Heisy Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 More lightning! HRRR shows 11" IMBY! Woohooo!!! How is it for Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noctilucent Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Warrington, Bucks County, PA. 32.3 degrees. Rain with a tad of sleet....AND just a minute ago...Lightning and Thunder. (Thunderslush?) I'm not getting any wind reading....maybe my anemometer is tired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 More lightning! HRRR shows 11" IMBY! Woohooo!!! You need to either post a map or summarize what it says for the rest of the sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 ZR 30F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I think HRRR will adjust another 20 miles NW with that entire band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 West Caln Heavy Sleet only 32f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Heavy sleet on and off Temp 32 Snow compacted down to 9.5, now with sleet back to 10" Nberks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 thanks for posting these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 probably not accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Rain snow line will crash soon.....no worries. The CC shows it moving east slightly now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 thanks for posting these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 probably not accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Forecast to plain rain was never forecasted by the NWS in the Allentown area. Matter of fact its still not in the forecast.. Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 3am, then a slight chance of snow between 3am and 4am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 25. Blustery, with a north wind 17 to 21 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible..I believe Special Weather Statement handled this: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 613 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014 DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ009-010-012>020-026-027-PAZ060>062-070-071- 101>106-140300- NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX- WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE- PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY- EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN... FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK... TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL... MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...LONG BEACH ISLAND... WHARTON STATE FOREST...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON... MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER... KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN... LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN 613 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014 ...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW THIS EVENING... AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MIXING WITH SNOW AND SLEET, BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW LATER THIS EVENING. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW, IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SNOW UNTIL PRECIPITATION ENDS. SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES, WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT. IF DRIVING TONIGHT, BE PREPARED FOR LOWER VISIBILITIES AND SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 sleet/rain mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Bangor Pa Hail. (Ball bearing size, not sleet) 32.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Lightning strike in Toms River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Hopefully this is wrong. IT shows near 20 inches new snow for my town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Guys the HRRR has had a 20 mile SE bias during this whole storm. Cut down its snow totals by 3-5" and adjust it NW 20-25 miles and it will be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Mainly sleet now with snow mixing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Is the total snowfall on the HRRR for the 12 hr. period or for the whole event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 3am, then a slight chance of snow between 3am and 4am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 25. Blustery, with a north wind 17 to 21 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible..I believe Special Weather Statement handled this: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 613 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014 DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ009-010-012>020-026-027-PAZ060>062-070-071- 101>106-140300- NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX- WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE- PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY- EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN... FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK... TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL... MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...LONG BEACH ISLAND... WHARTON STATE FOREST...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON... MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER... KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN... LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN 613 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014 ...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW THIS EVENING... AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MIXING WITH SNOW AND SLEET, BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW LATER THIS EVENING. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW, IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SNOW UNTIL PRECIPITATION ENDS. SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES, WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT. IF DRIVING TONIGHT, BE PREPARED FOR LOWER VISIBILITIES AND SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS. $$ Yes I seen that ..but this was posted AFTER it stopped snowing and was already raining for a few hours ...so they had no choice at that time other then to then mention the rain because it was already raining.. (that was not forecasted at all for this storm) So i remain skeptical for changing back to snow with the 850 low passing so close to the region and warming things up aloft and at the surface ..that by the time the 850 low passes the best precipitation will have already moved thru as rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 RAP is doing a much better job with the storm right now, and it has that heavy band of snow totals the HRRR shows right where it should be, more NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Guys the HRRR has had a 20 mile SE bias during this whole storm. Cut down its snow totals by 3-5" and adjust it NW 20-25 miles and it will be right You are putting alot of stock in this model. If I trim it my 5 inches, it gives me 15 new inches of snow. This can't be accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Lol at the max value. When a model shows 4 feet in 12 hours, it might be a little off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Rain w/some IP mixed in, 32.4F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 rain/sleet 30.4f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 You are putting alot of stock in this model. If I trim it my 5 inches, it gives me 15 new inches of snow. This can't be accurate. lol, he just posted that he thought the model was off in location and to cut the snow totals by 5 inches, and he is putting stock in it? RAP is doing a much better job with the storm right now, and it has that heavy band of snow totals the HRRR shows right where it should be, more NW new RAP or the last one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 23z RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yes I seen that ..but this was posted AFTER it stopped snowing and was already raining for a few hours ...so they had no choice at that time other then to then mention the rain because it was already raining.. (that was not forecasted at all for this storm) So i remain skeptical for changing back to snow with the 850 low passing so close to the region and warming things up aloft and at the surface ..that by the time the 850 low passes the best precipitation will have already moved thru as rain! Point taken. Sitting at 34 / 32 here currently. Precip at doorstep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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