PB GFI Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php Ugly . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 not all of that is reaching the ground - this is the more accurate radar http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=EWR That doesn't look accurate at all. It show most of the state dry whereas moderate rain has reached into the western half of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 I can't see there being a lot of evap in this air mass, I would imagine the 'fuller' radar picture is pretty accurate for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 We'll see.....short term models still do show our area getting hit hard late tonight around 9-10pm. I still think we get about 1.5" maybe even 2 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 That doesn't look accurate at all. It show most of the state dry whereas moderate rain has reached into the western half of the state. Agreed, I can tell you that right now it's coming down in buckets in Hackettstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 We'll see.....short term models still do show our area getting hit hard late tonight around 9-10pm. I still think we get about 1.5" maybe even 2 Sent from my iPhone It's coming, the 12z NAM looks pretty awful. It has been way too dry the last few weeks, not sure if they did some sort of update to try and correct its wet bias. The HRRR has rain reaching the city before noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 Agreed, I can tell you that right now it's coming down in buckets in Hackettstown. West of the dark blue line is probably where rain is reaching the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 Agreed, I can tell you that right now it's coming down in buckets in Hackettstown. http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=OKX upton reflection better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 The rain approacheth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=OKX upton reflection better Yeah looks to be sitting right around Morristown now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 Doppler radar estimates of 1"+ per hour rates over the DE Water Gap region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 Im still working here in somerset county and its just light rain...gut feeling says this underperforms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 Im still working here in somerset county and its just light rain...gut feeling says this underperforms The heavier echoes are still to your west closer to the Delaware river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 Well HPC has now shifted NNJ into the moderate risk zone for excessive rainfall today. Seems they agree that the models are too dry for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 Yanks is like a wide-eyed kid on Christmas morning today. Enjoy it bud! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 Yanks is like a wide-eyed kid on Christmas morning today. Enjoy it bud! I'm not too excited about today, sure it will come down hard for a few hours tonight but it's not the fire hose deluge that I was picturing a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 I'm not too excited about today, sure it will come down hard for a few hours tonight but it's not the fire hose deluge that I was picturing a week out. If we get a good 1-2" that works for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 It's coming, the 12z NAM looks pretty awful. It has been way too dry the last few weeks, not sure if they did some sort of update to try and correct its wet bias. The HRRR has rain reaching the city before noon. bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 If we get a good 1-2" that works for me. I think that's a pretty reasonable estimate. Upton seems to like basin averages ~1.5". I think places could see up to 3" locally where the best training occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 bust How so? The echoes are building now in the NJ coastal sections, that will swing north within the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...WE HAVE BEEN ESTFING AS WE HAVE BEEN GOING THIS MORNING, BUT THEOVERALL TREND IS TOWARD A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND THEPCPN ACROSS OUR CWA. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINSIN PARTS OF SERN PA AND DELMARVA ALREADY, SO RADAR REPRESENTATIONNOT GIVING IT FULL CREDIT. HRRR AND LATEST NAM ARE NOT AS BULLISHWITH HEAVY RAIN INTO NJ, BUT SEE NO LET UP IN UPSTREAM RADARREPRESENTATION. IT SHOULD BECOME APPARENT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWOIF THEY REALLY ARE CORRECT ABOUT BIFURCATING THE LLJ. WINDS AREGOING TO BE BEARISH AS THERE ARE WAVES ON THE FRONT (WHICH ISALREADY IN THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA). THE ADJUSTMENT OFHEAVIER RAIN IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE FASTEST COSPA AND CONTINUITY.WITH THE WAVE IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA, DONT WANT TO PROGRESS TOOQUICKLY TOWARD THE FORMER SOLUTION JUST YET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 bust LOL so it'll miss by 10 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 How so? The echoes are building now in the NJ coastal sections, that will swing north within the next hour. looks like it has more of a NNW movement on upton radar...it will come, just very slowly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 Both the 12z NAM and GFS have this band as just light rain and then a new band of rain developing from NYC/LI and North/East in the evening/night. Only light rain accumulations for most of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 Both the 12z NAM and GFS have this band as just light rain and then a new band of rain developing from NYC/LI and North/East in the evening/night. Only light rain accumulations for most of NJ. When you compare the radar out of Dover to what the NAM/GFS shows does that look like a good match to you? http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=DOX&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 Radar looks terrible for E NJ. I'd be happy to get 0.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 When you compare the radar out of Dover to what the NAM/GFS shows does that look like a good match to you? http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=DOX&loop=yes Yes. It matches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 When you compare the radar out of Dover to what the NAM/GFS shows does that look like a good match to you? http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=DOX&loop=yes Yes actually. That heavy stuff off Delaware could end up mostly going east of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 Yes actually. That heavy stuff off Delaware could end up mostly going east of the city I disagree, the NAM shows a huge dry slot developing over NJ in the next hour or so due to a splitting of the LLJ. I don't see that happening but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 Light rain has commenced at home per my girlfriend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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