REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The SREF and CMC have been playing a hot hand of late. As some have noted and some noted yesterday it all comes down to the consolidation of energy in the southwest US. If the aforementioned models are handling that correctly, this becomes a significant snowstorm setup. If not, we're ripping cirrus. It will be almost impossible to get moisture up here with the compressed height field north of us if the energy ejects in multiple pieces.The 00z CMC run looked pretty good for our area and the GGEM that has also been hot is touting that major snowstorm scenario as well. The trouble start with the EURO/GFS both not wanting any part of it and i know many times this season the EURO has been far from consistent. Touchy situation to say the least john Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Yep. I've seen this 100 x. PP will ignore the current guidance and revert back to what the model once saw Yes the GGEM is a crusher but at 12z today you will only be 3 days out from Hatteras .You are gona need to see the Canadian continue its gung ho look and then have the euro attempt to bring all the energy out. For me bringing out all the energy out is a better situation then some broad based low . The euro ( which could be it's bias ) doesn't bundle the energy but still a concern for me because the ensembles don't either. I not sure when the energy gets on shore but is that the point where the GGEM falls apart or is that where the euro brings the whole piece out. I'm sure lower skill score models will show great solutions and will keep the blind tuned in but one can not dismiss the 2 top globals in agreement here. The Canadian is #2 in terms of accuracy at 5 days and 6 days and it has done amazingly well this winter. This is a difficult one to put a handle on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The SREF and CMC have been playing a hot hand of late. As some have noted and some noted yesterday it all comes down to the consolidation of energy in the southwest US. If the aforementioned models are handling that correctly, this becomes a significant snowstorm setup. If not, we're ripping cirrus. It will be almost impossible to get moisture up here with the compressed height field north of us if the energy ejects in multiple pieces. Pacific system coming the West coast betweeen 96-102hr is has a domino effect on everything upstream. Basically if that doesn't slow down on GFS/ECMWF, this threat dies for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It really is the complete opposite of the last major fail . Euro/gfs showed the storm in this timeframe and the ggem showed a sheared out mess and frontal passage . Now the ggem is giving us a snow storm and euro and gfs say nope. I will be very surprised if the canadian finds a way to beat them again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It really is the complete opposite of the last major fail . Euro/gfs showed the storm in this timeframe and the ggem showed a sheared out mess and frontal passage . Now the ggem is giving us a snow storm and euro and gfs say nope. I will be very surprised if the canadian finds a way to beat them again. Best forecast to give for monday-partly cloudy and cold with a chance of snow at this point. Really is a VERY difficult forecast to pinpoint right now with LOTS of variables. All these models one of them may have the right idea, which one? No one knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The Canadian is #2 in terms of accuracy at 5 days and 6 days and it has done amazingly well this winter. This is a difficult one to put a handle on. GGEM has been impressive a good bit this winter and its nice to see it coming around hopefully more often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 What is amazing is how the Canadian ensemble mean even shows a foot of snow for us. This situation with the models is pretty amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 00z CMC run on SV last night showed the 1.75 inch line touching nassau/suffolk border of LI. Dont know if thats suppressed or not This is one the more interesting forecast situations when the normally reliable Euro is jumping around form run to run and the issue at hand is how much energy is hanging back to the SW. The Canadian could still move south and we would still have a shot at a snow that can accumulate down to the coast. I would just like to see near 3" or more in NYC so it can go over 60" on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Also, when talking accuracy, the Euro and Canadian are WAY ahead of all the others in this range and honestly, the Canadian has just been so darn hot this winter. There really are two groups though when talking accuracy. The Canadian and the Euro, and then all the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 This is one the more interesting forecast situations when the normally reliable Euro is jumping around form run to run and the issue at hand is how much energy is hanging back to the SW. The Canadian could still move south and we would still have a shot at a snow that can accumulate down to the coast. I would just like to see near 3" or more in NYC so it can go over 60" on the season. I was just looking at how rare it is to be this cold in March and see no snow, virtually all of the top 10 coldest Marches had significant snow or one big storm, this month has a legit shot at being close to the top 10 coldest the way its going, the odds of being shutout are historically very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I was just looking at how rare it is to be this cold in March and see no snow, virtually all of the top 10 coldest Marches had significant snow or one big storm, this month has a legit shot at being close to the top 10 coldest the way its going, the odds of being shutout are historically very low. Yeah, I have been saying all month that it would be a miracle if we managed to get through this month without a big snowstorm. Miracles can happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Not very many big hits amongst the 00z Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Not very many big hits amongst the 00z Euro ensembles. No there aren't. The big question is whether it is falling into its bias of leaving energy behind in the southwest or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The CMC has not really even trended sourh, yet. Be interesting to see if it slowly folds or if the EURO trends toward it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 This is one the more interesting forecast situations when the normally reliable Euro is jumping around form run to run and the issue at hand is how much energy is hanging back to the SW. The Canadian could still move south and we would still have a shot at a snow that can accumulate down to the coast. I would just like to see near 3" or more in NYC so it can go over 60" on the season. The GFS trended slower with that lead shortwave over the past two runs. However small of a trend...it is noticeable if you loop through the frames valid around 60 hr on the 6z run (66 hr 00z, 72 hr 18z for comparison). We'll have to see where things go today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 This is one the more interesting forecast situations when the normally reliable Euro is jumping around form run to run and the issue at hand is how much energy is hanging back to the SW. The Canadian could still move south and we would still have a shot at a snow that can accumulate down to the coast. I would just like to see near 3" or more in NYC so it can go over 60" on the season. The season has been progressive, meaning that the energy should be able to push east and not get buried, however it being so late in the winter makes it possible (there are a lot of bowling ball type systems this time of the year as the polar jet lifts north). Also, the seasonal trend has been to have sheared and weak systems. I'd hedge against the storm happening for now, but it's possible it could. I'd like to see some of the other guidance pick up on this today and tomorrow and the GGEM not back off. If by 12z tomorrow we see the energy keep getting buried in the SW, this is probably a dead threat. And as for the DGEX, it could show a bomb over Green Bay for all I care, it's practically an entertainment only model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Hopefully 12z clears some of this up...i would be ok with the gfs se but with the euro too this one is gonna be tough.We need these 2 to show some progress today or by 0z if this is real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The season has been progressive, meaning that the energy should be able to push east and not get buried, however it being so late in the winter makes it possible (there are a lot of bowling ball type systems this time of the year as the polar jet lifts north). Also, the seasonal trend has been to have sheared and weak systems. I'd hedge against the storm happening for now, but it's possible it could. I'd like to see some of the other guidance pick up on this today and tomorrow and the GGEM not back off. If by 12z tomorrow we see the energy keep getting buried in the SW, this is probably a dead threat. And as for the DGEX, it could show a bomb over Green Bay for all I care, it's practically an entertainment only model. I give the DGEX a tiny bit more weight than I usually would with the NAM and SREF mean all strongly agreeing on that upper level evolution which produces the outcome you're looking out on the DGEX. We should have this figured out within 1 day or so. The important interactions happen between 48 and 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 No there aren't. The big question is whether it is falling into its bias of leaving energy behind in the southwest or not. It not just the Euro bias at play. GFS is hanging back just as much energy. It's more about how both models are handling the +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It not just the Euro bias at play. GFS is hanging back just as much energy. It's more about how both models are handling the +PNA. Honestly, I don't even take the GFS seriously past about 3 days. I would just look at the differences here between the Canadian and Euro. Those two are in their own league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It not just the Euro bias at play. GFS is hanging back just as much energy. It's more about how both models are handling the +PNA. That lead energy is way more important anyway. The Euro and GFS have it farther east than the Canadian which has it timed very well with the incoming Pac shortwave so that there is a phase and amplification eastward. The GFS has been trending westward very slowly with that feature which has my interest, but otherwise I would certainly lean towards a more progressive solution given the fast Pac and lack of any blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 SREFS still look good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 SREFS still look good! look at the h5 maps....they dont look good. they are well on their way to showing a squashed system in future runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 look at the h5 maps....they dont look good. they are well on their way to showing a squashed system in future runs Not sure what you're looking at...they more similar to the GGEM with the second piece of energy about ready to phase into the trough at 87 hours.. no split/progressive energy like the GFS or Euro and plenty of spread to the north with the MSLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Not sure what you're looking at...they more similar to the GGEM with the second piece of energy about ready to phase into the trough at 87 hours.. no split/progressive energy like the GFS or Euro and plenty of spread to the north with the MSLP. If you loop the precip probabilities you can see it start to turn up the coast a bit. I like that the SREFS held. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The SREFs look nice but it's far from the period where they can be trusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I am only looking for 2 things today the GGEM to hold serve and the Euro to be a little more consolidated in the SW . The other stuff is just noise to me . Wana build some momentum and continuity between those 2 . My .02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 SREFS still look good! SREFs are wayyyyy out of their useful range imo. Akin to the NAM at 84 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I am only looking for 2 things today the GGEM to hold serve and the Euro to be a little more consolidated in the SW . The other stuff is just noise to me . Wana build some momentum and continuity between those 2 . My .02 I would just like see this out of the GGEM and ECMWF today, too The SREF/NAM/DGEX are part of the same WRF family too. So I would be surprised see them with all an amplified solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I give the DGEX a tiny bit more weight than I usually would with the NAM and SREF mean all strongly agreeing on that upper level evolution which produces the outcome you're looking out on the DGEX. We should have this figured out within 1 day or so. The important interactions happen between 48 and 60 hours. I am pretty sure that the DGEX also was one of the first models (after Canadian) to show a suppressed trend for that storm earlier in the month as a QPF map of the run was what triggered the discussion regarding the Feb 6 2010 virga storm. Not saying the DGEX is amazing (far from it) but there you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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