MJO812 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 If TD#2 had better conditions to work with it would have been on a great track to affect the United States, assuming that it was able to skate by the larger islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 22, 2014 Author Share Posted July 22, 2014 If TD#2 had better conditions to work with it would have been on a great track to affect the United States, assuming that it was able to skate by the larger islands. This why development closer to the U.S. Coast is favored this year - Conditions not favorable at all further out in the Atlantic - but we will probably see something form out there during the peak of the season in September that makes it across..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 70 percent chance of formation http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 31, 2014 Author Share Posted July 31, 2014 70 percent chance of formation http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 unfavorable pattern right now for any storm that does develop to survive once it hits all the shear http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 unfavorable pattern right now for any storm that does develop to survive once it hits all the shear http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif If it can skate by far enough to the north of the islands it should escape the shredder that is the Caribbean. The biggest problem today remains the dry air to the north.The center appears to be just north of the deepest convection. If it can somehow manage to wrap some moisture to the north and establish decent outflow we could see things pick up rather quickly. All of the 06z tropical guidance brings it up to at least tropical storm status within 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 A far offshore hurricane would have made beach days a bit more interesting the next couple weeks, but alas 93L will not be it. Seems to me that the first several waves of any season tend to look good coming off Africa but slowly lose momentum. I consider it no great surprise that a Cape Verde system in the last week of July has failed to materialize... good calls by the NHC to delay initiation when the disturbance looked so pretty on Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Bertha is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 1, 2014 Author Share Posted August 1, 2014 Bertha is here. the pattern we are in here with troughs and cold fronts exiting off the east coast every few days will prevent Bertha from coming up the east coast as it ends up doing the classic curve out to sea in response to this........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Yeah the pattern right now sucks if your looking for a tropical cyclone to come up the east coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 3, 2014 Share Posted August 3, 2014 While still a longshot, some of the models are bringing TS Bertha close enough to the coast (Especially further south of here) to raise a few eyebrows. The 15z SREF members have a few interesting solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Hurricane Bertha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 4, 2014 Author Share Posted August 4, 2014 Hurricane Bertha you forgot the details http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/041438.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 It looks like an open wave again on IR loop, getting sheared to pieces as we speak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Satellite can be deceiving. Last recon fix about 45m mins reported an 22 mile-wide eye.. A dropsonde about about hour ago reported 81kt surface wind in the NE Quad. Another one before that was 83kts at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 It looks like an open wave again on IR loop, getting sheared to pieces as we speak That's a hideous look on the satellite. It looks like the low level center is almost exposed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Looks like we briefly had an eye on visible loop which is now gone. I'm hard pressed to remember an instance where a system was upgraded to Hurricane status looking worse than Bertha currently does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Some frontal disturbance attempts to become tropical in the day-6 range on the Euro and is fairly close to the coast. It has appeared occasionally on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Some frontal disturbance attempts to become tropical in the day-6 range on the Euro and is fairly close to the coast. It has appeared occasionally on the GFS. That would be the convective blob that is currently over Florida. Honestly, it looks better then Bertha right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Any chance that the trough captures Bertha? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Any chance that the trough captures Bertha? The synoptic setup may of allowed a East Coast rider. Bertha would need to be this far north yesterday in order to time it correctly with the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Any chance that the trough captures Bertha? Actually......yes. If the system gets absorbed by the FL disturbance. That's however very unlikely to happen at this point. Once the system gets north of OBX it will be picked up by the strong westerly flow and swiftly kicked OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 20, 2014 Author Share Posted August 20, 2014 The tropics are about to come alive again http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 The tropics are about to come alive again http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Been watching possible evoulution on GFS for 2 days of a system that is just about ready to get started. It has moved hundreds of miles to the east at our latitude in those 2 days ( from GL east to over us near end of month.) Interesting LDW coming up if this is at least a TD at our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 21, 2014 Author Share Posted August 21, 2014 96L starting to get a low level circulation http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/96L/flash-vis-short.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 96L starting to get a low level circulation http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/96L/flash-vis-short.html now a 60% chance of formation. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 96L starting to get a low level circulation http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/96L/flash-vis-short.html Still looks like an open wave at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 A few hurricane models have this hitting up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 The NEUS and New England can't turn their backs on this one as there could be a surprise in store if this gets blocked from turning towards the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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