weatherwiz Posted May 1, 2014 Author Share Posted May 1, 2014 Actually looks like developing some sort of cold pool too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 Actually looks like developing some sort of cold pool too? Looks like they are going to miss CT unfortunately.Unless we get some sw line extension Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 1, 2014 Author Share Posted May 1, 2014 Looks like they are going to miss CT unfortunately.Unless we get some sw line extension I doubt it...all the "best" instability is off to our NW and these things are really low topped and very short lived...and have like very little updrafts time. Plus with sun setting any instability in place will quickly vanish. Maybe we can get some storms on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 I doubt it...all the "best" instability is off to our NW and these things are really low topped and very short lived...and have like very little updrafts time. Plus with sun setting any instability in place will quickly vanish. Maybe we can get some storms on Sunday Yeah Sunday seems like a "many trees down" type of setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 1, 2014 Author Share Posted May 1, 2014 Yeah Sunday seems like a "many trees down" type of setup I think small hail/grauple will be more of a potential than wind...not that there won't be gusty winds with any convection. Just wondering how widespread activity is or becomes...obviously moisture is definitely lacking but this s/w has some intense lift associated with it. Also, we're looking at VERY intense MLJ with the nose of the MLJ, which may exceed 100 knots punches right into MA/CT during peak heating times. Lack of moisture and resultant instability will hurt with updrafts not being long lived which also throws a wrench into things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 I think small hail/grauple will be more of a potential than wind...not that there won't be gusty winds with any convection. Just wondering how widespread activity is or becomes...obviously moisture is definitely lacking but this s/w has some intense lift associated with it. Also, we're looking at VERY intense MLJ with the nose of the MLJ, which may exceed 100 knots punches right into MA/CT during peak heating times. Lack of moisture and resultant instability will hurt with updrafts not being long lived which also throws a wrench into things. I dunno. I like the inverted v profile on the soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 1, 2014 Author Share Posted May 1, 2014 I dunno. I like the inverted v profile on the soundings yeah that certainly is a def wind indicator...OTOH it can also be an enhancer for hail generation as well. Hail/wind may be of equal threat really but the issue is there isn't much moisture to work with. Hell, even if dewpoints were like 10F higher (into the mid 50's) we'd be seeing a bit more instability and I would think that would be enough for the possibility of severe hail...500mb temps of near -30C in a convective threat doesn't happen too much around here...hell 700mb temps approach -15C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 2, 2014 Author Share Posted May 2, 2014 line doesn't look too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 2, 2014 Author Share Posted May 2, 2014 0.63'' hail marker near Belchertown, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 2, 2014 Author Share Posted May 2, 2014 guessing perhaps some moisture convergence is really helping things here? perhaps even some vorticity advection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 Wow 2 LOUD cracks of thunder!! Super close lightning strike and pouring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 2, 2014 Author Share Posted May 2, 2014 Wow 2 LOUD cracks of thunder!! NICE!!!!!!! any hail? wondering if there might be some very small hail or something...looked like briefly some 60+ dbz got up to around 15k which may have been just high enough for some very small hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 NICE!!!!!!! any hail? wondering if there might be some very small hail or something...looked like briefly some 60+ dbz got up to around 15k which may have been just high enough for some very small hail Not here, huge drops and a lot of lightning. Sneaky elevated instability I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 2, 2014 Author Share Posted May 2, 2014 Not here, huge drops and a lot of lightning. Sneaky elevated instability I guess An "instability max" right over you...100 J/KG of SBcape and MLcape and 250 J/KG of MUcape with LI values of -1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 An "instability max" right over you...100 J/KG of SBcape and MLcape and 250 J/KG of MUcape with LI values of -1. You can see a little couplet in SRV, I wonder if that might have been a better updraft just to my south that possibly could've produced some hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 A little rain and thunder here. It is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 Dews = thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 2, 2014 Author Share Posted May 2, 2014 You can see a little couplet in SRV, I wonder if that might have been a better updraft just to my south that possibly could've produced some hail. At what tilt? Just looked back and using BOX at 3.4 you can see something but pretty high up...didn't notice anything lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 At what tilt? Just looked back and using BOX at 3.4 you can see something but pretty high up...didn't notice anything lower. Sorry for the crappy graphics, not on my good machine... but you can see the little embedded couplet in the line which equates just to my south... have no idea if any hail occurred but if it did I'd guess it'd be near that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 2, 2014 Author Share Posted May 2, 2014 Sorry for the crappy graphics, not on my good machine... but you can see the little embedded couplet in the line which equates just to my south... have no idea if any hail occurred but if it did I'd guess it'd be near that area. Can definitely see it...and it's right in the general area where the hail marker was flagged...may have happened as the core collapsed...you said you were seeing big raindrops too so it could be possible some small hail was being dropped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 Had a good downpour with thunder and lightning here not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 Some nice flashes with rumbles in the distance, heavy ra. heavy dews = heavy wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 Nice clear skies and a great light show from the storms to my North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 Looks like your countdown to 5/1 worked wiz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 2, 2014 Author Share Posted May 2, 2014 Looks like your countdown to 5/1 worked wiz. Gotta love it...just so many ways we can generate convection and that's the beauty of it...we don't have to have a severe weather outbreak to enjoy it or a threat for severe wx...it's just convection in general...just like in winter even 1-2'' events are fun and enjoyable...you don't need a 6-12'' snowstorm or a blizzard to enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 2, 2014 Author Share Posted May 2, 2014 even a gust front showing up on radar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 even a gust front showing up on radar!yea that's pretty cool,saw lightning off way to my NW just now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 2, 2014 Author Share Posted May 2, 2014 Although I was completely wrong here...I said best chance would be in the early morning with the warm front then again perhaps early afternoon but this happened late evening...didn't see that happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 2, 2014 Author Share Posted May 2, 2014 yea that's pretty cool,saw lightning off way to my NW just now Awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 Thunder and downpours even up here tonight! Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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