• Member Statistics

    15,570
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    diviningweather
    Newest Member
    diviningweather
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
powderfreak

NNE Winter Thread

Recommended Posts

I hadn't had a chance to pass along any images from up on the mountain in the snow on Saturday, so I've added a few below, and there are some more along with the snow/ski details in the full report.

 

08NOV14G.jpg

 

08NOV14E.jpg

 

08NOV14F.jpg

 

The next opportunities for snow still appear to be in the Thursday night/Friday and Sunday night/Monday timeframes.  They're both showing up in our point forecast, but the first one is expected to be pretty minimal with respect to precipitation, and we'll have to see where that second one actually ends up.  The most recent BTV NWS forecast discussion as of this morning only has a little to say about the potential Sunday night/Monday event:

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MAINLY A DRY AND COLDER THAN NORMAL FORECAST...NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. WRAP AROUND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It looks like the Euro has backed off to look more like the GFS now for Thu/Fri. Essentially there is nothing in range as of now that looks decent. It will be cold for snowmaking operations though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The euro turned warmer for monday...not sure how much frozen i'd be here, but it's still early.

57F

So stick a fork in the friday event and now possibly Monday too? Is the cold air coming going to be sustained or is this a 1 or 2 day cold snap, then back to this early Fall like weather we're having? Getting tired of the warmth. Bring on the cold.

 

Torched to 58F for the high.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Saw 63F here in Orwell. Beautiful day.

Anyone else notice that water levels in lakes and ponds have receded over the past 10 days? Usually, water levels star climbing after leaf drop and several soaking storms. But as has been the case throughout the summer, the big rain events have skirted the region. The USDA drought map shows short effects up into the eastern side of the Adirondacks, but the receding water levels and discussions with farmers about the shallow soil moisture depth makes me think the short term drought effects should be extended into the Champlain Valley.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's been drier than normal but I don't think it's anything excessive. The northeast as a whole has been quite dry the first 10 days of November:

And past 90 days are a little dry as a whole for the northeast, but again nothing excessive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wasn't suggesting anything excessive, but simply noting that it's dry, and that ponds and lakes are showing it at a time of the year when water levels generally climb quickly after the growing season comes to a close. The top map supports it, showing my neck of the woods in Addison County down over an inch of rain since the start of November.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's been drier than normal but I don't think it's anything excessive. The northeast as a whole has been quite dry the first 10 days of November:

image.jpg

And past 90 days are a little dry as a whole for the northeast, but again nothing excessive.

image.jpg

Maybe we should have DIT come up and perform a drought assessment.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe we should have DIT come up and perform a drought assessment.

good lord, no.  we don't allow hyperbole in Vermont, as it would disturb the cows.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In their forecast discussions yesterday morning, the BTV NWS didn't have much to say about these next couple of potential snow events in the Thursday night/Friday and Sunday night/Monday timeframes, but in the afternoon updates they started to touch on them.  Related excerpts from this morning's forecast discussion have been added below:

 

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 405 AM EST WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT AND COLDER AIR GRADUALLY MOVES IN AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY AND ONLY IN THE 30S ON FRIDAY. THE COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHWEST VERMONT AS THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE ANY OF THESE SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THREAT OF SHOWERS WEAKENS ON FRIDAY...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING AROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 405 AM EST WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL START OUT QUIET WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGH SLIDES EAST OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY ALLOWING NEXT WEATHER MAKER TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD AS FAR AS TIMING OF THE SYSTEM GOES. BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHING NORTH OF THE REGION DRAGS COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR CWA. VERY COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT AND TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. MOUNTAIN/LAKE SNOW BELTS WILL SET UP IN THE COLD AIR AND SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I guess 12Z Euro is warm but looking at the 18Z GFS Monday could be a nice little snowstorm for the mountains down to perhaps central sections.  Several inches of wet snow and then cold would set up some of the ski resorts for Thanksgiving skiing.  Plenty of non stop snowmaking coming up.

 

Finally little things to look at to make things interesting for us up here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I guess 12Z Euro is warm but looking at the 18Z GFS Monday could be a nice little snowstorm for the mountains down to perhaps central sections.  Several inches of wet snow and then cold would set up some of the ski resorts for Thanksgiving skiing.  Plenty of non stop snowmaking coming up.

 

Finally little things to look at to make things interesting for us up here.

I'll gladly sign for a quiet start in November with cold, in exchange for action in the heart of the season. Last season, we were sitting pretty around thanksgiving only to endure a brutal January. Don't want to see that again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'll gladly sign for a quiet start in November with cold, in exchange for action in the heart of the season. Last season, we were sitting pretty around thanksgiving only to endure a brutal January. Don't want to see that again.

I second that motion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'll gladly sign for a quiet start in November with cold, in exchange for action in the heart of the season. Last season, we were sitting pretty around thanksgiving only to endure a brutal January. Don't want to see that again.

Yeah it won't take much to have a better middle of the winter period than we did last year. The brutal end of December and January period was tough to swallow during 5-6 prime winter weeks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah it won't take much to have a better middle of the winter period than we did last year. The brutal end of December and January period was tough to swallow during 5-6 prime winter weeks.

Plenty of toaster baths during that period for sure ;). It was definitely more of a bookend winter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, as of yesterday evening's report, there's still snow at the Mt. Mansfield Stake, so it looks like the high elevation snowpack that started on the 7th may have persisted through the recent warm days.  It's 20 F up there right now, and the forecast doesn’t even have Mansfield going above freezing as far as the forecast period extends, which is the middle of next week.  We'll have to see how much snow is accrued during this next cold spell, and then it may be up to whether or not there's an anomalously warm period or a big, warm rainstorm in terms of whether or not this marks the start of the winter snowpack.  A week from now we're really getting into late November, at which point I'd expect the default temperatures to hold onto the snow.  That pack definitely has to be substantiated with an inch or two of liquid though before it will have the staying power to withstand a big thaw, so we'll just have to watch how the next few weeks play out.

 

Upcoming snow chances seem to be the same two that have been on the radar for a while, tonight/tomorrow and Sunday night/Monday, although the forecast discussion now mentions a third period of Saturday night into Sunday with the possibility of snow showers.

 

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 549 AM EST THURSDAY...WE SHOULD TREND FROM THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL INCREASE LIFT OVER THE AREA AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GREEN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD. COULD SEE A DUSTING TO AN INCH LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH THAT THE DURATION OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOUT THREE TO SIX HOURS. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AS OF 310 AM EST THURSDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION WILL GIVE US A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHERN ZONES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES VERY SLOWLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW FINALLY CROSS OUR CWA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICT A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH KEEPS HEAVIEST QPF CLOSER TO THE COAST.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On a day off today I checked out the migrating Snow Geese in Addison (outside of Vergennes) in the CPV. They are resting before moving on to the Mid-Atlantic. They originate in the Arctic regions of eastern Canada and Greenland:

 

10714106_10102238637728959_7372276838431

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NNE mountains should've liked that EURO run for Monday. It's a bit warm but almost SWFE style holds us below freezing until pretty much precip is moving out. Low redevelops east just in time to prevent us from torching.

GGEM was also a snowy solution.

I still would have no faith in this until like 24 hour lead time haha. Most systems we've had lately keep going through changes right up until go-time. No confidence in current model runs lately.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On a day off today I checked out the migrating Snow Geese in Addison (outside of Vergennes) in the CPV. They are resting before moving on to the Mid-Atlantic. They originate in the Arctic regions of eastern Canada and Greenland:

10714106_10102238637728959_7372276838431

Nice is that the bird sanctuary down there off RT 22a? I forget what it's called but I drive by that every time I go down south as I take the Crown Point Bridge in West Addison.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice is that the bird sanctuary down there off RT 22a? I forget what it's called but I drive by that every time I go down south as I take the Crown Point Bridge in West Addison.

That's the Dead Creek Wildlife refuge.  It must have some serious chow for snow geese, as I never see one elsewhere on the ground in the any of the fields from Benson on up to Addison.  Canadian geese will flow and feed just about anywhere else, but not these guys.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice is that the bird sanctuary down there off RT 22a? I forget what it's called but I drive by that every time I go down south as I take the Crown Point Bridge in West Addison.

Yes that was the one :) Dead Creek.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was just going to send in a comment on how the clouds were dropping on the mountains and it looked like snow was about to break out… but it's already started here in Burlington.  It's light in intensity of course, but the radar filled in fast:

 

13NOV14A.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.