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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2014-15 Discussion


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Tulsa update:

 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
956 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIP HAS FILLED IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN REPORTED MAINLY ALONG AN NORTH OF I-40
AT THIS TIME...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. OVERALL PRECIP TYPE
LAYOUT FOR THE FIRST PERIOD WILL REMAIN INTACT...HOWEVER HAVE
TWEAKED 00-06Z SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS...STILL EXPECTING A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET/SNOW IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...HOWEVER 00Z GUIDANCE FROM 06Z-12Z IS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A HIGHER QPF AXIS EXTENDING FROM NE
OK TO SW MO/NW AR. THEREFORE...HAVE UPPED SNOW AMOUNTS SOME ACROSS
FAR NE OK AND NW AR. WILL REFRESH THE WSW TO REFLECT THE HIGHER 12
HOUR AMOUNTS. TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK REASONABLE OVERNIGHT...AND NO
MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE REQUIRED FOR THOSE ELEMENTS AT THIS TIME.
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Springfield update:

 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
936 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2015

Moderate to heavy sleet continues across much of the area this
evening. However snow was starting to mix in across the northern
portions of the forecast as of the mid evening hours. The sleet will
continue to mix with and change over to all snow from north to
south this evening into the overnight hours. North of I-44 the change
over from sleet to snow is expected between 10 PM and midnight and
south of I-44 it is expected between midnight and 3 AM. Sleet
accumulations a tenth of an inch to one half inch will occur across
much of the area with pockets of locally heavier amounts
possible.The heaviest sleet amounts will generally be along
Highway 60 and south.

Widespread snow accumulations are still expected across the
entire area on top of the sleet that has and is falling this
evening. A band of heavier snow will still setup across portions
of southern Missouri overnight into Monday morning. The snow will
then taper off from west to east Monday afternoon.

Did not adjust snowfall amounts too much from going forecast,
where sleet occurs the longest snowfall amounts could be lower,
however, the heaviest snow is expected in these areas and may not
have much impact on final numbers. Still thinking widespread 4-8"
of snow with locally heavier amounts possible and the heaviest
bands generally along and south of I-44 with in the band. The
heaviest amounts will be with in the center of the bands and amounts
could still vary depending on the exact location of this axis.
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NWS Tulsa now has Bentonville with 6-10 inches tonight and 1-2 tomorrow morning. Wow! It better get wound up here quickly for that to happen.

Is the SW still back west? Looks like plenty of additional development west of OKC.

I was kinda wondering the same thing. This thing is supposed to start deepening and wrapping around at some point I thought.

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NWS Tulsa now has Bentonville with 6-10 inches tonight and 1-2 tomorrow morning. Wow! It better get wound up here quickly for that to happen.

Is the SW still back west? Looks like plenty of additional development west of OKC.

Yah I just saw that on our point-click forecast. Zone actually says up to 7" tonite. The latest HRRR did shift some heavier precip our way for the early morning hours so who knows. Hopefully will be all snow by then.
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Just had a rumble of thunder, mix of heavy freezing rain and sleet.

I am just down the road from you and I no longer feel so crazy thinking it looked like hail was mixing in with the sleet. Definitely some convection with this band.

Edit: heavy snow, sleet and, yes, hail at the moment on the north side of OKC. Everything, including streets, are rapidly getting covered!

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I am just down the road from you and I no longer feel so crazy thinking it looked like hail was mixing in with the sleet. Definitely some convection with this band.

 

Yeah there's been lightning in that band stretching from near Piedmont up to Stillwater and Glencoe. 

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I have not been on the roads but I can guarantee conditions are deteriorating rapidly around here. It is 28 F with heavy sleet. Until about 10 minutes ago, roads were just wet. Now they have a few tenths of an inch of sleet, which will allow snow... If we get any... to accumulate quickly on the roads if/when it starts. It could be an ugly night.

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JoMo, maybe you can get some snow out of that intense blob moving in from your immediate west.

 

It's sleet. Models underestimate the warm nose and I was worried this would happen.

 

Looks like the heavy band of snow, if it develops, later tonight, will probably be to the south of here.

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Several flashes of lightning in succession here! Moderate sleet and snow falling.

Edit: the thunder sounds awesome.... more like artillery in the distance rather than than the crack and rumble of summer thunder.

Edit 2: there seems to be more snow than sleet at the moment. I can still hear the pinging but visibilities are way down.... Probably to under 1/2 mile.

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The springfield radar shows snow overhead and wunderground is showing snow icon for current conditions for Dora, but it is still sleeting with occasional snow flakes . So , if there is snowflakes in the sleet does it count as all snow :whistle:

I call it sneet. Haha.

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