CoastalWx Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 May 22-June 7. Maybe can blame recency bias for shifting a week later compared to past two years. May sting a bit lol. We've done well in that period before, tho off the top of my head I want to say the first week of June hasn't been a big performer of late. But the Panhandle is returning to service so fingers crossed. As long as we have troughing near CA you certainly have a shot. Weeklies look like they want to continue that, although the signal weakens week4..but looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 As long as we have troughing near CA you certainly have a shot. Weeklies look like they want to continue that, although the signal weakens week4..but looks pretty good.Yeah saw them. Similar pattern. Imagine it will more or less continue until choked by ridging. Usually say something doesn't last more than 2 or 3 weeks but we have liked locked in patterns in recent years. Going late'ish you know you're at higher odds of missing the biggest day but there should in theory be less downtime. We'll see.. Know a lot of folks with shiftability are putting gears in motion. Can't say I blame them. Tough being a non Plains chaser hah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Yeah saw them. Similar pattern. Imagine it will more or less continue until choked by ridging. Usually say something doesn't last more than 2 or 3 weeks but we have liked locked in patterns in recent years. Going late'ish you know you're at higher odds of missing the biggest day but there should in theory be less downtime. We'll see.. Know a lot of folks with shiftability are putting gears in motion. Can't say I blame them. Tough being a non Plains chaser hah. I'll be out again when you guys are out now as I'm also assisting Walker Ashley on CoD's trip 3 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 I'll be out again when you guys are out now as I'm also assisting Walker Ashley on CoD's trip 3 as well. I feel better already. Record stretch of wedges ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 5, 2015 Author Share Posted May 5, 2015 Hmm, 00z GFS not lending too much confidence in Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Hmm, 00z GFS not lending too much confidence in Saturday. Like many of the days this week, we may not have a really clear idea on the potential until the near-term, given so many things that could throw a wrench in it. Although the potential is there and with a fairly high ceiling, if things can line up. 00z GFS-based analogs showing a strong signal. Some of the matches were some pretty big days, like 5/23/08 and 4/14/12. Taken with a grain of salt: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 If you take the H5 evolution from the 00z GFS literally, there's no way that doesn't get the job done kicking out over mid-upper 60s dews in mid-May, no matter the timing or prior convective evolution. "Bad" timing could hurt chaseability and/or prevent it from being an outbreak, but there'd still be at least a few tubes in the area centered on SW KS, methinks. At this point, the only thing that would make me think Saturday won't be noteworthy is a wholesale change in the trough evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Got a lot of kid activities Wednesday night in OKC/edmond. What's the potential here? Naders or good ole spring storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Got a lot of kid activities Wednesday night in OKC/edmond. What's the potential here? Naders or good ole spring storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Current period (4-6th) isn't too interesting, and I suspect the 7-10th will prove to be the same. Saturday obviously has the highest potential of any day between now and Sunday, but I'm leaning heavily towards it being underwhelming due to early/morning initiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 6, 2015 Author Share Posted May 6, 2015 Current period (4-6th) isn't too interesting, and I suspect the 7-10th will prove to be the same. Saturday obviously has the highest potential of any day between now and Sunday, but I'm leaning heavily towards it being underwhelming due to early/morning initiation. This has been growing less prominent on the GFS runs today. The Euro might not be bad either in central Texas and the Red River Valley as the convection fires early further west and moves into the destabilizing warm sector and a strengthening low level jet with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Definitely not a slam dunk but if anything prob usually best to lean slower on the trough push than shown at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Really impressive op GFS run tonight in la la land FWIW from about 5/17-5/21 and would continue after that. Finally a run which has been hinted at from ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 I'm still worried because I always do and I wish we were there now.. but.. the signs seem good to keep on rolling I think. I wonder if this will end up a hyperactive period overall. We're due? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2015 Author Share Posted May 7, 2015 Long range 12z GFS and now the latest CFS chiclet SCP chart are going bonkers in the latter half of May. 12z Euro also looked to be setting something up in the late goings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 This period showed itself fairly well from range. I actually expected a high risk day about when we'll get one looking at the progression. If nothing else it seems we should want to keep a tendency for EC ridging which goes a long way. Add in nino and the rest.. Even some hints the NE pac ridge dies off and allows some pure northern stream stuff in. I dunno how long it will last or how persistent but I'm bullish on the time ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 10, 2015 Author Share Posted May 10, 2015 Allow me to describe the 00z GFS mid/long range with the appropriate emoticons: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Allow me to describe the 00z GFS mid/long range with the appropriate emoticons: Thundersnow12 and I hit the road with COD next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 10, 2015 Author Share Posted May 10, 2015 Thundersnow12 and I hit the road with COD next Friday. Optimism should be had (and is, based on his and Victor G's material over the last week or so). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Yeah it really does look great beginning around 5/16 or a day after. The agreement continues to improve too. Loop the 0z GFS ensemble spaghetti plots on our CoD site. Good agreement right through day 9. The best thing is you get a good EML going during that period and the GOM just floods open as you keep reloading the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 This might be Bastardis 45 days of mayhem. Delayed but not denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 This might be Bastardis 45 days of mayhem. Delayed but not denied. I was thinking of saying this but afraid I'd get slammed. Better you than me. Good luck to all chasers out there in that time period! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 10, 2015 Author Share Posted May 10, 2015 12z Euro agrees with the GFS in general, i.e. things are probably going to get very interesting towards the end of next week and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 the GEM is a lot different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 the GEM is a lot different. well, most of the mid/long-range models (GFS/EURO/UKMET/CFS) forecasts point to quite an active upcoming period in about 7-9 days... So really would disregard the GEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 11, 2015 Author Share Posted May 11, 2015 Pretty major league setup on the 00z GFS for next Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Pretty major league setup on the 00z GFS for next Saturday. It might well come to nothing if we don't have a good EML. The trend toward a neutral/negative tilt with a "pinched" trough (i.e., one farther south with time) is not encouraging, as that would discourage a good EML from emanating over the warm sector. Anyway, we don't need more HP cells causing havoc for both communities and chasers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 11, 2015 Author Share Posted May 11, 2015 It might well come to nothing if we don't have a good EML. The trend toward a neutral/negative tilt with a "pinched" trough (i.e., one farther south with time) is not encouraging, as that would discourage a good EML from emanating over the warm sector. Anyway, we don't need more HP cells causing havoc for both communities and chasers. So we're already going to start with this? Fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 And Nino comes to the rescue! Southern Cali should not be as bad as predicted. http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/anomimage.pl?wrc30dPdep.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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