Rising confidence in favorable period for snow Dec 15 - Jan 1

[NEG NAO]

What proof do you have of the NAO going negative -??? right now it is locked in positive and the PNA is locked in positive both until further notice. There is no clear indication exactly where the AO is going to end up this month

The MJO is traveling trough phase 6 and more then likely the next stop within the next week is phase 7 or the COD

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

It WILL go negative and when it does the pattern will lock in. Once we get those higher heights around N. CANADA and GREENLAND we will start seeing more favorable conditions for snow on the EC. You can see on the LR the higher heights around hudson bay getting nudged north little by little on the models.

Those positive anomolies helped get this storm on the EC this week and in a +NAO regime that is making a run at +2 SD and it being a slow mover as well despite the lack of -NAO. That +PNA has really done its dirty work at making sure we have not torched, when in a +NAO state we are suppose to. LR is showing this step down and this month NYC despite a less than ideal pattern should see a 3"+ event, anything bigger is a bonus ATM. LOTS of potential heading into the meats and potatoes of december, one of them will make a run at us on the EC.

[Guest Pamela]

From a historical standpoint it would be fairly important. Chris i believe also posted that list or maybe Uncle W that showed the correlation between little or no snow decembers and what that contributed to the final season tally of annual snowfall. The list really wasnt very promising at all, who knows maybe with a weak el nino it may be a mute point and we jackpot JFM, BUT i wouldnt want to enter january with 0.00" of snowfall in NYC.

 

I have to agree with you.  Quickly perusing the snow record out at Brookhaven Lab on L.I....there were very few winters with bad Decembers that ended up with good overall snow totals on the season.  Conversely, there were very few good Decembers snow wise that did not end up being good years overall for snow. See chart below:

 

http://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm

[REDMK6GLI]

EURO control really trying to hone in on something potentially sizable on the EC come December 19-20th time frame. its still 11 days away but the trough and ridging position displayed during that time frame shows the potential is there for something worth tracking for sure

[NEG NAO]

EURO control really trying to hone in on something potentially sizable on the EC come December 19-20th time frame. its still 11 days away but the trough and ridging position displayed during that time frame shows the potential is there for something worth tracking for sure

as of right now we will be tracking another liquid event - there is no   -NAO to keep any possible cold enough air that happens to be passing through to stick around -

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2014121012/ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_11.png

[PB GFI]

as of right now we will be tracking another liquid event - there is no -NAO to keep any possible cold enough air that happens to be passing through to stick around -

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2014121012/ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_11.png

Meh. Big differences betwen the GFS and the Euro.

The Euro sniffs the Highs slipping through the lakes so as it ejects a center up west of the apps it's ensembles then slide the surface low east and to our south.

True if we want a big storm we would love a NEG NAO but we could snow without one.

But I will agree it wouldn't b the best set up and certainly the coast could suffer. At 11 days out I'm inclined to think snow or rain. The type is irrelevant at this distance

But def worth a look when you get a Pos PNA you " could " time something out so I will not dismiss it.

When you break the southern jet through and cold highs keep slipping through the lakes there's always a chance you thread the needle.

[REDMK6GLI]

as of right now we will be tracking another liquid event - there is no   -NAO to keep any possible cold enough air that happens to be passing through to stick around -

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2014121012/ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_11.png

we will see, 11 days away and things can and will change from now till then. the Southern Stream is active so all we need is a decent marginal air mass and who knows maybe we could cash in on one of these storms.

 

-NAO isn't the savior all the time. the +PNA really helped get this storm this week. lots of loaded potential and we can cash in IF we can thread the needle and we have in craptastic pattern previously

[Doorman]

Ensemble Spot Check

Day 10  

Euro-    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2014121012/ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.png

American -  http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_f240_ussm.gif

Canadian  http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2014121012_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186.png   (temp trends only}

 

 

 

 

pretty good agreement -imho-

 

We will do a spot check again on Dec 20th,

and see how this guidance shakes out

 

dm

 

 

 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

as of right now we will be tracking another liquid event - there is no -NAO to keep any possible cold enough air that happens to be passing through to stick around -

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2014121012/ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_11.png

It can snow without that

[Doorman]

It can snow without that

Yes TB

but in what location....Canada??

 

[famartin]

Does it really matter? NYC and places around the coast average so little little in December to begin with. How will that small a deficit be tough to overcome if a good pattern sets up moving forward

Not so much a problem of deficit, just one of pattern.  Historically, if the pattern is bad in December, it never really rights itself later on.

[uncle W]

the models were showing a mild first ten days of December not to long ago...NYC is about a half a degree below average so far this month...I wouldn't worry to much what they say for ten days from now...

[Doorman]

No White Christmas for them?

then how about us?  

 

less than 50% chance of snow the next nine days

and not one single digit low on this forecast

 

http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/US/MN/International_Falls.html?MR=1

 

WHY?

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cpc/cpc_NAM_f192wbg.gif

 

 

Flat Five Pattern  

just sayin

 

[Brian5671]

Not so much a problem of deficit, just one of pattern.  Historically, if the pattern is bad in December, it never really rights itself later on.

BINGO!

[SnoSki14]

Not so much a problem of deficit, just one of pattern. Historically, if the pattern is bad in December, it never really rights itself later on.

A lot of busted forecasts if that ends up being the case. Nearly every Met said above average snow and below average temps.

Also kills the correlation established this October.

[Brian5671]

A lot of busted forecasts if that ends up being the case. Nearly every Met said above average snow and below average temps.

Getting a bit ahead of ourselves, but an example in 11-12-all the analogs lined up for an average to above average winter in the cold and snow dept and look what happened record warmth and  dry across the whole country.  Too early to pull the plug here, but there's definitely some warning signs that this may not work as hoped out or perhaps we get a 4-6 week siege that delivered the goods like 10-11 or 77-78.  I think the end to end winters like 76-77 and 95-96 are pretty much off the table.

[SnoSki14]

Well if anything based on those anomalies is that we remain on the neutral side compared to the Midwest, and we've had a few coastals already.

It's certainly possible we could thread the needle with at least one event this month. This coming week was expected to be our "torch" week so we'll see how that plays out. Post 12/20 is still looking a lot better to me than the coming week for sure.

[SnowGoose69]

DT just made a good post on the next few weeks, does mention the event near Christmas has potential to be a snow storm for the immediate coast.

[donsutherland1]

A lot of busted forecasts if that ends up being the case. Nearly every Met said above average snow and below average temps.

Also kills the correlation established this October.

IMO, it's far too soon to contemplate writing off the winter. This is not 2011 where a strongly positive AO was exerting itself by December and the stratosphere was anomalously cold strongly hinting at a very warm winter.

 

Although low snowfall Decembers are biased toward less snowfall, there are some cases where snowfall was very heavy afterward. A few cases:

 

1901-02: November: 0.1"; December: 1.5"; Seasonal total: 30.0"

1906-07: November: 1.0"; December: 0.3"; Seasonal total: 53.2"

1955-56: November: 1.0"; December: 3.3"; Seasonal total: 33.5"

1977-78: November: 0.2"; December: 0.4"; Seasonal total: 50.7"

 

2014-15: November: 0.2"; December: ?

[famartin]

A lot of busted forecasts if that ends up being the case. Nearly every Met said above average snow and below average temps.

Also kills the correlation established this October.

Still 21 days left.  A lot can change in 3 weeks.

 

That said, lets not pretend that there haven't been plenty of winters where hardly anyone had a clue what was going to happen, when you look back at their forecasts.  That's happened several times in the last few years, I think.

[uncle W]

it's only December 10th and we have two measurable snows so far...most of the storms have gone coastal...All we need is a little colder air mass and we are in business...

[SnowGoose69]

Still 21 days left.  A lot can change in 3 weeks.

 

That said, lets not pretend that there haven't been plenty of winters where hardly anyone had a clue what was going to happen, when you look back at their forecasts.  That's happened several times in the last few years, I think.

 

2001-02, 2010-11, 2011-12, 2006-07 were all very badly forecast winters...its still largely a crapshoot.

[alwaysready126]

2001-02, 2010-11, 2011-12, 2006-07 were all very badly forecast winters...its still largely a crapshoot.

Very little of the forecasts that are released have much to do, if at all, with SSW events.  Since SSW events are hardly predictable based on current knowledge (or lack thereof), long term winter forecasts will be all over the map.  The ones who get them right are actually just lucky.  SSW events and the effects of them are the single biggest driver, IMO.  Sure there are short term indicators but those indicators are the effect of unpredictable atmospheric temperature changes.

[PB GFI]

I am back after having dinner with the wife and was pleased to see DT s piece. At least someone sees it my way.

I can't believe on December 10 the calls of winter cxl are in the air. Insanity rules the blogs

Peak at the euro ensembles. Look at that Pos PNA and a southern branch cutting underneath. U should be intrigued.

That said. You don't need single digits or teens to snow. No one is looking for a blizzard . Not every event is a nesis event.

I hope some of you that were sure we were gona torch aren't too dissapointed. Just as u may be if your snowless Dec doesn't work out either.

[donsutherland1]

I am back after having dinner with the wife and was pleased to see DT s piece. At least someone sees it my way.

I can't believe on December 10 the calls of winter cxl are in the air. Insanity rules the blogs

Peak at the euro ensembles. Look at that Pos PNA and a southern branch cutting underneath. U should be intrigued.

That said. You don't need single digits or teens to snow. No one is looking for a blizzard . Not every event is a nesis event.

I hope some of you that were sure we were gona torch aren't too dissapointed. Just as u may be if your snowless Dec doesn't work out either.

I agree.

 

A few days ago, there were just a few hints of the looming pattern change. Now, the preponderance of long-range guidance (individual ensemble members forecasting the AO, GFS ensembles, extended range of the GFS, ECMWF ensembles, CFSv2, etc.) are all indicating a pattern change down the road. With a fairly active subtropical jet, there may be snowfall opportunities for perhaps the closing 7-10 days of the month. ENSO Region 3.4 has also cooled dramatically over the past two weeks, as well.

[SnoSki14]

it's only December 10th and we have two measurable snows so far...most of the storms have gone coastal...All we need is a little colder air mass and we are in business...

Agreed and I think if we fast forwarded this pattern a few weeks those air masses would've been just cold enough with less of an oceanic influence to thread the needle.

[REDMK6GLI]

Im going to try and be the voice of reason here. tonight driving home from my bowling league I witnessed my first measurable snowfall of the season in what was regarded as a crappy and stale air mass, from a coastal hugger and with a furnaced atlantic ocean. going forward into Christmas week and on it wont take much to get a predominant frozen event all the way to the coast. we have the +PNA, and NAO and EPO going to take a run to atleast neutral.

 

The higher heights around Hudson bay are getting pushed farther north as forecasted as the ECMWF, more aggressively through the Canadian. Canada will start to cool towards the end of the month.

 

These Winter Cancel calls that are coming from some and in particular one in here are grossly premature and unjust. I stated earlier we've had the stars align in a lot worse patterns than this, IT CAN HAPPEN AGAIN.

[Absolute Humidity]

IMO, it's far too soon to contemplate writing off the winter. This is not 2011 where a strongly positive AO was exerting itself by December and the stratosphere was anomalously cold strongly hinting at a very warm winter.

 

Although low snowfall Decembers are biased toward less snowfall, there are some cases where snowfall was very heavy afterward. A few cases:

 

1901-02: November: 0.1"; December: 1.5"; Seasonal total: 30.0"

1906-07: November: 1.0"; December: 0.3"; Seasonal total: 53.2"

1955-56: November: 1.0"; December: 3.3"; Seasonal total: 33.5"

1977-78: November: 0.2"; December: 0.4"; Seasonal total: 50.7"

 

2014-15: November: 0.2"; December: ?

I would add 2012-2013 to that list as well being that many in the NYC metro area received 30+" despite the parks offical 26.1" for that year. I believe most folks were less than 1" for Dec 2012. Regardless looks like NYC could have over 2" by daybreak for the month. Not a bad start thus far.

[SnoSki14]

I'm loving these coastal tracks even the gfs op LR continues to show a coastal tracks instead of big lake cutters even if they're mostly liquid.

We could do well as long as the PNA helps us. If the NAO turns negative then look out. I never expected this winter to be very cold and certainly nothing like last year but that's okay. Most on here just want it to be cold enough for snow and you don't need a crazy arctic airmass to achieve that.

[swamplover56]

I think with the activity that we have seen so far with the southern jet being so active that if we do flip to more favorable indices we will be fine even if it's delayed for another few weeks we have been in a active pattern since mid October do t think that ****s off injanuary

[REDMK6GLI]

I'm loving these coastal tracks even the gfs op LR continues to show a coastal tracks instead of big lake cutters even if they're mostly liquid.

We could do well as long as the PNA helps us. If the NAO turns negative then look out. I never expected this winter to be very cold and certainly nothing like last year but that's okay. Most on here just want it to be cold enough for snow and you don't need a crazy arctic airmass to achieve that.

This is one of your better post from you in the past couple weeks with your normal doom and gloom posts. We arent that far off from getting our first appreciable snowfall for NYC-east before december is over. Look what some of us saw today in a crap air mass and a coastal hugger to boot!