MillvilleWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 61495452. My forecast holds all these numbers tomorrow. Guess what is what lol. 56/45/16/.29 ? haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I'm 56/42/15/0.27, not confident in any of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 56/45/16/.29 ? haha You can only use each number once except the 1 is used twice whoops lol. 16 is correct though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 53/42/15/.18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 53/42/12/0.30 Really banking on cloud cover to kept the temps down, despite WAA. Thought about going 41, but I don't think it'll be that low at either 6z, but 42 is possible. Rain? Slightly higher than NWS/USL, even though radar doesn't look impressive. Wind? I didn't want to get caught low like today so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 53/43/12/.39 Low confidence for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 54/43/15/0.26" Was hoping for a bit more spread but oh well, this is Maine and not Montana I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 You can only use each number once whoops lol. 16 is correct though. 54/42/16/.59 This is a tough one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 55/42/17/.33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 54/43/15/0.26" Was hoping for a bit more spread but oh well, this is Maine and not Montana I guess. You want spread, I'll give you spread. 59/41/16/0.45 My Reasoning: High 59 - I did HYSPLIT for multiple time frames tomorrow at 150, 300, and 400m agl and I was getting consistent low 60s at the locations it went back to. And I saw no wedging of cold air tomorrow as well as the warm front getting through Caribou so I felt the chances were greater than 50%. Low 41 - Just went around overall guidance as it wasn't going to vary that much between 40 and 43 tonight or tomorrow night before 6z, but I did see potential for lower as skies clear possibly for a few hours before 6z tomorrow night. Wind 16 - Felt like around 6z the LLJ will get going enough to see stronger winds than today, however we don't know how strong those southerlies will be tonight as they have yet to start ramping up. So a good possibility of being on the high side. Precip .45" - I like being in the left exit region of a jet streak. Good WAA, tight baroclinic zone relatively to the area in Maine, possible vortmax with some decent PVA and more importantly the possibility of the precip training over the area for a good 6 hours during the day before PWATs start to drop below 1" after 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 53/39/15/.33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 You want spread, I'll give you spread. 59/41/16/0.45 My Reasoning: High 59 - I did HYSPLIT for multiple time frames tomorrow at 150, 300, and 400m agl and I was getting consistent low 60s at the locations it went back to. And I saw no wedging of cold air tomorrow as well as the warm front getting through Caribou so I felt the chances were greater than 50%. Low 41 - Just went around overall guidance as it wasn't going to vary that much between 40 and 43 tonight or tomorrow night before 6z, but I did see potential for lower as skies clear possibly for a few hours before 6z tomorrow night. Wind 16 - Felt like around 6z the LLJ will get going enough to see stronger winds than today, however we don't know how strong those southerlies will be tonight as they have yet to start ramping up. So a good possibility of being on the high side. Precip .45" - I like being in the left exit region of a jet streak. Good WAA, tight baroclinic zone relatively to the area in Maine, possible vortmax with some decent PVA and more importantly the possibility of the precip training over the area for a good 6 hours during the day before PWATs start to drop below 1" after 21z. The high is interesting. I did a 2m HYSPLIT for 20z and it gave me a parcel that was just off the extreme southeastern coast of Maine at 20z today where it stayed in the low 50's today. I also did 150m and 250m and got parcels from a similar area, but I didn't mix them down because I don't they'll mix much at all tomorrow. Perhaps I erred there but we'll see. I can't disagree with your reasoning for the low (we're only 2 apart). I debated whether to go cooler or not due to the potential to clear tomorrow evening, but it looked like a short window just before 6z for clearing and the winds might not be calm by that point, so I decided not to. But it could go either way. Obviously I agree on your wind thoughts, I'm only 1 low than you. I debated going higher on precip for the reasons you mentioned, but was a little apprehensive due to the hi-res models trying to show the best band of precip staying just south of CAR. So, there are some interesting things that can happen tomorrow...mainly with the low and rain IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 wind tn is interesting for sure .. NAM has consistently had 35 knts + at 925 around 6z. obv the inversion will have a say, but wind does ramp up quickly just above the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWOhioWX Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 55/41/14/0.31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 We're definitely going to be getting measurable precip here tonight. Day 1 is an utter disaster for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 We're definitely going to be getting measurable precip here tonight. Day 1 is an utter disaster for me... I don't think that is a safe bet just yet. Radar looking less impressive again and 3z metar says zero so there is still hope yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I don't think that is a safe bet just yet. Radar looking less impressive again and 3z metar says zero so there is still hope yet. I thought for sure some of those showers were going to give them a couple hundredths. Some decent reflectivities, even if the showers were small.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 We're definitely going to be getting measurable precip here tonight. Day 1 is an utter disaster for me... As a person with 4.24 to start of the city, I understand your pain. However, I'm also 1.2 error points behind consensus and I'm sure your error points behind consensus isn't too bad either. Maybe no trophy for us from this city right off from start, but we got plenty of time to make up for Day 1 and get back into this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 It was another <10 minute forecast for me, which means a blend of guidance and hunches. 53/41/14/0.13" The precip I thought was gutsy, but neither the NMM or ARW were developing much, both less than 0.25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 As a person with 4.24 to start of the city, I understand your pain. However, I'm also 1.2 error points behind consensus and I'm sure your error points behind consensus isn't too bad either. Maybe no trophy for us from this city right off from start, but we got plenty of time to make up for Day 1 and get back into this Yeah, I'm looking at the scores instead of the error points... I need to take a step back, like you suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 As long as the next ob comes in zero, you will be safe from precip the rest of the night before 6z Mallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 As long as the next ob comes in zero, you will be safe from precip the rest of the night before 6z Mallow. Agreed. Not confident it WILL be zero/T for the 12AM obs, but I definitely was happy to see the T at 11PM. EDIT: Got lucky with that precip, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Hopefully CAR squeeked out a 15 knot sustained in that last hour. Would only take 4mph more than what the ob said at 5z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Just by eye-balling radar, it appears most of heavy precip will miss KCAR and HRRR supports this with KCAR just north of 0.1 inch line. Not good for my 0.30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Hoping this fog will keep temps down this afternoon. I was 53/42/13/0.21" and I feel pretty good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Looking like I trusted in warm air advection too much again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Looks like Caribou might nickel and dime there way to 0.1-0.2, but the main extent does look to stay just off to their south. If that stays the course, the people who went on the low precip camp will benefit a lot. Still would like the temperature to bump a few degrees, but that fog in the area is going to be a thorn in a lot of forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Looks like I am going to be ok with my forecasted high, btut completely screwed up the low and precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Adjusting to 15 kt (from the climo report) puts me at 8th in the nation, yet still only 2nd at Valpo. Another hundredth would change that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 If nothing changes from now I'll be T37th so far. Could be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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