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Summer time and the livin's easy


SACRUS

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Quick summer cast for 2014.  Do we go 5 in a row?  After 2010 (record hot Jun - Aug), 2011 (scorching July), 2012 (hot), 2013 (scorcher July) how does  2013 look to shape up?  Overall we should ride the plus side of avg and on the above avg side of precip.  Main analogs used were  1982, 1986, 2002, 2009 all with a weak nino forming as the main consideration.  Like with any forecast we may get an idea of which type of pattern will lock for a while and it wouldn't shock me if it went a bit warmer than forecast.  While we wont likely be as hot as 2002 it will likely not be as cool as 2009 as those two years rode the extreme of the spectrum.  I believe we are similar to last year as a whole with a better spread between heat and any cool downs Jun - Aug, rather than any one month skewing the averages either way ala 2011, 2013 (July).  Potential 5 in a row for 100 heat but lower confidence in that.

 

As in past 4 years the core of the heat or the hottest period  against the mean will focus in July but I also suspect we may see an August surge this year.  As with most developing nino summers, we should ride the plus side of avg with precip/rainfall and any tropical influences will further enhance that.

 

90 Degree Days predictions

 

EWR: 23

NYC: 17

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7ENPQzlUpY

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EWR: 14

NYC :12

LGA : 13

JFK :  11

 

here in the northern mid atlantic - IMO we will be well north of the heat ridge which will only poke into our area for brief periods from early June through late August - we will also have the "ring of fire" visit us form time to time being north of the high pressure ridge with some decent storms followed by cooler air and then in mid August the tropics start to get active with above normal precip here August through September.

 

 

 

EWR: 10

NYC : 8

LGA : 8

JFK :  7

 

Based on the latest JMA, it is showing below average temperature departures for 60% of the Eastern US for JJA. El Ninos produce wetter conditions (ie September 1982) for a large chuck of the US. Mainly at Southern California through Texas and into the Southeast. At times, there are troughs that swing through the NE and we get strong LPs producing wetter conditions for the Northeast and Northern Mid Atlantic. So those of you on this topic, beware because if you are planning to go to the beach it won't be good. This Summer could challenge 2009 in terms of temperatures, but the rainfall won't be overbearing like 2009. A weaker Nino this time around will have lesser effects, so a summer like 2009 will be close, but there may be a few more 90s This Summer Vs. 2009. The central theme for this summer is Cool and Dry/Wet and Hot/Dry with Afternoon Thunderstorms (Possibly Severe). 

 

 

 

Becoming more and more likely that we will not see our first 90 degree day in the metro until after Memorial Day which is the 26th this year.

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

 

 

90 degree days by the month at KNYC...LGA annual totals also...

Season.....Apr...May...June.July.Aug...Sept....total...LGA's totals...

1944..........0.......1.......5....17....11......3.........37.......................

1950..........0.......0.......4......2.....0.......0..........6..........8

1951..........0.......1.......0......5.....1.......0..........7.........11

1952..........0.......0.......6....14.....1.......3.........24........24

1953..........0.......1.......8....11.....8.......4.........32........30

1954..........0.......0.......3....12.....2.......0.........17........15

1955..........0.......1.......0....14....10......0.........25........29

1956..........0.......0.......5......2.....4.......0.........11........13

1957..........0.......0.......6....10.....3.......2.........21........19

1958..........0.......0.......0......4.....2.......0..........6.........10

1959..........0.......3.......5......3....13......3.........27........27

1960..........0.......0.......0......1.....3.......1..........5..........7

1961..........0.......0.......3....12.....6.......8.........29........14

1962..........1.......3.......5......7.....2.......0.........18.........9

1963..........0.......0.......5....11.....0.......0.........16........12

1964..........0.......2.......7......7.....4.......3.........23........16

1965..........0.......4.......5......4.....1.......1.........15........16

1966..........0.......0.....10....16.....8.......1.........35........25

1967..........0.......0.......5......3.....1.......0..........9..........6

1968..........0.......0.......3......6.....8.......0.........17........15

1969..........0.......2.......3......5.....5.......1.........16.........9

1970..........0.......2.......1......4.....8.......7.........22........22

1971..........0.......0.......5......6.....5.......2.........18..........9

1972..........0.......0.......0....11.....3.......1.........15..........4

1973..........0.......0.......4......4.....6.......4.........18........17

1974..........0.......1.......1....10.....5.......0.........17........13

1975..........0.......1.......1......2.....4.......0..........8..........7

1976..........3.......0.......6......2.....4.......0.........15........10

1977..........1.......2.......0....11.....7.......2.........23........14

1978..........0.......1.......2......3.....5.......0.........11..........4

1979..........0.......2.......0......7.....8.......1.........18........16

1980..........0.......2.......1....11....15......3.........32........22

1981..........0.......0.......2....10......4......0.........16........15

1982..........0.......0.......0....11......0......0.........11..........6

1983..........0.......0.......6....14......9......7.........36........31

1984..........0.......0.......6......1......3......0.........10..........9

1985..........0.......0.......0......4......2......3..........9..........8

1986..........0.......3.......2......6......0......0.........11.........9

1987..........0.......4.......5......9......4......0.........22........19

1988..........0.......1.......8....13....10......0.........32.........26

1989..........0.......0.......3......7......4......2.........16........17

1990..........2.......0.......0......6......4......0.........12........10

1991..........1.......5.......9....12....10......2.........39........34

1992..........0.......2.......0......4......3......0..........9..........9

1993..........0.......1.......5....20....10......3.........39........26

1994..........0.......1.......7......9......2......0.........19........22

1995..........0.......0.......3....11....13......2.........29........23

1996..........0.......2.......0......0......1......0..........3..........6

1997..........0.......0.......5......5......2......0.........12........17

1998..........0.......0.......2......3......2......1..........8........11

1999..........0.......0.......6....18......3......0.........27........26

2000..........0.......3.......3......0......1......0..........7........12

2001..........0.......3.......2......2......8......0.........15........17

2002..........3.......0.......1....12....14......2.........32........33

2003..........0.......0.......4......2......2......0..........8........17

2004..........0.......0.......1......0......1......0..........2..........7

2005..........0.......0.......4......8......9......2.........23........30

2006..........0.......0.......1......4......3......0..........8........22

2007..........0.......2.......2......2......4......0.........10........23

2008..........0.......0.......4......6......1......1.........12........19

2009..........2.......0.......0......0......5......0...........7.........8

2010..........1.......1.......4....16....12......3.........37........48

2011..........0.......0.......3....14......3......0.........20........19

2012..........0.......0.......5....10......3......1.........19........28

2013..........0.......2.......3....10......1......1.........17........21

2014..........0...............................................................................

four years had 90's in October...1927, 1938, 1939 and 1941...

 

 

I posted this in the other thread:

 

 

90 degree days 1984-2013

 

Year..EWR....NYC....LGA.....JFK

 

84...22...10...9...13

85...11....9....8....5

86...22...11...9...8

87...37...22...19..11

88...43...32...26...14

89...27...16...17...9

90...26...12...10...6

91...41...39...26...13

92...22.....9...9......6

93...49...39...26...13

94...39...19...22...7

95...33...29...23...15

96....8.....3.....6....4

97...20...12...17...10

98...21.....8....11....5

99...33...27...26....14

00...16....7.....12.....6

01...22...15...17.....8

02...41...32....35...21

03...20....8...17.....12

04...13...2.....7.......1

05...37...23...30.....17

06...26...8....22......12

07...21..10...23.......7

08...22...12...19......9

09...14....7.....8.......6

10...54....37...48.....32

11...31...20...19.....13

12...33...19....28....16

13...25....17....21....9

 

8 out of the last 9 summers have had above normal temperatures at LGA.

 

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attachicon.gifB.png

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Summer months average temp and precipitation at KNYC...June/July/Aug...
Three month period from 6/1 - 8/31
decade...ave temp/precip...90+days100+
1870's.....73.2.....13.75".....101.....0.....
1880's.....72.4.....11.88".......81.....1.....
1890's.....73.3.....11.18".....138.....1.....
1900's.....73.3.....12.87".....101.....2.....
1910's.....72.7.....11.58".....115.....3.....
1920's.....72.6.....12.98".....128.....2.....
1930's.....74.6.....12.40".....189.....8.....
1940's.....74.2.....11.86".....202.....8.....
1950's.....74.4.......9.86".....175...12.....
1960's.....74.2.....10.54".....181.....4.....
1970's.....74.6.....12.61".....183.....3.....
1980's.....75.0.....13.03".....195.....2.....
1990's.....75.0.....11.90".....197.....8.....
2000's.....74.3.....15.66".....123.....1.....
2010's.....76.2.....15.01".......93.....5.....

1870-
2009 ave 73.8.....12.29".....149.....4.....
1980-
2009 ave 74.8.....13.53".....172.....4.....

June......Ave temp...max...min...ave max/min...
1870's.....70.4.......na.....na.....na.....na
1880's.....70.5.......96.....48.....91.0.....51.5
1890's.....70.9.......97.....48.....93.6.....53.4
1900's.....70.0.......95.....48.....91.1.....52.7
1910's.....69.0.......95.....47.....90.9.....51.1
1920's.....70.1.......99.....45.....92.7.....51.0
1930's.....71.6.....101.....47.....93.7.....52.4
1940's.....71.5.......99.....44.....93.9.....51.1
1950's.....71.2.....100.....48.....94.2.....51.9
1960's.....72.0.....101.....48.....95.5.....52.7
1970's.....71.0.......95.....46.....91.1.....52.0
1980's.....71.7.......98.....47.....92.7.....52.6
1990's.....72.2.......98.....49.....92.8.....52.6
2000's.....71.3.......96.....49.....91.4.....52.5
2010's.....72.7.......95.....51.....93.5.....54.3
1870/1880-
2009 ave 70.9.....101.....44.....92.7.....52.1
1980-
2009 ave 71.7.......98.....47.....92.3.....52.6

July........................................................
1870's.....75.7.......na.....na.....na.....na
1880's.....74.6.......99.....54.....92.6.....59.2
1890's.....74.7.....100.....55.....95.1.....58.1
1900's.....76.1.....100.....56.....94.4.....60.0
1910's.....75.4.....100.....56.....96.1.....59.2
1920's.....74.7.....100.....54.....94.7.....57.5
1930's.....76.7.....106.....54.....97.9.....59.2
1940's.....76.7.....102.....52.....96.0.....58.6
1950's.....77.1.....101.....57.....96.3.....60.5
1960's.....76.0.....103.....54.....96.1.....59.3
1970's.....76.8.....104.....53.....95.0.....58.7
1980's.....77.4.....102.....53.....96.5.....59.2
1990's.....77.5.....102.....57.....97.1.....61.1
2000's.....75.6.......97.....56.....92.6.....60.5
2010's.....80.0.....104.....61...101.3.....62.3

1870/1880-
2009 ave 76.1.....106.....52.....95.4.....59.3
1980-
2009 ave 76.8.....102.....53.....95.4.....60.3

August..........................................................
1870's.....73.7.......na.....na.....na.....na
1880's.....72.0.......96.....50.....90.6.....54.2
1890's.....74.2.......98.....52.....92.8.....56.9
1900's.....73.8.......96.....54.....91.8.....58.1
1910's.....73.5.....104.....51.....93.8.....56.8
1920's.....73.0.......99.....51.....92.8.....55.3
1930's.....75.5.....100.....52.....94.9.....58.5
1940's.....74.5.....103.....52.....95.6.....55.4
1950's.....75.0.....100.....54.....93.4.....57.9
1960's.....74.6.......94.....50.....91.8.....56.2
1970's.....76.0.......98.....50.....94.2.....57.1
1980's.....75.9.......99.....50.....93.7.....57.2
1990's.....75.5.......98.....57.....93.3.....59.4
2000's.....75.9.....103.....56.....94.2.....60.0
2010's.....76.0.......96.....59.....92.8.....60.0

1870/1880-
2009 ave 74.5.....104.....50.....93.3.....57.2
1980-
2009 ave 75.8.....103.....50.....93.7.....58.9

Hottest................Coolest...........Wettest.............Driest
77.8 in 2010.....69.3 in 1903.....25.23" in 2011.....4.31" in 1966
77.3 in 1966.....69.9 in 1927.....22.75" in 1975.....4.36" in 1894
77.1 in 2005.....70.5 in 1902.....22.36" in 1989.....4.58" in 1929
76.9 in 1993.....70.9 in 1881.....21.39" in 2009.....4.97" in 1999
76.9 in 1983.....71.0 in 1886.....20.79" in 2006.....5.33" in 1965
76.9 in 1949.....71.2 in 1915.....20.64" in 2007.....6.19" in 1957
76.7 in 1999.....71.3 in 1869.....20.50" in 1928.....6.87" in 1882
76.6 in 1988.....71.4 in 1889.....20.43" in 1903.....6.88" in 1912
76.6 in 1980.....71.4 in 1888.....20.01" in 1927.....6.93" in 1970
76.5 in 1955.....71.4 in 1874.....19.88" in 2003.....7.01" in 1923
76.5 in 1944

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Guest Pamela

Though 2010, 2011, 2012, & 2013 were all above average for the mean temp at KNYC for the three month period June, July, & August...that mean has declined just a bit every year after the exceptional heat of Summer 2010.

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Though 2010, 2011, 2012, & 2013 were all above average for the mean temp at KNYC for the three month period June, July, & August...that mean has declined just a bit every year after the exceptional heat of Summer 2010.

 

 

Yeah there was a major contrast last year from July to August. I will say this though, last July was hotter than 2012 - June about the same.  This year I think is more normal but a prolonged period of above normal for 2 weeks wouldn't surprise me.   One thing is almost certain, it will more than likely be above normal precip.

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Guest Pamela

Yeah there was a major contrast last year from July to August. I will say this though, last July was hotter than 2012 - June about the same.  This year I think is more normal but a prolonged period of above normal for 2 weeks wouldn't surprise me.   One thing is almost certain, it will more than likely be above normal precip.

 

I'm not much of a long range forecaster...I leave that to people who know what they're doing...lot of hot summers the last 30 years...so just by playing the odds you would probably have to go above normal again...but you never know.

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last year had a 30 day period that averaged 81.7 at KNYC from 6/24 to 7/23...one of the warmest on record...2000 tied the alltime record with 1888 for the lowest warmest 30 day period on record...

Hottest 30 day periods...
82.5 in 1980
81.9 in 1876
81.9 in 1999
81.8 in 2005
81.8 in 2010
81.7 in 2013
81.6 in 1955
81.2 in 1993
81.1 in 1995
81.1 in 1988
81.0 in 1966
81.0 in 2011
80.9 in 1983
Coolest...
72.7 in 2000
74.4 in 1992
74.8 in 2004
74.9 in 1996
75.0 in 1960
75.0 in 1950
75.1 in 1956
75.5 in 1945
75.6 in 1962
75.7 in 1965
decade average since 1930...
1930's 78.3
1940's 77.7
1950's 78.0
1960's 77.0
1970's 77.8
1980's 78.7
1990's 78.6
2000's 77.4
2010's 81.0
1930-

2000.. 77.9

 

2012...79.5

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Well, we're coming off the back of 4 below-average months, and the immediate forecast shows us being stuck in the 60s for most of next week. After tomorrow, we might be in a below average pattern for the rest of the month. We might not hit 80 again until June. And if this pattern remains intact for 3 weeks, we could very easily finish below average for the 5th month in a row.

 

That may be a sign of what's to come over the summer.

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Hottest weeks and hot periods...
high..low mean max ..dates
98.0 76.9 87.4 102 7/07-7/13 1993
98.4 76.3 87.4 104 7/15-7/21 1977
98.3 76.0 87.1 102 8/29-9/04 1953
95.1 78.9 87.0 .98. 8/05-8/11 1896
95.7 77.9 86.8 104 7/18-7/24 2011
95.3 78.0 86.7 .99. 8/09-8/15 1988
96.6 75.1 85.9 102 8/11-8/17 1944
96.1 75.2 85.7 100 8/01-8/07 1955
95.3 75.9 85.6 103 8/04-8/10 2001
94.9 76.1 85.5 102 7/16-7/22 1980
97.3 73.6 85.4 102 7/17-7/23 1991
95.7 75.1 85.4 .98. 8/28-9/03 1973
94.1 76.7 85.4 .96. 7/12-7/18 1981
94.3 76.4 85.4 103 7/04-7/10 2010
95.4 75.1 85.3 100 7/17-7/23 1955
Hot periods...
6/21-7/14 1966...19 of 24 days 90 or higher...
7/04-7/20 1993...14 of 17 days 90 or higher...
7/29-8/19 2002...17 of 22 days 90 or higher...
7/23-8/17 1944...19 of 26 days 90 or higher...
7/12-7/23 1952...11 of 12 days 90 or higher...
9/23-9/04 1953...12 of 12 days 90 or higher...
7/27-8/13 1896...14 of 18 days 90 or higher...

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Quick summer cast for 2014.  Do we go 5 in a row?  ***** Potential 5 in a row for 100 heat but lower confidence in that.

Only one problem; we didn't top 100 last summer and in 2012 we only touched it, not topped it.

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If KNYC has a cool bias due to growth then KLGA, KEWR and KJFK all have warm biases due to being located in concrete jungles. The KEWR sensor is literally right between a runway and the NJ Turnpike.

 

The concrete jungle is more representative of the temperatures most people experience in the NY-NJ Metro 

rather than under heavy vegetation in a park. 

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The concrete jungle is more representative of the temperatures most people experience in the NY-NJ Metro 

rather than under the shade in a park. 

I don't agree with that at all. Outside of Manhattan and Brooklyn plenty of vegetation exists.

 

Newark isn't a great representation of the state of New Jersey either. NJ is mostly a rural state with pockets of heavy population density surrounding NYC and Philadelphia.

 

For the most part, the less populated areas here are in red and the most populated areas are in blue. The exception would be the Somerset/Middlesex County area which is far less populated than the areas closer to the big cities yet voted Democrat in the last election.

 

NJ_109th_congressional_districts_shaded_

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I don't agree with that at all. Outside of Manhattan and Brooklyn plenty of vegetation exists.

Newark isn't a great representation of the state of New Jersey either. NJ is mostly a rural state with pockets of heavy population density surrounding NYC and Philadelphia.

So, yes, it does represent what most of the population experiences.

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I don't agree with that at all. Outside of Manhattan and Brooklyn plenty of vegetation exists.

 

Newark isn't a great representation of the state of New Jersey either. NJ is mostly a rural state with pockets of heavy population density surrounding NYC and Philadelphia.

 

For the most part, the less populated areas here are in red and the most populated areas are in blue. The exception would be the Somerset/Middlesex County area which is far less populated than the areas closer to the big cities yet voted Democrat in the last election.

 

NJ_109th_congressional_districts_shaded_

 

You aren't even located in the metro area so why do you try to compare it to the urbanized NE NJ and NYC.

Take a look at a satellite photo of the area and you will see the bigger picture.

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If KNYC has a cool bias due to growth then KLGA, KEWR and KJFK all have warm biases due to being located in concrete jungles. The KEWR sensor is literally right between a runway and the NJ Turnpike.

 

The heat and readings at EWR have been running closer to other nearby stations such as Statend Island, CNJ, NNJ etc.   

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Population wise? Maybe so, area wise? Not so much.

You make it sound like nobody here lives outside of the major populated areas. This isn't Nebraska where you go five miles outside of town and population drops down to nil.

We are discussing weather. Of course it matters more to the population than to empty areas.

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You aren't even located in the metro area so why do you try to compare it to the urbanized NE NJ and NYC.

Who says that I don't live in the metro area?

 

Not all of NE NJ is urbanized either. Certainly most of Passaic County isn't urbanized and a majority of Bergen County isn't urbanized either. Bergan County is one of the most populated in the state.

 

We've been through this 1000000 times. The NYC metro area isn't just comprised of the five boroughs and the immediate surrounding areas.

 

New_York_Metropolitan_Area_Counties_Illu

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So where are these empty areas that you speak of?

Seriously, are you being dense on purpose? Newark is representative of what most people in this subforum experience, because thats where most people live. The "area" doesnt matter, and introducing it into an argument makes zero sense.

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Seriously, are you being dense on purpose? Newark is representative of what most people in this subforum experience, because thats where most people live. The "area" doesnt matter, and introducing it into an argument makes zero sense.

A majority of posters in this sub forum do not live in a city proper.

 

Most people instead live in the suburbs. And for the most part once you get fifteen miles or so outside of NYC the population density goes way down.

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A majority of posters in this sub forum do not live in a city proper.

Most people instead live in the suburbs. And for the most part once you get fifteen miles or so outside of NYC the population density goes way down.

We are discussing newark, not nyc. And uhh? You know new jersey is the most densely populated state, right?

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Where are all the Long Island posters hiding. Suddenly Long Island is part of the concrete jungle also? What about Monmouth County posters? Yeah, Monmouth County is really comparable to Newark....or not.

 

This is the misconception by people from NY that assume NJ consists of the five miles of the Turnpike that runs from Newark to NYC.

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