UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 you should get crushed. Expect the mix line to creep to just south of i 84 I'm getting the feeling I change over to sleet for a brief period...how long that period is will dictate how much my totals get cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Seeing the RGEM north like the NAM is not a good sign. Im quite convinced now that many in this sub forum see a period of sleet. My first call Morristown-Paterson-White Plains - 6" West Milford- Peekskill- Danbury - 8" Sussex - Chester- Newburgh - 10" North of 84 - 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Seeing the RGEM north like the NAM is not a good sign. Im quite convinced now that many in this sub forum see a period of sleet. My first call Morristown-Paterson-White Plains - 6" West Milford- Peekskill- Danbury - 8" Sussex - Chester- Newburgh - 10" North of 84 - 12"+ I'm gonna make the same call but 2" less for each Just gotta a bad feeling about tht mix line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm gonna make the same call but 2" less for each Just gotta a bad feeling about tht mix line I see this as a general 6-12" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm getting the feeling I change over to sleet for a brief period...how/ long that period is will dictate how much my totals get cut So the Euro & Canadian models are out to lunch. AM I hearing we feel the new GFS may be a good model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 So the Euro & Canadian models are out to lunch. AM I hearing we feel the new GFS may be a good model I just don't like the trends.. EVERY run has come North, if the GGEM and euro still hold serve I'll feel better but as of now I think 84 is the battle ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 I just don't like the trends.. EVERY run has come North, if the GGEM and euro still hold serve I'll feel better but as of now I think 84 is the battle ground trend north has slowed or ended. no real big moves the past 12-18 hours imop, when looking at the big picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 trend north has slowed or ended. no real big moves the past 12-18 hours imop, when looking at the big picture I'm glad to see this things slowed down, atleast it won't be an overnight special anymore, looks to be heaviest snows in time for morning commute into the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I just don't like the trends.. EVERY run has come North, if the GGEM and euro still hold serve I'll feel better but as of now I think 84 is the battle ground sampling going into 00z runs tonight should have a better handle on how much energy gets injected from the southwest trough and subsequent amplification. Either way jet dynamics look nice for rapid intensification as the sfc low tracks near/south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm glad to see this things slowed down, atleast it won't be an overnight special anymore, looks to be heaviest snows in time for morning commute into the day All storm tracks are all nearly the same except for the UK model. Cold is deep. I am sitting at 11 F. I would be shocked and wont post for a week if the low jumps 50 miles north on the 0 z runs. Only question is does in shift 50 mile south imop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 All storm tracks are all nearly the same except for the UK model. Cold is deep. I am sitting at 11 F. I would be shocked and wont post for a week if the low jumps 50 miles north on the 0 z runs. Only question is does in shift 50 mile south imop I would be happy with 6" to be honest... It seems we have a model run or 2 that show big snows and the. We're let down when we don't get 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 All storm tracks are all nearly the same except for the UK model. Cold is deep. I am sitting at 11 F. I would be shocked and wont post for a week if the low jumps 50 miles north on the 0 z runs. Only question is does in shift 50 mile south imop You're daring it, aren't you?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 sampling going into 00z runs tonight should have a better handle on how much energy gets injected from the southwest trough and subsequent amplification. Either way jet dynamics look nice for rapid intensification as the sfc low tracks near/south of LI. Assuming no significant further changes, you should be at or above your seasonal snowfall total for 2 of the last 3 years within the first few days of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Assuming no significant further changes, you should be at or above your seasonal snowfall total for 2 of the last 3 years within the first few days of February. Yeah, with the early season events it's easy to forget that we're still above normal for the year. At this point I'm hoping for a south trend with tonights suite just as much as you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Max Potential as per Upton... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Max Potential as per Upton... Those have actually increased since this morning.. I believe most were 9.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Those have actually increased since this morning.. I believe most were 9.0" Yup, they have definitely gone up. Oh the irony lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yup, they have definitely gone up. Oh the irony lol The WAA has trended stronger, if we can stay all snow I really think 12-14 North of rockland is a good range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Well forecasted qpf has increased throughout so naturally the potential for more snow is there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Alright men & women, the NAM & GFS runs will educate us on the storm, lesser the nam, but hey! I am leaving for key west Tuesday for 5 -8 days. Planned to leave sunday, but a storm set in locally. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I see some New England mets posting RPM model runs on twitter and they are noose-worthy for just about everyone south of Albany. Basically 3-6" for most of the region. I'm not sure how great of a model it is (I believe it's a version of the WRF model that WSI runs hourly), but I will say that it consistently showed our area getting shut out of any meaningful snow on Monday night. Not that 3-6" is bad, but when the forecast is 10-14" and we are just coming off of the blizzard disaster, that would be a tough pill to swallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 I see some New England mets posting RPM model runs on twitter and they are noose-worthy for just about everyone south of Albany. Basically 3-6" for most of the region. I'm not sure how great of a model it is (I believe it's a version of the WRF model that WSI runs hourly), but I will say that it consistently showed our area getting shut out of any meaningful snow on Monday night. Not that 3-6" is bad, but when the forecast is 10-14" and we are just coming off of the blizzard disaster, that would be a tough pill to swallow. look anything other than 10 inches in your back yard is a bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Wrf isn't even out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Wrf isn't even out yet I have no ideas what you are talking about. going out for beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This storm oddly reminds me of the February 5th event last year, at least in terms of snowfall distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I have no ideas what you are talking about. going out for beer Someone asked about the short term models.. Rap goes to 18 and HRRR goes to 15 so idk how someone is saying they're way North, sorry I'm at work and typing quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 21z SREF Snowfall Mean for POU is 6.8" lol.. EDIT: Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm under the impression that the 21z data is from the 18z run of the NAM. Shouldn't be any indicator of whats to come for 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 21z SREF Snowfall Mean for POU is 6.8" lol.. Useless model mostly wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Useless model mostly wrong The srefs kept coming in wetter and wetter the closer we got to the blizzard for our area lol including nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 We hold the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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