Reb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 total HPC QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Since around 2004 MRX has been very reluctant to issue Winter Storm products outside the mountains. They usually wait until the weather is falling before upgrading. I had 47 inches of snow in 2009-2010 and only 1 winter storm warning that winter with 4 events greater than 5 inches, 3 of which were greater than 8 inches. I got 8 in December 2009 without even getting a WWA until 5 inches were on the ground. Then my power went off for the next 3 days. So I wouldn't base not being under a Watch/Warning as a significant development. We're about 12 hours away from pretty much observational forecasting anyway. Oh yes, I'm very well aware of MRX's biases/tendencies. I recall the Dec. 2009 debacle quite well. They were a bit low on NE TN totals but really missed portions of the Plateau and the central Valley. As I recall, they were convinced the warm nose would penetrate through Greene County and turn everything from there to the west into sleet or liquid. However, there is a new forecaster working the night shift who has thus far been very persistent in issuing lengthy, in-depth discussions. I look forward to reading their thoughts in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Interesting. The latest updated forecast from MRX has dropped our temps through Thursday and took out all mention of rain. Showing all snow from tonight through early Thursday. Chattanooga TN 7 Day Forecast Morristown, TN NWS Weather Forecast Office OVERNIGHT ChanceSnow Low: 28 °F TUESDAY SnowLikely High: 36 °F TUESDAYNIGHT ChanceSnow Low: 30 °F WEDNESDAY Snow High: 38 °F WEDNESDAYNIGHT Snow Low: 29 °F THURSDAY ChanceRain/Snow High: 45 °F THURSDAYNIGHT PartlyCloudy Low: 30 °F FRIDAY Slight ChcShowers High: 47 °F FRIDAYNIGHT Slight ChcShowers Low: 29 °F OvernightA 40 percent chance of snow after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 28. North wind 5 to 10 mph. TuesdaySnow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 36. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Tuesday NightA 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Northeast wind around 5 mph. WednesdaySnow, mainly after 8am. High near 38. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Wednesday NightSnow, mainly before 2am. Low around 29. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. ThursdayA chance of snow before noon, then a slight chance of rain between noon and 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Thursday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not sure WTH happened on the previous post. It was all neat and readable when pasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Canadian shows snow falling over NE Tennessee for 23 hours, including what appears to be 18 hours of moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 There's a good chance it hits East Tennessee and SE KY pretty well. It's a power house on the GGEM. 2MB stronger in North Florida than on the GFS or NAM and 7 mb stronger as it goes up the coast. It also takes a more favorable track along the Gulf Coast, where the GFS has it starting out around 150 miles off shore of the Florida panhandle. I can't see qpf yet though to see how the it responds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Canadian shows snow falling over NE Tennessee for 23 hours, including what appears to be 18 hours of moderate snow. I really think NE Tennessee is going to very well with this storm. All the modeling I've seen looks great up there, GFS a tad light but all in all I think y'all will get a pile of snow. Euro ensembles were absolutely ridiculous for TRI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 00z GFS 00Z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 There's a good chance it hits East Tennessee and SE KY pretty well. It's a power house on the GGEM. 2MB stronger in North Florida than on the GFS or NAM and 7 mb stronger as it goes up the coast. It also takes a more favorable track along the Gulf Coast, where the GFS has it starting out around 150 miles off shore of the Florida panhandle. I can't see qpf yet though to see how the it responds. The clown is almost ready but yeah, looks like a great run. Not as wild as 12z with the westward expansion but good for east TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The clown is almost ready but yeah, looks like a great run. Not as wild as 12z with the westward expansion but good for east TN. It's a lot stronger than 12z. On that run it was throwing snow into East Tennessee at 1003mb off the DelMarVa area. at hour 66. This run it's slower and as you see, 994 at hour 60 off the DelMarVa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 BOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 BOOM Well that escalated quickly! I checked it a little earlier and it was a glancing blow! OMG That looks like the friggin euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just got excited. How accurate is that forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well, even though the Canadian was stronger and the LP took almost the exact same track as 12z. the QPF field seems to be worse. Not sure how that makes sense but that's probably why I'm not a Met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just got excited. How accurate is that forecast? I've seen it pretty dang accurate in the past, but who knows with how models have been lately. It certainly has improved in the past few hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well that escalated quickly! I checked it a little earlier and it was a glancing blow! OMG That looks like the friggin euro! We're all walking away happy under this scenario. +SN at KTRI, SN at KTYS at 23z WED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The deform band just sits right over NE TN forever it seems on the GGEM. Just when you think it will move out it hangs around. Clown maps are only out to 54 and there is still a lot of storm left at that point. Needless to say that totals from this run should be fairly impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChattChaser Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I feel a crush job coming on the Euro for East Tn. Btw, hi all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I feel a crush job coming on the Euro for East Tn. Btw, hi all Howdy! Even cutting 12z totals in half would be awesome for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The GGEM was pretty sparse west of 75 mostly, especially compared to its prior run, on QPF. Which is odd, since as I said, it was slower and stronger that run. Looks like maybe .25-.5 along I-75, with the higher amounts east, the big winner was the NE tip around Johnson County, which was probably .75-1 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChattChaser Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Btw, is it just me, or are the returns in west Tn, N. Miss, N. Al really filling in right now and maybe actually jogging a little north with a slight tilt??? That's the way I'm seeing it right now. If that's the case, I think many will wake up in the morning surprised considering Chattanooga is expecting anything from nothing to an inch at best... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Btw, is it just me, or are the returns in west Tn, N. Miss, N. Al really filling in right now and maybe actually jogging a little north with a slight tilt??? That's the way I'm seeing it right now. If that's the case, I think many will wake up in the morning surprised considering Chattanooga is expecting anything from nothing to an inch at best... That is apart of the 1st wave which is the wave that the NAM/Euro wrongly focused on a few days ago. Looks like there is a advisory out for this first wave for Chattanooga for up to an inch. Wouldn't surprise me if it outperformed just a little bit. It shouldn't get much further north then Chatty though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Honestly, on the 00z NAM simulated radar, precip should be about 150 miles further south than it currently is right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is why I say QPF fields are often underdone by the models. Current radar. 00Z NAM simulated radar for this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 BLAM 0z Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lines up like a more robust version of the GGEM again. I'd take 4-6 and be glad you guys South and East got 8-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianP Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 BLAM 0z Euro! That's way west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 0z Euro is in and it holds serve for the most part. Still showing the most accumulation out of any model. It is so hard to not get excited when the Euro has been showing this for awhile. Clown map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Though that's probably not taking into account the sleet/zr with the massive totals in South Carolina, but this will be the 2000s version of a Georgia/South Carolina/North Carolina Super Storm. That wide spread of a QPF event with so much frozen, that far south is almost unprecedented over those areas. Sadly, we can't get truly pummeled with snow at the same time Charlotte/Columbia do except in very rare cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 BLAM 0z Euro! You're my hero! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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