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Snow Bro Banter Thread

ennepe68

By ennepe68,
in Mid Atlantic

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Could not care less. Thanks though.

Your argument is poor. Wanting a model to be good at something it wasn't designed for doesn't make sense. I didn't connect the two.. I'll refollow you but you should at least realize it's not worth siding as you are. A broken clock isn't necessarily useful.
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AlaskaETC

AlaskaETC

Posted
Posted

Your argument is poor. Wanting a model to be good at something it wasn't designed for doesn't make sense. I didn't connect the two.. I'll refollow you but you should at least realize it's not worth siding as you are. A broken clock isn't necessarily useful.

 

I didn't say I wanted the model to be good. I was just expecting scientifically supported facts to back up the arguments Ryan and you had besides the generalist comments about how useless it is because it shows pretty snow maps.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

I didn't say I wanted the model to be good. I was just expecting scientifically supported facts to back up the arguments Ryan and you had besides the generalist comments about how useless it is because it shows pretty snow maps.

 

I think you're just missing background that we didn't rehash. NAM is a non hydrostatic mesoscale model.  It wasn't made to accurately portray a system like we are going to see at this range.  It's good for thunderstorms and stuff.  People act like it did good for the last storm when reality is kind of different. For one it was all over the place until the end as usual.. and once it locked in it was still way too wet. 

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AlainnFocail

AlainnFocail

Posted
Posted

I think you're just missing background that we didn't rehash. NAM is a non hydrostatic mesoscale model. It wasn't made to accurately portray a system like we are going to see at this range. It's good for thunderstorms and stuff. People act like it did good for the last storm when reality is kind of different. For one it was all over the place until the end as usual.. and once it locked in it was still way too wet.

BUT WIKIPEDIA SAYS IT IS REALLY GOOD.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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HECS4DC14

HECS4DC14

Posted
Posted

All hail King NAM!

So far it shows (the most) snow, and (the most) snow wins (hint to non- King Euro if you are listening (might want to start showing lots of snow soon now!)!

So, as it stands, NAM is King, until others follow suit, or overtake!

Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow!

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AlainnFocail

AlainnFocail

Posted
Posted

Everyone off chatting in other places today, or actively making use of their Sundays?

 

I suggested this on CWG too, but I was thinking that we could take a trip up to Provincetown. It is an easy 9 hour drive, has great food and drag shows, and cute bed and breakfasts. We can hunker down and watch the storm roll in and pound us. It will be amazing. I will bring the beer, toilet paper, Rye, and water. 

 

Actual weather stuff:

 

Forecast discussion-

 

BOTH NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL BE IN PLAY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EVENTUALLY THEY WILL PHASE OFFSHORE AND A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW AND WHERE/WHEN PHASING OCCURS WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATIONS ON THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR CWA. AT
THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST PHASING WILL LIKELY OCCUR FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE AND AT A LATITUDE THAT WOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIG
STORM TO DIRECTLY IMPACT OUR CWA BUT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO...LIFT WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
LATE MONDAY NIGHT PARTICULARLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SPREADING
THROUGHOUT THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION ONSET WILL BE SNOW. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY OR IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS WARM
ENOUGH /ESPECIALLY I-95 EAST/ FOR A MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN. EVEN IN
ALL SNOW...IMPACT MAY BE MINIMIZED SOMEWHAT IF THE BULK OF THE SNOW
FALLS DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY DUE TO THE HIGH LATE MARCH SUN
ANGLE UNLESS SNOW WERE TO FALL HEAVILY. IF SNOW ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY EVENING...THEN THESE
TIMES MAY WIND UP HAVING THE MOST IMPACT WITHOUT THE INHIBITING
INFLUENCE OF SOME SOLAR RADIATION MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
OBVIOUSLY THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS EVENT WHICH WILL NEED TO
BE RESOLVED WITH TIME.

PRECIPITATION LIKELY CONTINUES INTO EARLY EVENING TUESDAY...THEN
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PULLING FURTHER AWAY IT ENDS EXCEPT OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHLANDS. FROM A MODEL PERSPECTIVE...HAVE PUT
LEAST EMPHASIS ON THE NAM AND PREFER A GFS/ECMWF/SREFS COMPROMISE.

 

 

They have switched my forecast to all snow, instead of rain transitioning in to snow. At the moment it says 1-2" for Tuesday, without making any predictions for Monday night or Tuesday night. 

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Questsnow

Questsnow

Posted
Posted

Everyone off chatting in other places today, or actively making use of their Sundays?

 

I suggested this on CWG too, but I was thinking that we could take a trip up to Provincetown. It is an easy 9 hour drive, has great food and drag shows, and cute bed and breakfasts. We can hunker down and watch the storm roll in and pound us. It will be amazing. I will bring the beer, toilet paper, Rye, and water. 

 

Actual weather stuff:

 

Forecast discussion-

 

BOTH NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL BE IN PLAY

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EVENTUALLY THEY WILL PHASE OFFSHORE AND A

DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. THE

TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW AND WHERE/WHEN PHASING OCCURS WILL

HAVE SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATIONS ON THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR CWA. AT

THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST PHASING WILL LIKELY OCCUR FAR ENOUGH

OFFSHORE AND AT A LATITUDE THAT WOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIG

STORM TO DIRECTLY IMPACT OUR CWA BUT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO...LIFT WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP

LATE MONDAY NIGHT PARTICULARLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SPREADING

THROUGHOUT THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION ONSET WILL BE SNOW. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF PRECIPITATION

WILL REMAIN SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY OR IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS WARM

ENOUGH /ESPECIALLY I-95 EAST/ FOR A MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN. EVEN IN

ALL SNOW...IMPACT MAY BE MINIMIZED SOMEWHAT IF THE BULK OF THE SNOW

FALLS DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY DUE TO THE HIGH LATE MARCH SUN

ANGLE UNLESS SNOW WERE TO FALL HEAVILY. IF SNOW ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH

TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY EVENING...THEN THESE

TIMES MAY WIND UP HAVING THE MOST IMPACT WITHOUT THE INHIBITING

INFLUENCE OF SOME SOLAR RADIATION MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.

OBVIOUSLY THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS EVENT WHICH WILL NEED TO

BE RESOLVED WITH TIME.

PRECIPITATION LIKELY CONTINUES INTO EARLY EVENING TUESDAY...THEN

WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PULLING FURTHER AWAY IT ENDS EXCEPT OVER THE

WESTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHLANDS. FROM A MODEL PERSPECTIVE...HAVE PUT

LEAST EMPHASIS ON THE NAM AND PREFER A GFS/ECMWF/SREFS COMPROMISE.

 

 

They have switched my forecast to all snow, instead of rain transitioning in to snow. At the moment it says 1-2" for Tuesday, without making any predictions for Monday night or Tuesday night. 

 

I'd be happy with even 1" of snow. In late March, that's awesome!

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