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Hurricane/Tropical Season 2014


NEG NAO

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If TD#2 had better conditions to work with it would have been on a great track to affect the United States, assuming that it was able to skate by the larger islands.

 

02L_tracks_latest.png

This why development closer to the U.S. Coast is favored this year - Conditions not favorable at all further out in the Atlantic - but we will probably see something form out there during the peak of the season in September that makes it across.....

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  • 2 weeks later...

unfavorable pattern right now for any storm that does develop to survive once it hits all the shear

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif

If it can skate by far enough to the north of the islands it should escape the shredder that is the Caribbean.

 

Wind_Shear-640x360.jpg

 

The biggest problem today remains the dry air to the north.The center appears to be just north of the deepest convection. If it can somehow manage to wrap some moisture to the north and establish decent outflow we could see things pick up rather quickly. All of the 06z tropical guidance brings it up to at least tropical storm status within 48 hours.

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post-3401-0-63928700-1406832390_thumb.jp

 

A far offshore hurricane would have made beach days a bit more interesting the next couple weeks, but alas 93L will not be it. Seems to me that the first several waves of any season tend to look good coming off Africa but slowly lose momentum. I consider it no great surprise that a Cape Verde system in the last week of July has failed to materialize... good calls by the NHC to delay initiation when the disturbance looked so pretty on Tuesday morning.

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Bertha is here.

the pattern we are in here with troughs and cold fronts exiting off the east coast every few days will prevent Bertha from coming up the east coast as it ends up doing the classic curve out to sea in response to this........

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  • 3 weeks later...

The tropics are about to come alive again

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Been watching possible evoulution on GFS for 2 days of a system that is just about ready to get started.    It has moved hundreds of miles to the east at our latitude in those 2 days ( from GL east to over us near end of month.)   Interesting LDW coming up if this is at least a TD at our latitude.

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