OHweather Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 With a 43/34/5/0 verification, I move up into the 500's but stay a couple points worse than consensus. Better end to the week than start, but still not a good week overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I actually find next week pretty interesting. There is tight clustering between places...my friend down at University of Alabama is about 50 places ahead of me and there's only 0.6 error points separating us. Everyone is doing relatively awful so even the top 100 people don't have great scores. It will just take a day or two with significant precipitation to shake things up. That looks like it's still on the table for the end of the week. They will also have snowcover at the beginning of the week to throw another little curveball into all this..should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 It'll be interesting to see some these forecasts for the low tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 36/18/11/0.01" really hoping they decouple fast tonight and skies clear after 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 35/23/11/0 Seriously considered going 17 on the low. Very very unsure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 35/23/11/0 Seriously considered going 17 on the low. Very very unsure. I was thinking about going to 20 for the low, but the hi-res models at the low levels made me hesitate. This city has had the propensity to hold on to the low cloud deck longer than usual, so I kept it up to 24. If they decouple and clear around 6z like AppsRunner mentioned, they will be around guidance. if not, they will keep the temperature up around mid 20's. That snow cover is also tricky. Hoping it doesn't tank so I can maintain my trophy hunt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 35/17/10/0 Took a chance with the low but feel good about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 33/14/11/0 I was thinking 17-18 but I threw in an extra few degrees for fun since this city is already a total loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 35/25/12/0 Because I made the rookie mistake about DST. Also because they aren't going to decouple and the nw wind will keep them warm like it did last week.........yeah talking out my behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 35/22/13/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 37/22/13/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Certainly quite a spread here... At least IR satellite looks decent for clearing soon. Most stations west of KCAR are already clear which makes me feel a little better. Euro dropped temps to 17F with clearing around 3-6z so I'm confident we'll be 20 or below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Certainly quite a spread here... At least IR satellite looks decent for clearing soon. Most stations west of KCAR are already clear which makes me feel a little better. Euro dropped temps to 17F with clearing around 3-6z so I'm confident we'll be 20 or below Not with 8 knots of wind consistently overnight. Euro has been too cold all week long with the lows here with either bad cloud cover predictions or bad wind predictions of them decoupling which they haven't yet so far so I'm skeptical of the Euro's low until it actually gets one night right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Not with 8 knots of wind consistently overnight. Euro has been too cold all week long with the lows here with either bad cloud cover predictions or bad wind predictions of them decoupling which they haven't yet so far so I'm skeptical of the Euro's low until it actually gets one night right. The operational models (SREFs, Euro, Hi-Res NAM) concerned me and are what made me think 17F was reasonable. I even noticed that the Euro's clouds were pretty good and that we'd probably clear out after 03z, and was concerned that the Euro STILL got them cold. But then I looked for previous nights that were similar. Though I didn't find any perfect analogs (in my quick search), one thing seemed obvious. Even with clear, calm conditions with snowcover, they don't seem to plummet like one might expect. They're no mountain-west 10F in 1-2 hour drop type city. That's why I ended up going with my 23F. I do think the winds will die off in the last three hours or so before the sun comes up, and they could accelerate their cooling at that point. But still probably no better than 2F per hour at that point. That all being said, I am by no means confident, and 17F STILL wouldn't surprise me tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 The operational models (SREFs, Euro, Hi-Res NAM) concerned me and are what made me think 17F was reasonable. I even noticed that the Euro's clouds were pretty good and that we'd probably clear out after 03z, and was concerned that the Euro STILL got them cold. But then I looked for previous nights that were similar. Though I didn't find any perfect analogs (in my quick search), one thing seemed obvious. Even with clear, calm conditions with snowcover, they don't seem to plummet like one might expect. They're no mountain-west 10F in 1-2 hour drop type city. That's why I ended up going with my 23F. I do think the winds will die off in the last three hours or so before the sun comes up, and they could accelerate their cooling at that point. But still probably no better than 2F per hour at that point. That all being said, I am by no means confident, and 17F STILL wouldn't surprise me tomorrow morning. Yeah I thought about going 21-22F especially with how CAR never likes to plummet down. Winds will slowly dying all night and I'm hoping by 6-7z its less than 5kts. Either way CAR finally lost the OVC and is finally SCT at 1z. I'll hope for the best as tomorrow will be a day I cam make a lot of ground up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 35/20/14/0.06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Went 37/18/12/0.01 They should be mainly clear the rest of the night...the big question will be the winds. They'll probably stay up around 10 knots through 5-6z, although after that point BL average winds quickly fall below 15 knots which could be enough for a decouple. I'd think snow pack would be conducive for a faster decouple, so we'll see. They may not decouple until right before sunrise which obviously would keep lows warmer than what I have, but if they do manage to go calm/almost calm by 8-9z I think I may be ok. Took a shot on the warm high with mostly sunny skies and light winds during the day...the precip may hold off until just after 6z but NAM forecast soundings look moist enough for rain to make it to the ground during the evening so put in 0.01. At this point I either take risks or don't finish above consensus, so I don't mind going with the cold low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 They just went back to mostly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 not an easy forecast tomorrow (and made all that more difficult by SLS talks going right up to 0z) 35/19/11/0.04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Clear now, although the winds will prevent a fast drop for another few hours at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Maybe I wasn't talking out of my rear end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 I suck haha. I'm surprised they didn't get calmer, I know they kept a good breeze right off the deck most of the night but figured with a weak pressure gradient and snow pack they'd eventually decouple. Whoops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Looks like the winds held up overnight into the morning. Now they go calm for the 8am metar. This city is something else. I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 That's the last time I go cold on a low for this city... Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Already 34 at 9am. If I'm lucky I'll stay above consensus for the city after today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 36 F as of the 10 am obs..........oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Well, 37+ looks like a lock, and I'm sure the winds hit 12 knots somewhere, so I'll pretty much tread water today. ILM and BTM were much more fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Thanks goodness I went high on winds to reduce the damage for whiffing the low Last three days should be fun trying to get above consensus, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 what an absolute disaster of a city this has been for me .. next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Well, 37+ looks like a lock, and I'm sure the winds hit 12 knots somewhere, so I'll pretty much tread water today. ILM and BTM were much more fun Reminds me of Grand Forks. The models underdoing mixing heights and overdoing inversions. I considered going 39F here by mixing them to 925 mb but I figured the snowcover wold do its dirty work. Should've known better seeing as they got to 35F yesterday with no sun. The wind already hit 12 kts on the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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