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Central/Western Medium-Long Range Discussion


andyhb
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May 22-June 7. Maybe can blame recency bias for shifting a week later compared to past two years. May sting a bit lol. We've done well in that period before, tho off the top of my head I want to say the first week of June hasn't been a big performer of late. But the Panhandle is returning to service so fingers crossed.

 

As long as we have troughing near CA you certainly have a shot. Weeklies look like they want to continue that, although the signal weakens week4..but looks pretty good. 

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As long as we have troughing near CA you certainly have a shot. Weeklies look like they want to continue that, although the signal weakens week4..but looks pretty good.

Yeah saw them. Similar pattern. Imagine it will more or less continue until choked by ridging. Usually say something doesn't last more than 2 or 3 weeks but we have liked locked in patterns in recent years. Going late'ish you know you're at higher odds of missing the biggest day but there should in theory be less downtime. We'll see.. Know a lot of folks with shiftability are putting gears in motion. Can't say I blame them. Tough being a non Plains chaser hah.
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Yeah saw them. Similar pattern. Imagine it will more or less continue until choked by ridging. Usually say something doesn't last more than 2 or 3 weeks but we have liked locked in patterns in recent years. Going late'ish you know you're at higher odds of missing the biggest day but there should in theory be less downtime. We'll see.. Know a lot of folks with shiftability are putting gears in motion. Can't say I blame them. Tough being a non Plains chaser hah.

 

I'll be out again when you guys are out now as I'm also assisting Walker Ashley on CoD's trip 3 as well.  

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I'll be out again when you guys are out now as I'm also assisting Walker Ashley on CoD's trip 3 as well.  

I feel better already. Record stretch of wedges ahead. :P

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Hmm, 00z GFS not lending too much confidence in Saturday.

Like many of the days this week, we may not have a really clear idea on the potential until the near-term, given so many things that could throw a wrench in it. Although the potential is there and with a fairly high ceiling, if things can line up. 

 

00z GFS-based analogs showing a strong signal. Some of the matches were some pretty big days, like 5/23/08 and 4/14/12. Taken with a grain of salt:

post-533-0-55007700-1430838277_thumb.png

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If you take the H5 evolution from the 00z GFS literally, there's no way that doesn't get the job done kicking out over mid-upper 60s dews in mid-May, no matter the timing or prior convective evolution. "Bad" timing could hurt chaseability and/or prevent it from being an outbreak, but there'd still be at least a few tubes in the area centered on SW KS, methinks. At this point, the only thing that would make me think Saturday won't be noteworthy is a wholesale change in the trough evolution.

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Current period (4-6th) isn't too interesting, and I suspect the 7-10th will prove to be the same.

 

Saturday obviously has the highest potential of any day between now and Sunday, but I'm leaning heavily towards it being underwhelming due to early/morning initiation.

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Current period (4-6th) isn't too interesting, and I suspect the 7-10th will prove to be the same.

 

Saturday obviously has the highest potential of any day between now and Sunday, but I'm leaning heavily towards it being underwhelming due to early/morning initiation.

 

This has been growing less prominent on the GFS runs today. The Euro might not be bad either in central Texas and the Red River Valley as the convection fires early further west and moves into the destabilizing warm sector and a strengthening low level jet with time.

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I'm still worried because I always do and I wish we were there now.. but.. the signs seem good to keep on rolling I think. I wonder if this will end up a hyperactive period overall. We're due? ;)

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This period showed itself fairly well from range. I actually expected a high risk day about when we'll get one looking at the progression. If nothing else it seems we should want to keep a tendency for EC ridging which goes a long way. Add in nino and the rest.. Even some hints the NE pac ridge dies off and allows some pure northern stream stuff in. I dunno how long it will last or how persistent but I'm bullish on the time ahead.

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Yeah it really does look great beginning around 5/16 or a day after.

The agreement continues to improve too. Loop the 0z GFS ensemble spaghetti plots on our CoD site. Good agreement right through day 9.

The best thing is you get a good EML going during that period and the GOM just floods open as you keep reloading the west.

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the GEM is a lot different.

well, most of the mid/long-range models (GFS/EURO/UKMET/CFS) forecasts point to quite an active upcoming period in about 7-9 days... So really would disregard the GEM...
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Pretty major league setup on the 00z GFS for next Saturday.

It might well come to nothing if we don't have a good EML. The trend toward a neutral/negative tilt with a "pinched" trough (i.e., one farther south with time) is not encouraging, as that would discourage a good EML from emanating over the warm sector. Anyway, we don't need more HP cells causing havoc for both communities and chasers.

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It might well come to nothing if we don't have a good EML. The trend toward a neutral/negative tilt with a "pinched" trough (i.e., one farther south with time) is not encouraging, as that would discourage a good EML from emanating over the warm sector. Anyway, we don't need more HP cells causing havoc for both communities and chasers.

 

So we're already going to start with this? Fantastic.

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