packbacker Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 GaWx...is this the highest it's been this year, I can't remember how high it got in the spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 If I were a forecaster, I wouldn't even want to hazard a guess for large areas of the Southeast, where a depressing winter of only 50% normal snowfall vs the exuberance of a 150% winter, equates to a total of 6 hours of moderately heavy snow. I agree that SE seasonal winter snow (even moreso down here in GA) is extremely unpredictable and will typically vary a lot in relation to climo averages over relatively short distances. Also, there are obviously often issues with type of wintry precip. that makes it more complicated to predict seasonal snow/IP/ZR. That being said, I don't see any harm in looking at analogs/historical stats to at least get some idea of how likely SN/IP/ZR will be above, near, or below means/medians since there are some overall tendencies that can be identified via analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 GaWx...is this the highest it's been this year, I can't remember how high it got in the spring? No, Levi's 3.4 got to just over +1.0 back in June following a very strong spike. It subsequently dropped almost as sharply. The +0.619 is, however, the highest in over 3 months and I think since that June spike. It looks like to me that a base near +0.5 is probably finally forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 I just looked at the Eurosip. I like it. I just go over the 500mb pattern since I don't like getting cute with srfc temps. You can infer probably just with the 500 look alone. It has DJF with ridging in AK and NW Canada. A small lower height anomaly well south of the Aleutians.It does have higher heights just off the EC with above normal precip hugging the East Coast from FL to Nova Scotia with highest precip anomalies just off New England. By JFM the pattern becomes more enhanced. The Eurosip is depicting stronger ridging into NW Canada and now moved east a bit to NW Hudson Bay. A strong lower height anomaly south of the Aleutians. Also lower height anomalies over the deep south as well. A wetter look near and off the East Coast but also now extending back along the gulf coast to the SW US. Signs of storm track perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Dang, with all of this negativity, and having Accuwx clearly against a Piedmont winter, I have no choice but to go all in and buy a generator and a cord of wood. I'm fully expecting end of the world kind of cold. Polar Vortex TIMES 2, not part II. You guys take the under, I'll take the over. No way I am bailing on winter in mid october! Cmon man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Dang, with all of this negativity, and having Accuwx clearly against a Piedmont winter, I have no choice but to go all in and buy a generator and a cord of wood. I'm fully expecting end of the world kind of cold. Polar Vortex TIMES 2, not part II. You guys take the under, I'll take the over. No way I am bailing on winter in mid october! Cmon man! kvegas, Do you honestly think that a clearcut winter forecast for the SE US for either wintry precip. or temperatures can even be deduced from that Accuwx map? I say it absolutely does not. All I can get out of it is that it is sort of forecasting above normal overall liquid equivalent precip. I wasn't sure whether you were just being silly and making fun of the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 kvegas, Do you honestly think that a clearcut winter forecast for the SE US for either wintry precip. or temperatures can even be deduced from that Accuwx map? I say it absolutely does not. All I can get out of it is that it is sort of forecasting above normal overall liquid equivalent precip. I wasn't sure whether you were just being silly and making fun of the map. MAJOR sarcasm intended. Dont we do this every year with our friends in PA? I see the analogs, I read the unbelievably excellent comments here on this board, and understand why many may deduce 10/15/14 winter cancel. But I do think its a bit early to read our chances for a polar vortex in october. Dont think anyone saw last years event 3 months in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Grit, thanks for posting that. I hear the JMA blew chunks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Let's start stressing Jan 15th, folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Grit, thanks for posting that. I hear the JMA blew chunks. It did. ENSO looks pretty good right now. We have some surface warming going on, but also, the warm anomalies at depth continue to build in the pipeline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 More on the Eurosip...'us' in the wording below is for southern New England Yeah the JFM H5 composite on the Euro SIPS is a vintage -AO El Nino pattern on 'roids. That's like Jan/Feb 2003. People shouldn't take that the wrong way though...we'll almost certainly have a STJ weaker than that year, so don't use it as a snow analog. But it would def be a snowy look for us...as we are not so dependent on the STJ anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 More on the Eurosip...'us' in the wording below is for southern New England So we have the Eurosips, which is some type of ensemble product, iirc, the -AO October (which is likely), the above normal SCE, the SAI (although both of those need the month to complete--and I haven't heard much about either the last couple of days), building ENSO, and presumably a -OPI all on our side right now. The CFS, the JMA, the Brazilian, and what else against us. These need to start turning around soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 So we have the Eurosips, which is some type of ensemble product, iirc, the -AO October (which is likely), the above normal SCE, the SAI (although both of those need the month to complete--and I haven't heard much about either the last couple of days), building ENSO, and presumably a -OPI all on our side right now. The CFS, the JMA, the Brazilian, and what else against us. These need to start turning around soon. The JMA has been cold east for several months for DJF (If I remember correctly)? until this latest run. Hopefully it's a hiccup run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 The JMA has been cold east for several months for DJF (If I remember correctly)? until this latest run. Hopefully it's a hiccup run! I'm guessing it'll flip again next month. How have you been, Big Frosty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Daily OPI at -2.86...AO still looks to get near -3 before rising again through the end of the month. Should finish the month with a solid -ve average there. Larry does the math on it, but yesterday, it was looking to finish the month around -1. Anybody have an update on the snow cover in Siberia/Eurasia? Haven't seen anything posted in a few days. Hopefully, things are still looking good. What's the best link to use for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 So we have the Eurosips, which is some type of ensemble product, iirc, the -AO October (which is likely), the above normal SCE, the SAI (although both of those need the month to complete--and I haven't heard much about either the last couple of days), building ENSO, and presumably a -OPI all on our side right now. Don't forget the record snow coverage for North America for the month of September. And the talk about having a warm October could equal a big winter. The pendulum has to swing back the other way eventually. I think we have a lot more positive signs now than negative signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Anybody have an update on the snow cover in Siberia/Eurasia? Haven't seen anything posted in a few days. Hopefully, things are still looking good. What's the best link to use for that? Red circle is my best guess on where we are right now for snow advance south of 60N in Eurasia (graph is from cfbaggett on the main board thread - I added the red circle). Snow data links: http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/ http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2014&ui_day=288&ui_set=2 Pattern going forward to me looks around average for snow growth in Eurasia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Thanks Grit. It was killing it there for a little while. Also just read Millwx's post in the main forum. Pretty encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Thanks Grit. It was killing it there for a little while. Also just read Millwx's post in the main forum. Pretty encouraging. If the GFS 8-Day snowfall forecast is correct (I'd link it here, but if you're not subscribed to the model suite you won't see it), the Eurasian snow cover for Week 42 will be epic. Based on current coverage, plus the GFS forecast (excluding snow under only a few centimeters as I think that's meaningless and won't get into the "official" snow cover amount), the Week 42 Eurasian snow cover would be almost identical to 1978 (the second highest on record). Of course, a major caveat in that... that's based on the GFS. The Euro isn't TOO dissimilar, but it definitely has somewhat less snowfall over the next week. (FYI, I point this out now because Week 42 Eurasian snow cover has the highest correlation to U.S. winter temperatures; Week 41 and 43 are close behind - in that order - but Week 42 is the one with the best signal.) At this point, I'm going to be a little skeptical, since that's such extreme coverage, and it depends on the GFS being right (yikes!); but it's certainly going to be interesting week for tracking the snow extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Accuweather releases their 2014-2015 Winter Outlook. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-2014-2015-winter-forecast/35422753 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Accuweather releases their 2014-2015 Winter Outlook. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-2014-2015-winter-forecast/35422753 Cold to our north, ice to our west, snow to our north, storms to our south. Yep, this is gonna be a fun winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Accuweather releases their 2014-2015 Winter Outlook. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-2014-2015-winter-forecast/35422753 Cold to our north, ice to our west, snow to our north, storms to our south. Yep, this is gonna be a fun winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RONALD B Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 http://t.co/1HCB1SoMYO NOAA puts out the winter chances typical really ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Ronnie B! Can't see that link for some reason, but based on what Metallica said, sounds like the typical NOAA/Weather Channel/AccuWx (post JB) hot garbage. Wonder if they'll ever go cold/snowy east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 http://t.co/1HCB1SoMYO NOAA puts out the winter chances typical really ! At least this is more telling than Accuwx's nebulous map and it makes sense from a Nino perspective with better than 1/3 chances for below normal temp.'s in much of the SE (I know NC is technically left out) and the same for above normal precip. near the Gulf coast and the Atlantic coast. I'd certainly take colder than normal and near normal precip. as per what is shown for ATL as opposed to dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Not sure if this was posted already, but NOAA released their official winter outlook. Very Nino-ish looking, but they mention this... Repeat of last year’s extremely cold, snowy winter east of Rockies unlikely http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20141016_winteroutlook.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Looking at KATL, it is pretty rare to get a wet and solidly cold winter combo. If they get cold and near normal, I'd take that any day. Besides, from a wintry precip. perspective, having colder and wetter than normal (though helpful ala 1935-6 & 1884-5) isn't crucial due to the few events they get even in a "snowy" winter. With a weak Nino, +PDO, & -NAO/-AO, I'd take near normal precip. in a heartbeat (wetter to the S & E typically) along with the typical strong cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 I like those NOAA maps a lot, Kory. Thanks for posting them. Good thing you did, too. I was this close to canceling my classes for the next few days, so I could recover from my deep sense of foreboding about the lack of snowfall this winter. I was beginning to look for a dark room to shelter in until I could bear to face the world again. Seriously, I don't know how some of you other posters (not you, Kory) make it through the day-to-day issues of life, if you swing so wildly on the emotional pendulum over somebody's long-range winter forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDa-wx Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 People...we live in the south. We will NEVER have a winter forecast that says it will be cold and snowy all winter long. But please continue to cancel winter every time a seasonal forecast doesn't say we'll have 4' of snow and temps in the 20's from December through February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 NOAA maps look good, from there maps I guess you could infer that there is a fairly good chance of ridging out west, with active STJ...what's not to like. FYI...JB updated his winter forecast, supposedly going to post in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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