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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2014-15 Discussion


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FIRST OFFICIAL FREEZE WATCH!

FXUS64 KTSA 292020 AFDTSA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 320 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014 .DISCUSSION... AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS HAS PROVIDED THE REGION WITH A NEAR PERFECT AUTUMN DAY. SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RULE TODAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DRY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS COLD FRONT WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL SEASON SO FAR. BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY PREVAILS. A HARD FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS SOME DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE BECOMES INCORPORATED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END ON WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA PUTTING AND END TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

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Monster Aleutian storm along with Typhoon Nuri are responsible for that big Central U.S. trough in the long range Euro.  Looks like an active upcoming pattern.

 

Day 8 upper air analogs...a couple of these dates were big producers across the Southern Plains. 

 

500hgt_comp_12gfs610.gif

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Hey all. Good to be back! Hit 21º Saturday morning on my weather station. Looks like an interesting November. Look forward to following it along with each of you.

Welcome back.

If I didn't know any better I would still say that the euro has snow potential for 12z Nov 12th. It looks like a classic Eastern Oklahoma/Northwest Arkansas snow maker in my opinion. Not saying it will happen but I think it bears watching. Thanks for the tropical tidbits links JoMo.

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Hey Wx 24/7.

I can't believe we have stuff to track already here in November. Anyone checked the 00z GFS? There's a couple of possible wintry systems to watch.

I can't find a fully loaded 00z gfs yet but I was seeing some hints that we could have some fun between the 18z gfs and using the free euro stuff I found. I think it's going to be a fun month. Pretty chilly and wintry after the 12th or so. Where can I get the 00z already loaded?

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I can't find a fully loaded 00z gfs yet but I was seeing some hints that we could have some fun between the 18z gfs and using the free euro stuff I found. I think it's going to be a fun month. Pretty chilly and wintry after the 12th or so. Where can I get the 00z already loaded?

 

MAG site always updates pretty fast.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/

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Thanks for another good link. I like the looks of that pattern. Looks like your area could get a measurable snow out of this pattern. May be a little hard to come by down this way. The 12th/13th has my interest. I'd like to see a little more moisture on the cold side of it but I'll take any measurable snow in November. :-)

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Hi, everybody! Good to be officially back for the winter (although I've been snooping around for weeks).

 

Thanks to those of you who contribute model data, etc. You're the bee's knees.

 

I'm a weenie for anamolous cold, so I'm stoked to see just how cold it'll be next week. A little snow would be awesome, but not getting too excited just yet.

 

Anyway, here's to a long, snowy winter.

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