Chattownsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 this is just too close for comfort. it's crazy that we still don't know what to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looking at the sim radar from the 00z NAM, forecast for this hour the precip on it is still 100 miles SW of Chattanooga and Northern Alabama was supposed to be clear at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 3z SREF plume for KTRI: KTYS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM is slightly more moist so far on 06z. Still not sure it's caught on yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the temps are cooperating, going to be more snow on this run of the NAM for everyone. Not by a ton, but more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yep, 2-7 on the NAM out to 48 from the Highland Rim Eastward. NE Tn is the 7, still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 5-7 in knox id say, looking at the clown. pretty big shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Much better run of the NAM than 00z. .2 to .8 qpf from Nashville Eastward. .2 around Nash, .3 highland rim, western Platea, .4 around the eastern Plateau, Western Valley, .5 Eastern Central Valley, higher the further North and East you go. N.Alabama .5+ but there are p-type issues for N.Alabama, Middle TN, Southern Valley at first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here's the clown for the NAM again. Hope it's okay to post these and I know I've posted a bunch of them. I just get too excited. Another model run with higher totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 East Tennessee looks to spend around 12 hours under the comma head. Keep in mind, the NAM still may be underperforming the precip shield, like it's doing now. That run had snow on the Southern Plateau from the get go with rain spreading from Nooga to probably near Knox, quickly changes over to moderate snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChattChaser Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Light snowfall here in north Chattanooga as of 20 minutes ago. I have a friend on the other side of the river that says it isn't...unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 from SE thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That looks a bit overdone compared to all the other clown maps, but probably not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 MRX AFD: .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING A STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN EXACT TRACK OF LOW. THIS SYSTEM HAS DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT. THIS COMBINED WITH A COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL GENERATE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT. AROUND 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH 6 TO 9 EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED ACROSS ALL AREAS BUT THE NORTHERN PLATEAU. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I posted this in banter also, but this said after 1:00 for Knoxville a few hours ago when I last checked it and I think 60% Wednesday Snow, mainly after 10am. High near 36. Northeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90% Mr. Bob, I'm not sure I'd send my daughter off driving if they don't close school like last time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 MRX went with a winter storm watch for everyone but me, Scott and Morgan county in the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 MRX went with a winter storm watch for everyone but me, Scott and Morgan county in the CWA. Gee, where have we seen this before... /sarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Gee, where have we seen this before... /sarcasm The last big event was the WWA for all the area, they left us out of that one too, Scott got 2 inches, I got 2 inches, Morgan, and the Southern part of Scott and Campbell got 3 inches. You guys in the WWA area got WSW totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 0z GGEM snow: 6z NAM snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 MRX must be all in on the 06 NAM, based on WSW criteria and what they said, their totals line up almost exactly with it. Their WSW area pretty much covers every county that 4 inches touches, WSW criteria for them used to seem to be 4 inches in a 24 hour period I think. They are the most tight lipped office regarding things like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm actually pretty amazed that most local WFO are mostly discounting the Euro, especially after the WPC pretty much singled it out as the likely best solution. JKL, in their AFD sang the praises of it's consistency but then went basically with what appears to be a NAM/GFS blend with the caveat that if the Euro is right, they'll have to significantly up snow chances and totals North and West of where they have them now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 MRX must be all in on the 06 NAM, based on WSW criteria and what they said, their totals line up almost exactly with it. Their WSW area pretty much covers every county that 4 inches touches, WSW criteria for them used to seem to be 4 inches in a 24 hour period I think. They are the most tight lipped office regarding things like that. I've noticed up to 3" is a WWA, 3-6" is a WSWatch or Warning, and 2 inches in less than an hour is a Heavy Snow Warning/Advisory. I can't remember exactly, but I think it was 2009 or 2010 where Knoxville picked up a quick 2" in under an hour and a half and a Heavy Snow Warning was posted. Then again, the quick 2" burst Knoxville got (last winter?) during rush hour only had a WWA. And, the 4" we got two weeks ago was only a WWA. It doesn't seem to be very consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 6z RGEM snow at hour 54 (still snowing in east TN) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The winter storm watch outside the mountains is for 3-5 inches. Not sure what I'm looking at now, they didn't bother with updating the SPS for the Plateau. The Watch kicks off at 10 am Wednesday. I still wouldn't be surprised to see the WSW turn into a WWA rather than a Winter Storm Warning for folks not in NE TN/Smokies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 6z GFS snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 wtf is WATE thinking here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Trace to 1 inch is actually my forecast from the NWS basically. It says up to one inch on my point forecast. I'm pretty sure in the case of WATE that Hinkin has a 4 inch cap on all snow forecasts outside of the Smokies unless it's a mega blizzard, then he'll forecast 6-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Did the GFS change? It looks so doesn't it? I'll go find the earlier one. edit: I know it changed, it just seemed to change a lot. 0z GFS Stove posted earlier: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just moved a bit south I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianP Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Saw some good things last night... Sure is quiet now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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