pm (~18z)  I know there could be a degree or 2 +or- because of the fact that the high will come closer to 20z or 21z depending on what time zone.  So just remember that ok?  I am doing the MON 12z RUNS.....TUE 00z RUNS.....TUE 12z RUNS....WED 00z RUNS..... WED 12z RUNS....THU 00z RUNS...  Here are the city's: Memphis, Nashville, Birmingham, Atlanta, Macon, Columbia, GSP, Charlotte, and Raleigh/D
The first number will be the FORECASTED low /// and the 2nd  number will be the high.  ie  9/26    Forecasted low of 9  and a high of 26  smile.png

12Z Monday Model runs:
MEM: NAM: 9/26     GFS: 11/28     Para GFS: 11/30     EURO: 14/31
BNA:  NAM: 5/23     GFS:  7/26      Para GFS: 6/27      EURO:  6/29
BHM: NAM: 13/28   GFS:  13/33    Para GFS:  13/35    EURO:  19/34
ATL:  NAM: 15/28   GFS:  16/31    Para GFS:  14/34    EURO:  18/34
MCN: NAM: 21/31   GFS:  19/34    Para GFS:  20/34    EURO:  22/36
CAE:  NAM: 17/28   GFS:  18/29    Para GFS:  19/30    EURO:  21/32    
GSP: NAM:  13/26   GFS:  15/27    Para GFS:  15/30    EURO:  18/31
CLT: NAM:   13/24   GFS:  14/26    Para GFS:  14/31   EURO:  19/31
RDU: NAM:  13/23   GFS:  14/27    Para GFS:  14/27    EURO: 19/30      
My Forecast for KMCN *That I will use on TV* will be:  18/33 

 

 

00Z Tuesday Model runs:

MEM: NAM: 8/26     GFS: 11/28     Para GFS: 12/30     EURO: 12/31
BNA:  NAM: 4/22     GFS:  7/26      Para GFS: 6/28      EURO:  6/29
BHM: NAM: 12/28   GFS:  13/32    Para GFS:  13/35    EURO:  19/34
ATL:  NAM: 13/27   GFS:  16/31    Para GFS:  14/34    EURO:  18/34
MCN: NAM: 19/31   GFS:  19/34    Para GFS:  19/34    EURO:  21/36
CAE:  NAM: 17/28   GFS:  17/29    Para GFS:  18/30    EURO:  20/32        
GSP: NAM:  12/27   GFS:  15/27    Para GFS:  14/30    EURO:  17/31
CLT: NAM:   12/25   GFS:  14/26    Para GFS:  14/29   EURO:  18/31
RDU: NAM:  13/24   GFS:  14/27    Para GFS:  13/27    EURO: 19/30      
My Forecast for KMCN *That I will use on TV* will be:  18/33

 

12Z Tuesday Model runs:     NAM, GFS, and Para updated...Euro updated

MEM: NAM: 8/26     GFS: 11/28     Para GFS: 10/28     EURO: 15/31
BNA:  NAM: 3/21     GFS:  6/26      Para GFS:  5/28      EURO:  6/30
BHM: NAM: 12/28   GFS:  12/32    Para GFS:  12/3    EURO:  17/34
ATL:  NAM: 13/27   GFS:  15/31    Para GFS:  13/33    EURO:  17/32
MCN: NAM: 20/31   GFS:  19/34    Para GFS:  19/34    EURO:  21/35
CAE:  NAM: 16/28   GFS:  18/29    Para GFS:  19/30    EURO:  20/32        
GSP: NAM:  12/26   GFS:  15/28    Para GFS:  15/30    EURO:  17/31
CLT: NAM:   12/24   GFS:  14/27    Para GFS:  12/29   EURO:  17/30
RDU: NAM:  12/24   GFS:  14/27    Para GFS:  14/28    EURO: 19/29      

AVL:  NAM:  2/23     GFS:   6/28     Para GFS:   6/ 30    EURO:   5/30

TRI:   NAM:  4/22     GFS:   5/28     Para GFS:   6/28     EURO:   6/28

My Forecast for KMCN *That I will use on TV* will be:  16/33

 

 

00z Wednesday Model runs:     ALL have been updated

MEM: NAM: 7/25     GFS: 12/28     Para GFS: 11/29     EURO:    12/31
BNA:  NAM: 3/21     GFS:  7/27      Para GFS:  6/28      EURO:    6/29
BHM: NAM: 11/27   GFS:  14/32    Para GFS:  12/34    EURO:    18/34
ATL:  NAM: 13/28   GFS:  15/31    Para GFS:  14/34    EURO:     18/34
MCN: NAM: 20/32   GFS:  19/34    Para GFS:  20/35    EURO:    21/35
CAE:  NAM: 17/28   GFS:  18/29    Para GFS:  19/28    EURO:    20/32        
GSP: NAM:  12/26   GFS:  15/28    Para GFS:  15/31   EURO:    17/31
CLT: NAM:   12/25   GFS:  14/27    Para GFS:  14/30   EURO:    19/29
RDU: NAM:  12/23   GFS:  13/27    Para GFS:  13/27    EURO:   17/29      

AVL:  NAM:  3/23     GFS:   6/28     Para GFS:   6/ 30    EURO:     5/30

TRI:   NAM:  4/23     GFS:   6/29     Para GFS:   7/29     EURO:    7/29

My Forecast for KMCN *That I will use on TV* will be:  16/33

 

 

12z Wednesday Model runs:    All Updated except (NAM site I get raw # not updated)

MEM: NAM: 7/25     GFS: 12/28     Para GFS: 11/29     EURO:    14/30
BNA:  NAM: 3/21     GFS:  8/27      Para GFS:  6/28      EURO:    6/29
BHM: NAM: 11/27   GFS:  14/33    Para GFS:  12/34    EURO:    18/34
ATL:  NAM: 13/28   GFS:  15/31    Para GFS:  14/34    EURO:     18/33
MCN: NAM: 20/32   GFS:  19/33    Para GFS:  20/35    EURO:    21/35
CAE:  NAM: 17/28   GFS:  17/29    Para GFS:  19/31    EURO:    20/32        
GSP: NAM:  12/26   GFS:  15/28    Para GFS:  15/32   EURO:    17/31
CLT: NAM:   12/25   GFS:  14/27    Para GFS:  14/30   EURO:    198/30
RDU: NAM:  12/23   GFS:  14/27    Para GFS:  13/27    EURO:   18/29      

AVL:  NAM:  3/23     GFS:   6/28     Para GFS:   6/ 30    EURO:     6/30

TRI:   NAM:  4/23     GFS:   6/29     Para GFS:   6/30     EURO:    6/30

My Forecast for KMCN *That I will use on TV* will be:  17/34

 

 

00z Thursday Model runs:    LAST Model SET for this challenge All final numbers in.

MEM: NAM:   10/25     GFS: 12/28     Para GFS: 13/29     EURO:    10/28
BNA:  NAM:    5/22     GFS:  8/27      Para GFS:  7/28      EURO:    5/28
BHM: NAM:   12/28   GFS:  14/33    Para GFS:  13/35    EURO:    16/32
ATL:  NAM:   14/28   GFS:  15/32    Para GFS:  14/34    EURO:     15/32
MCN: NAM:   20/32   GFS:  19/33    Para GFS:  19/35    EURO:    21/34
CAE:  NAM:   17/28   GFS:  17/30    Para GFS:  19/31    EURO:    20/32        
GSP: NAM:    12/26   GFS:  15/29    Para GFS:  15/32   EURO:    15/30
CLT: NAM:    12/25   GFS:  14/27    Para GFS:  14/30   EURO:    15/28
RDU: NAM:    12/23   GFS:  13/27    Para GFS:  13/27    EURO:   17/27      

AVL:  NAM:    3/22     GFS:   6/28     Para GFS:   6/ 30    EURO:     4/29

TRI:   NAM:    5/24     GFS:   6/30     Para GFS:   6/30     EURO:    6/30

My Forecast for KMCN *That I will use on TV* will be:  17/34

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Chris,

 Great idea!

Thanks Larry, I figured that this would give us a good first look on how the PARA handles the arctic air, a true good wedge and all that good stuff.  Where has Lookout been lately?

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Careful, you may uncover a govt conspiracy with this kind of analytical thinking!

What are the vegas odds on the NAM being most accurate? Lol.

Some snowpack going down ahead of these temps so I think they all may verify a couple of degrees too warm.

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Thanks Larry, I figured that this would give us a good first look on how the PARA handles the arctic air, a true good wedge and all that good stuff.  Where has Lookout been lately?

 

He's only been popping in once in awhile for the last couple of years it seems.

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Hey everyone!  I wanted to try something out here. It should help us really learn more about the forecast models this season and how they will handle Arctic air and the cold.  We know the models have REALLY struggled at times for the Fall and Winter.  I have chosen 9 cities around us, plus MY forecast for Macon for THUR am (~12z) and Thur pm (~18z)  I know there could be a degree or 2 +or- because of the fact that the high will come closer to 20z or 21z depending on what time zone.  So just remember that ok?  I am doing the MON 12z RUNS.....TUE 00z RUNS.....TUE 12z RUNS....WED 00z RUNS..... WED 12z RUNS....THU 00z RUNS...  Here are the city's: Memphis, Nashville, Birmingham, Atlanta, Macon, Columbia, GSP, Charlotte, and Raleigh/D

The first number will be the FORECASTED low /// and the 2nd  number will be the high.  ie  9/26    Forecasted low of 9  and a high of 26  smile.png

12Z Monday Model runs:

MEM: NAM: 9/26     GFS: 11/28     Para GFS: 11/30     EURO: 14/31

BNA:  NAM: 5/23     GFS:  7/26      Para GFS: 6/27      EURO:  6/29

BHM: NAM: 13/28   GFS:  13/33    Para GFS:  13/35    EURO:  19/34

ATL:  NAM: 15/28   GFS:  16/31    Para GFS:  14/34    EURO:  18/34

MCN: NAM: 21/31   GFS:  19/34    Para GFS:  20/34    EURO:  22/36

CAE:  NAM: 17/28   GFS:  18/29    Para GFS:  19/30    EURO:  21/32    

GSP: NAM:  13/26   GFS:  15/27    Para GFS:  15/30    EURO:  18/31

CLT: NAM:   13/24   GFS:  14/26    Para GFS:  14/31   EURO:  19/31

RDU: NAM:  13/23   GFS:  14/27    Para GFS:  14/27    EURO: 19/30      

My Forecast for KMCN *That I will use on TV* will be:  18/33 

 

 

Thanks Chris!  It's safe to say our local mets here in CAE are using the Para GFS then.

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Perhaps I'm showing my ignorance, but what is making the Euro warmer across the board? Is it resolution, weaker high, something else, or all of the above?

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Perhaps I'm showing my ignorance, but what is making the Euro warmer across the board? Is it resolution, weaker high, something else, or all of the above?

I will let Larry handle that if he wants...but in short, it has a warm bias at 2m across the SE.

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From what I've seen in WxChallenge, NAM is pretty much useless most of times with horrible cold bias. Of course, even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. GFS also tends to have a slight cold bias as well and ECMWF is guilty of warm bias we're discussing about so I tends to forecast between GFS and ECMWF with help from HRRR/RAP and special USL model for WxChallenge purposes. Of course, we're doing this from 4 days away so it'll be interesting to see how bias work out from medium range.

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From what I've seen in WxChallenge, NAM is pretty much useless most of times with horrible cold bias. Of course, even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. GFS also tends to have a slight cold bias as well and ECMWF is guilty of warm bias we're discussing about so I tends to forecast between GFS and ECMWF with help from HRRR/RAP and special USL model for WxChallenge purposes. Of course, we're doing this from 4 days away so it'll be interesting to see how bias work out from medium range.

awesome..I can't wait to see what happens with this.

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Really good thread Chris. I'm very interested to see verification scores on this. 

I agree..I really think the models are going bust hardcore yalls way.

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I agree..I really think the models are going bust hardcore yalls way.

 

Between a 1060 High and this airmass + the resolution of the models, there's no way the models can see the cold 100%. I could see the 5 degree line reaching into CLT back to GSP Thursday morning with highs ~ 25.

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I used to keep up with this when I had a regular shift in Excel. It was quite useful to see the bias of the models and your own forecast. I'll definitely pick it back up when I get to my new gig and have a "normal" schedule again.

 

PS: Where are you getting the numbers for GFS Para & Euro...? I haven't been able to find GFS Para #s. Oh, and are these MOS numbers or raw numbers? Just curious...

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I used to keep up with this when I had a regular shift in Excel. It was quite useful to see the bias of the models and your own forecast. I'll definitely pick it back up when I get to my new gig and have a "normal" schedule again.

 

PS: Where are you getting the numbers for GFS Para & Euro...? I haven't been able to find GFS Para #s. Oh, and are these MOS numbers or raw numbers? Just curious...

I get them from the earl barker site for the GFS and the para off WB.  these are RAW numbers

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Can you add AVL for western North Carolina representation?  Thanks!

KTRI or KTYS for verification in east TN would be nice.  We have quite a few posters in that area.  If not, no big deal.  Will be interested to see what verification looks like.

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KTRI or KTYS for verification in east TN would be nice.  We have quite a few posters in that area.  If not, no big deal.  Will be interested to see what verification looks like.

Updated and added TRI

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Chris, is the forecast line you post underneath each set of model runs, your initial forecast from the beginning?  Or is it your updated forecast after each set of runs?  Because if the second option is correct, then you have yet to change your forecast through the last three cycles.  Just curious.

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Chris, is the forecast line you post underneath each set of model runs, your initial forecast from the beginning?  Or is it your updated forecast after each set of runs?  Because if the second option is correct, then you have yet to change your forecast through the last three cycles.  Just curious.

The forecast line is MY forecast that I have for MCN that I am going with on TV.  I made that yesterday, but I don't see anything to change my mind, so thats what I will keep today as well.  :)   *If there was a reason to change, that forecast (my) would ALSO change each run set, but I see no reason to update my thinking...hope that helps

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