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Medium/Long Range thread


famartin

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The completely worthless utterly useless not worth the electric used in the leds to light the screen Eurowx maps paint 4-5" In SEPA including Philly this weekend as blowoff and backwash from the next Boston blizzard bomb . Inverted trough centers on NYC with 7.5"

0z ECM caves to the GFS. Another EUROwx fantasy map in the trash

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The PDO was just so positive this year it overwhelmed the other teleconnections ( even they were"t great but they did OK last year with marginal  positive indexes ) wasting the cold air delivered in this part of the country. Southern New England and north benefited big time with this pattern.  Probably never see the PDO go so positive again. Other teleconnections will finally gang up around March 1 and end this pattern. JMO 

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GFS keeps the day 6/7 overruning threat suppressed while the Euro amps it up and cuts it to the west. Euro did the same thing with the storm today and it folded to the gfs solution. GGEM is kind of in the middle with a good thump ending as light rain solution. Getting all snow is going to be difficult with this system and set up but I think a thump solution is definitely on the table. Think the Euro is too amped for this pattern as well..

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GFS keeps the day 6/7 overruning threat suppressed while the Euro amps it up and cuts it to the west. Euro did the same thing with the storm today and it folded to the gfs solution. GGEM is kind of in the middle with a good thump ending as light rain solution. Getting all snow is going to be difficult with this system and set up but I think a thump solution is definitely on the table. Think the Euro is too amped for this pattern as well..

While this threat is getting very little discussion here (probably due to the overwhelming "we've seen this before, and look what happened" attitude), I agree that this is worth watching.  All solutions from warm cutter to a complete miss to the south are on the table, but there is certainly a chance for this to be a decent (or better) winter storm.

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really going out on a limb there ;) I wonder what our  temperature departure from normal is? does anyone know? would be crazy if we had temps 4-5 below average on the month and end up with below average snowfall(at least philly). 

Last March at UNV we had some crazy negative departure and a trace of snow to show for it.

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