Storm chaser Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 No way of proving but this storm will follow most of the others this year and be very much like the GFS and maybe even furthur south. I would expect teh Euro to start backing off by Sunday at the latest If the Euro shows a Wrapped up bomb til Sunday that will be for 5 or 6 days straight backing off than would be like a gut punch. Why can't the GFS come closer to the Euro solution instead of vice versa. After last storm I don't trust the GFS at all It teased us with a bomb for 5 days than backed off starting 72 hours before showtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Makes sense, the StormVista maps don't have a great 500mb depiction. Yeah, I like the detail of 500 vort maps on the Wunderground site. Goes show how easy it would be for the energy to sw to keep the trough more pos tilt than the Euro is showing and let the low slip further south and not as deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The Euro handles the ridge out West and PV similarly to the GFS/Ukmet. I expect the Euro will converge to those solutions. I saw no indication thus far that the Euro is even remotely close to caving to a GFS solution, or god forbid, a GGEM or UKMET solution. The Euro is much sharper and amplified with the energy while it's in the Pacific northwest. We might have to wait for the energy to come onshore again and that won't be until Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The best things about rainstorms is no bickering/worrying about r/s lines and little to no disappointments. Rain is still rain at 45 or 35 so there's little fighting going on, but I just hope it's not a weak little wave again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 If the Euro shows a Wrapped up bomb til Sunday that will be for 5 or 6 days straight backing off than would be like a gut punch. Why can't the GFS come closer to the Euro solution instead of vice versa. After last storm I don't trust the GFS at all It teased us with a bomb for 5 days than backed off starting 72 hours before showtime. The Euro and GFS showed an 8"+ snow event here for many runs, for 2-3 days before the last sheared out, crushed storm. Anything can still really happen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I just went back and looked again at the 00z ECWMF ensemble mean. It's very similar to the 12z Euro op except even more northwest and warmer. That's a pretty good argument against a flat solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I just went back and looked again at the 00z ECWMF ensemble mean. It's very similar to the 12z Euro op except even more northwest and warmer. That's a pretty good argument against a flat solution. This far it's not an arguement at all. As we all know to far out to have any meaning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 This far it's not an arguement at all. As we all know to far out to have any meaning The Euro ensembles are about as trustworthy as you will have at day 5-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The Euro ensembles are about as trustworthy as you will have at day 5-6. How did they do last weekend 4 or 5 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 How did they do last weekend 4 or 5 days out? They started moving further south more quickly than the GFS and Euro ops. Needless to say none of the modeling was stellar last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I just went back and looked again at the 00z ECWMF ensemble mean. It's very similar to the 12z Euro op except even more northwest and warmer. That's a pretty good argument against a flat solution. What? How is it similar but further north and warmer at the sAme time? 00z ens have rain to the Berkshire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 What? How is it similar but further north and warmer at the sAme time? 00z ens have rain to the Berkshire The precip shield and features are in a similar spot. The temperature profiles are warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The precip shield and features are in a similar spot. The temperature profiles are warmer. You can't use a ens mean for a preciep shield. Ur post made no sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 You can't use a ens mean for a preciep shield. Ur post made no sense You can if you look at WeatherBell. I pay for both that and StormVista. You need to stop worrying about my posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Euro ensemble mean looking good so far. Hour 120 looks juiced over the Mid-West and Ohio Valley. It's going to be warm, but all I want is for it to continue to show a wrapped up system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Euro ens are going to end up further south then 00z Hr 114 1004 over ky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I wouldn't say the euro ensembles are trustworthy this far out. No models are trustworthy this far out. 5 days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Hr 126 low over mid-Atlantic 1000mb A lot further south then last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Hour 132 is a sub 996 mb low over the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I wouldn't say the euro ensembles are trustworthy this far out. No models are trustworthy this far out. 5 days to go.I agree with this, but I would tend to lean towards ensembles over operational models at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I wouldn't say the euro ensembles are trustworthy this far out. No models are trustworthy this far out. 5 days to go. Check the verification scores of the Euro ensembles versus the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Hr 132 996 over snj. Big hit for far nw areas. Coast and city rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Boggles my mind that a potential event at least 5 days away has 23 pages of replies to it. Y'all are some dedicated mofos! FWIW: I'll be happy with any 1"+ snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Hr 138 992 inside the bm. Huge hit nw areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Hour 138 is a sub 992mb low south of Long Island. Will track from the Delmarva to the benchmark. Looks good, even though it's warmer than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Euro ensembles look amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Nice shift south on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Ensembles show south trend has started, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Hour 138 is a sub 992mb low south of Long Island. Will track from the Delmarva to the benchmark. Looks good, even though it's warmer than the OP.Not looking at temp profiles this far out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 what was the path on the previous 0z ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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