CoraopolisWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Looks like we need another southern trend for Friday night. SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 8 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: Looks like we need another southern trend for Friday night. SMH On the GFS yeah. The others have suppressed garbage sliding harmlessly south. Unless you count the 0z ICON. It showed a direct hit of warning type snow. Point being there’s still hope for a middle ground solution where it snows here, but I’m just tired of watching models with no results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 hours ago, TimB said: And if we’re looking to long-term snow averages at the end of the decade, we’ll already be replacing the 72.1 of 1992-93 with the 17.6 of 2022-23, and now we might be replacing the 76.8 of 1993-94 with like 12-15” in 2023-24. So that’s like a 4” drop in the calculated normals in and of itself, even if the rest of the decade is similar to its 90s counterparts. I think we just need to come to grips with the fact that our location downwind of the Great Lakes would suggest we will be among the fastest warming winter climates on the globe. In winters past, the Great Lakes would get significant ice cover and allow unmodified arctic air to penetrate into the area. Now, they are massive, wide-open heat sinks all year long, taking in the heat of summertime and slowly dissipating that heat all winter long. Under the traditional Koppen climate classification, a subtropical climate was having a mean temperature of -3C or warmer in the coldest season. They didn't like this system for North America, and so it was modified to 0C or warmer. But even under this system, the last 5 years, the coldest mean is 31.8F in January (or basically 0C). Certainly, downtown, the lower elevations and places further south in the metropolitan areas have seen 5 years pass with all months above freezing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 9 hours ago, TimB said: And if we’re looking to long-term snow averages at the end of the decade, we’ll already be replacing the 72.1 of 1992-93 with the 17.6 of 2022-23, and now we might be replacing the 76.8 of 1993-94 with like 12-15” in 2023-24. So that’s like a 4” drop in the calculated normals in and of itself, even if the rest of the decade is similar to its 90s counterparts. This is assuming we don't have any winters with 60"+ in the coming years, and there is no way of knowing that. Next year could be the snowiest ever. It's always possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 We have a long way to go if we have any hope of getting out of the worst 20 or even 10 snowfall seasons. Ignoring the fact that 14 of these top 20 seasons were observed at a different site, we’re looking at 3 of the 5 worst seasons at PIT occurring in the past 5 years unless we get another 10” of snow between now and the end of the season. Still need 5” to even prevent this from being the worst in modern history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 What an epic fail, both short-term and long-term on the models. What once looked like an epic pattern has now just turned to absolute c***. It's gonna take basically a miracle at this point for us to even come close to our seasonal average. All the epic blocking that was showing up on the models has disappeared. Now it looks like even Even in February that we might warm up at the end of the month. We were supposed to be going into the mjo 8,1,2 And now we don't even know if that's gonna come to fruition. At this point we're just chasing A 2018 style storm. I mean, it is what it is. We're running out of time, long-range doesn't look good and even when it does, it just breaks down Good thing I enjoy warm weather and actually take advantage of it. Rant over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: What an epic fail, both short-term and long-term on the models. What once looked like an epic pattern has now just turned to absolute c***. It's gonna take basically a miracle at this point for us to even come close to our seasonal average. All the epic blocking that was showing up on the models has disappeared. Now it looks like even Even in February that we might warm up at the end of the month. We were supposed to be going into the mjo 8,1,2 And now we don't even know if that's gonna come to fruition. At this point we're just chasing A 2018 style storm. I mean, it is what it is. We're running out of time, long-range doesn't look good and even when it does, it just breaks down Good thing I enjoy warm weather and actually take advantage of it. Rant over I'm sorta torn right now between just hoping for a warm early spring and set a top 5 futility season record, or root for a big fluke event. My issue is if it snows again I'll have to start all over in the stages of grief (If you can call it that?) when I feel like now I'm almost to the acceptance stage and ready to move on. Tracking the good looks that were supposed to be setting in right now for almost a month only to have it fall apart is a real gut punch. As much as I enjoy that part of it, eventually I need some ROI to feel like it was worth it. That week in Jan was great, but if thats all she wrote its really been an awful winter. My bar was its gotta be better than last year, whelp maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: I'm sorta torn right now between just hoping for a warm early spring and set a top 5 futility season record, or root for a big fluke event. My issue is if it snows again I'll have to start all over in the stages of grief (If you can call it that?) when I feel like now I'm almost to the acceptance stage and ready to move on. Tracking the good looks that were supposed to be setting in right now for almost a month only to have it fall apart is a real gut punch. As much as I enjoy that part of it, eventually I need some ROI to feel like it was worth it. That week in Jan was great, but if thats all she wrote its really been an awful winter. My bar was its gotta be better than last year, whelp maybe not. And that’s what it boils down to. A top 5 futility season would be a lot easier to stomach if we didn’t have something eerily similar last year, in a totally different ENSO base state. Could I be less invested in this hobby? Of course, we all could. But even if I weren’t obsessively watching models or looking at stats showing historic winter warmth or lack of snow, these seasons have been bad enough that even the casuals have to be aware that these past two winters have been epically bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/13/2024 at 6:24 PM, Ahoff said: This is assuming we don't have any winters with 60"+ in the coming years, and there is no way of knowing that. Next year could be the snowiest ever. It's always possible. That’s fine, we still have 95-96 to replace in the normals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/14/2024 at 9:39 AM, TimB said: We have a long way to go if we have any hope of getting out of the worst 20 or even 10 snowfall seasons. Ignoring the fact that 14 of these top 20 seasons were observed at a different site, we’re looking at 3 of the 5 worst seasons at PIT occurring in the past 5 years unless we get another 10” of snow between now and the end of the season. Still need 5” to even prevent this from being the worst in modern history. One correction to that list. Even ignoring any considerations of the site location, methodology and some data irregularities in the database, the 1879-1880 figure is based on incomplete data [as records don't begin until 1880]. Last winter was #8 on this list among years with sufficient data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Not going to clog up the snow thread, but it’s funny that PIT apparently gusted to 60 at 6:33pm and then a wind advisory was issued 14 minutes later. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I’m guessing the Great Depression would’ve kept us busy enough to not complain about the lack of snow during the early 1930s. Then again…. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Gonna get screwed again up here. Missed the heavy band by 30 miles last storm, gonna miss this on by 30-50 miles again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 7 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said: Gonna get screwed again up here. Missed the heavy band by 30 miles last storm, gonna miss this on by 30-50 miles again. Yeah. South hills is going to do ok but those of us up north are looking not great. I’ll probably get like 2 inches but I can see south hills getting a good 4-6 with the way the band is set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 No cool air in sight, i'm done wishcasting snow. Bring on the Spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said: No cool air in sight, i'm done wishcasting snow. Bring on the Spring! I'm always kinda torn with these types of winters. One part wants to delay Spring because it might be another 9 months before any winter weather returns. The other side is just done with these snow drought winters, and couldn't care less if it ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 Where's the page on the NWS site that has the years of each reporting location. It used to be with various records, but I can't find it now. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 8 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said: Where's the page on the NWS site that has the years of each reporting location. It used to be with various records, but I can't find it now. Thanks Yeah, I was trying to find it. I did locate this page: https://www.weather.gov/pbz/stationhistory But I thought there was a different one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 Based on records I could find, this could end up being the lowest two year snowfall total anyone alive today has ever experienced. (Anyone alive back in 1932 would likely have been very young) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 14 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said: Based on records I could find, this could end up being the lowest two year snowfall total anyone alive today has ever experienced. (Anyone alive back in 1932 would likely have been very young) This can only mean we are due big time for Winter 2024-2025 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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