REDMK6GLI Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Trends and pattern is what is important right now and both the GFS and EURO were improvements. I will take that for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Looks like it deepens into at least the low 980's, possibly 970's by hour 168 near Nantucket Island. Okay, now you have my full attention. Quite a few 00z individual members had nearly this exact same solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 That run of the euro looks identical to the Canadian ensemble mean. Unfortunately it is a big miss for western areas. Miller A's always favor eastern areas. We'll have to hope for a track inside the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 950 into the gulf of main…lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 How much QPF for the region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Looks like it deepens into at least the low 980's, possibly 970's by hour 168 near Nantucket Island. Okay, now you have my full attention. Quite a few 00z individual members had nearly this exact same solution. When you said some of the 00z EURO ensembles looked like it made boxing day storm weak i was damn thats gotta be a crazy solution but it is in the envelope of possibilities i suppose with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Gets down to at least the low 960's east of Maine, woof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Of course given that it is late march, storm showing just outside of the BM.....We'd usually say that this thing is coming NW!....But because of how things have turned out recently, it could go even further south. But it really bears watching. Something's gotta give. The lower mid Atlantic is not going to keep getting crushed as we head into spring Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 How much QPF for the region? ~0.25". More east, less west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 How far west does the precip shield go. Just trying to get an idea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 When you said some of the 00z EURO ensembles looked like it made boxing day storm weak i was damn thats gotta be a crazy solution but it is in the envelope of possibilities i suppose with this storm Not comparing this storm to Boxing Day, other than the fact that it was an intense miller A. That storm occurred during the end of a raging negative NAO with strong blocking. I believe Boxing Day was in the low 970's south of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 In the Gulf of Maine it is 964 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 How far west does the precip shield go. Just trying to get an idea... Trenton does well, as does SE PA and southern NJ. No sense on getting wrapped up on a solution that's going to change a bunch of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 How far west does the precip shield go. Just trying to get an idea... dca-bwi-ttn-hfd-orh….still way to early to worry about that…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 954 slamming into nova scotia lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The EURO has been terrible this winter. I wouldn't take too much stock in what it says... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Weatherbell has it at 964 mb at hr. 168 southeast of the Benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Trenton does well, as does SE PA and southern NJ. No sense on getting wrapped up on a solution that's going to change a bunch of times. Yea I'm def. not, When i hear coast I think of the immediate coast, was curious how far west the precip went. Prolly another pointless question, but o well...How are temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The EURO has been terrible this winter. I wouldn't take too much stock in what it says... it's been decent the past 6 weeks though and it's always good on the big events. So I'd pay attention IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Weatherbell shows 2-3 inches of snow across Northern New Jersey. 3 inches in the city, 3-4 inches on Long Island, 4-6 inches in Central Jersey and 6-8 inches in South Jersey. What else is new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Yea I'm def. not, When i hear coast I think of the immediate coast, was curious how far west the precip went. Prolly another pointless question, but o well...How are temps? Very cold for the time of year, minimal precip type issues verbatim on the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 850mb temps are nearly ideal for snow growth, but if the system trends west I'm sure it will bring with it some warm air aloft. In any event, I think a low in the 960's would have quite the dynamic cooling abilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 954 slamming into nova scotia lol Can you imagine the full brunt of a 954 into N.S? 3 feet with 60-80 MPH raging blizzard would probably be a reasonable place to start. just wow. will be interesting to see how this develops in next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Can you imagine the full brunt of a 954 into N.S? 3 feet with 60-80 MPH raging blizzard would probably be a reasonable place to start. just wow. will be interesting to see how this develops in next 48 hours. It's not that uncommon for them, plus they deal with recurving extra-tropical systems every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Euro has a very deep low, because it sandwiched in between strong upper-level jet streaks, to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Look at that wind field, just ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 It's not that uncommon for them, plus they deal with recurving extra-tropical systems every year. True have always checked in on their blizzards as they are classic but a blizzard of the size I described, even for them, would be an HECS., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 You don't want a hit right now so I'll just take the potential, more of a pure coastal this time than sort of the overrunning scenarios with the past two storms that were suppressed. We did well back in January will coastals that were far offshore, hopefully this trends better though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Can you imagine the full brunt of a 954 into N.S? 3 feet with 60-80 MPH raging blizzard would probably be a reasonable place to start. just wow. will be interesting to see how this develops in next 48 hours. February 2004 had something like this. It's far from unheard of for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 February 2004 had something like this. It's far from unheard of for them.They can handle 75mph winds In winter fine. 100mph winds in summer ala Juan was another story.This bigger deeper storm has me worried for a solution more like last week. Big super deep lows this time of year haven't been kind snow wise the last decade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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