Ollie Williams Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Models keep hinting at a small potential for light snow for this fri/sat in NC along I-40 northward into S VA so I thought I would give it a shot. I know it's a long shot but worth keeping an eye on. 0z GFS @ 63 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/ImageFourPanel.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_063_200_wnd_ht%7C500_vort_ht%7C1000_500_thick%7C850_temp_ht_s.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=00¶m=200_wnd_ht%7C500_vort_ht%7C1000_500_thick%7C850_temp_ht&fhr=063&group=&scrollx=0&scrolly=51 0z CMC @ 60 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_060.jpg 0z Euro Low pressure moves from S Texas to off the SC/NC coast NWS Blacksburg, VA Forecast Discussion - SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 400 PM EST WEDNESDAY...STILL WATCHING THIS WEEKEND`S COASTAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...COLD AIRLOOKS MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW...HOWEVER A SLIGHTLY MORE INLAND TRACKMAY PUSH A PERIOD OF RAIN...BRIEFLY MIXING WITH SNOW INTO THE VA/NCPIEDMONT STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.IF THE SYSTEM TAKES A MORE INLAND TRACK...THIS COULD TIGHTEN THEPRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLEATLANTIC...POSSIBLY ALLOWING MORE COLDER AIR TO SEEP SOUTH RESULTINGIN MORE SNOW. ATTM...LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY RAIN WITH A LITTLE SNOWMIXING IN ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT. SURFACE TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVEFREEZING AND MARGINAL H85 TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH ACCUMS BASED ONCURRENT FORECASTED TRACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 I'm surprised there is no mention of the latest model runs for THIS Saturday in NC. The moisture is trending MUCH HIGHER for interior parts of NC which could lead to a bit of winter weather (mainly NW NC right now). In fact the 15z SREF really dumps a lot of moisture across the entire SE. Most of it is a very cold rain, but some areas could get lucky on the northern and northwest fringes!! This latest winter pattern reminds me a lot of the epic Jan 2000 ( I think) snowfall for CLT, RAH, GSO, etc. Everybody was focused on another shortwave when the actual storm developed "out of no where." Now, I'm not suggesting another repeat, but sometimes we need to focus on what's in front of our face instead of what we can't see yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 The Euro shows some snow on Saturday for N NC, as well. We're probably talking about T-1", at best, but still, it's something. 2m temperatures aren't even that horrible (33ish). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The title to this thread should be, "A man all Alone". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 NAM was a bit wide right with its latest runs, but the SREF, GFS, and GEM still have a bit of light snow for the Triad Sat. It's still worth watching..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I know this thread is for tomorrow night. But there is two opportunities for snow with tonight included. North GA, W SC,Central NC for tonight light snow/flurries. Again same locations tomorrow. The nam simulated radar has been healthy looking for tomorrow. But not sure on the surface temps. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_048_sim_radar.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_054_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=sim_radar&fhr=054&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=360 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Tonight's threat isn't too great. Bad temps, tiny bit of moisture in the South part of SC.. I'm letting go... really no support from the RAP either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 6z and 12z NAM show good precip over the central/eastern parts of SC/NC, but the 850 line is right at the northern edge of the shield. I am sure the surface is probably too warm. But it's possible for somebody to see some flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 6z and 12z NAM show good precip over the central/eastern parts of SC/NC, but the 850 line is right at the northern edge of the shield. I am sure the surface is probably too warm. But it's possible for somebody to see some flakes. We're close enough now to start looking at current conditions. At 10am RDU has a dew point of 21 with a forecast to fall into the teens. This is crucial, it signifies there will be evaporational cooling. I think at this point we just need the precip to be heavy enough and we may have a little surprise for somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 The title to this thread should be, "A man all Alone". A man all alone with quite a few friends, but thanks for reading. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 314 AM EST THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY...THEN OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE OVER THE CAROLINAS-VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL RESIDE. THIS INVERTED TROUGH MAY DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ON SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH AND CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WARM AIR GETS PUSHED INTO THE AREA AS THE SURFACE REFLECTION DEVELOPS AND A SHORT WAVE GLIDES OVER THE REGION... TOWARDS SOUTHSIDE...PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY MID MORNING. ANOTHER QUESTION MARK COMES INTO PLAY AS A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE DEEPENS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY DRAW COLD AIR IN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING SNOW IN LONGER AND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COASTAL SYSTEM MAY ALSO ROB THE AREA OF MOISTURE...LIMITING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. BOTH THE 00Z GFS/ECM AGREE ON LIGHT PRECIPITATION FALLING SATURDAY. BOTH AGREE ON AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID GETTING SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IF ALL SNOW...WE COULD SEE ABOUT A HALF OF AN INCH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS/FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT TO TWO INCHES ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE 00Z NAM PLACES MORE EMPHASES ON THE COASTAL WAVE...LEAVING THE AREA WITH A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION. I PLACED MORE WEIGHT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TOWARD THE GFS/ECM WITH A POP RANGE FROM 40-60 PERCENT. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE NAM AS OUTLIERS HAVE THEIR MOMENTS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM OUT OF PHASE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 We're close enough now to start looking at current conditions. At 10am RDU has a dew point of 21 with a forecast to fall into the teens. This is crucial, it signifies there will be evaporational cooling. I think at this point we just need the precip to be heavy enough and we may have a little surprise for somebody. Yeah...we'll need a near perfect confluence of events to crowbar this one in. Evaporational cooling, decent precip rates, maximum radiational cooling, early onset of precipitation, etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 We're close enough now to start looking at current conditions. At 10am RDU has a dew point of 21 with a forecast to fall into the teens. This is crucial, it signifies there will be evaporational cooling. I think at this point we just need the precip to be heavy enough and we may have a little surprise for somebody. I agree. Especially since this is coming in late evening temps should have an opportunity to cool some before precip starts falling. But there appears to be growing returns along the Gulf Coast. FWIW Rap and Nam hires does look wetter than the nam. GFS even spits out about .03" around here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 GFS matches up well with the NAM re: the shortwave. The 850 line is north, like usual. It's probably not going to cut it for snow...based on my anticipation of how the precip will line up with the 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 At 48, everyone outside of the mountains and south of the VA boarder are above freezing at 850 with precip incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Much more precip at 54 than the 0z and 6z. But the 850s are still hugging the VA boarder. GSM on the GFS outside of the mountains/boarder counties, where the precip is light. It's been very consistent about this. On to the Canadian..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The only time to trust these models is after the event is over...most times 6 hours before the event there's no clue what's gonna happen. Much less 6 days away.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The only time to trust these models is after the event is over...most times 6 hours before the event there's no clue what's gonna happen. Much less 6 days away.... 2x #banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The 12z Euro appears to drop some light snow across N/NW NC (give or take) on Saturday. It's light (<0.1" QPF), but it's there. 850s are good enough from CLT to RDU and northwestward. The precip shield is pretty expansive north of there, albeit light. Surface temperatures are marginal, but possibly okay (32-34). If there's a warm nose elsewhere than at 850 mb, it might just be rain, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Same disturbance there is coming through N GA,SC,NC later tonight and its alot wetter now than was modeled previously. This alert was generated by the National Weather ServiceEMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network)from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server.ACUS11 KWNS 061810SWOMCDSPC MCD 061809ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-062215-MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0078NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1209 PM CST THU FEB 06 2014AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS...SERN LA...SWRN ALCONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATIONVALID 061809Z - 062215ZSUMMARY...A SHIELD OF WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY MOVEEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.DISCUSSION...A VIGOROUS SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS APPROACHINGTHE LOWER MS VALLEY PER RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS. PRECEDING DCVA ISMODESTLY ENHANCING MID-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION ABOVE A SFC-BASED COLDDOME. IR AND RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY IMPLY A RECENT UPTICK IN SHALLOWCONVECTION OVER SRN LA AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT ATTENDANTTO THE IMPULSE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD OVER SERNLA...FAR SERN MS...AND SWRN AL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.WITH THE 12Z LIX RAOB WET-BULB PROFILE INDICATING DEEP SUB-FREEZINGAIR BENEATH A SHALLOW WARM LAYER BETWEEN H85 AND H7...SLEET ANDPERHAPS SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCEDPRECIPITATION...AFFECTING AREAS FROM NEAR PATTERSON TOWARD BATONROUGE AND THEN EWD TOWARD NEW ORLEANS AND PERHAPS GULFPORT DURINGTHE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WEAK SFC COLD ADVECTION AND SUB-CLOUDEVAPORATION WILL REINFORCE THE COLD DOME...WITH ICE PRECIP PHASESBEING MANIFESTED AT THE SFC. LIQUID-EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION RATESOF 0.03-0.05 INCH/HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTIVITY --SNOWFALL RATES AOB 0.4 INCH/HOUR -- THOUGH SUCH RATES WILL BE BRIEFOWING TO THE FAST MOTION OF THE IMPULSE.FARTHER NORTH INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MS INCLUDING AREAS SOUTH OFJACKSON TOWARD MCCOMB EWD TO THE PINE BELT REGION...HINTS OFCYCLONIC ARCHING OF THE BROADER PRECIP SHIELD INTO THIS REGIONSUGGEST DEFORMATION-ZONE-RELATED ENHANCED ASCENT. THIS IS ALSO WHEREDEEPER COLD AIR EXISTS PER THE 12Z JAN RAOB. SNOW WILL BE MORELIKELY IN THESE AREAS...AND HEAVY SNOW HAS RECENTLY BEEN REPORTEDUPSTREAM IN ALEXANDRIA LA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILLREMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE IMPULSE QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THEREGION...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.3-0.6 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE OVERAN HOUR OR TWO OF DURATION.THE AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE EWD INTO SWRN ALIN TANDEM WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE IMPULSE AFTER 1930-2000Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 FWIW, the RAP is starting to show some QPF now when earlier runs from an hour or two ago had nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTHCAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHCENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SEVERAL THREATS OFWINTER PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.ON SATURDAY...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSSNORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WEST OF INTERSTATE81 AND 77 SATURDAY...WITH A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...ANDFREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 AND 77 ACROSS THEVIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAYBRING ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TO NORTHWEST NORTHCAROLINA AND FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREWILL BE ANOTHER THREAT FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSSTHE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 18z hi res nam for tonight. 2-6 2-7 Not sure on the qpf amounts. R>S for ATL areas and Columbia,SC N/W. But just looking at the simulated radar something would be making its way to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- AS OF 400 PM EST THURSDAY... WATCHING AN UPPER LEVEL (SHORT WAVE) DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST...SKIRTING THE AREA TONIGHT. ALL MODELS SUGGEST ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE THIS EVENING. MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN ADDITION TO GETTING CAUGHT ON THE WINDWARD SIDE (WEST SIDE)OF THE MTNS. WHERE PRECIP DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE SNOW...TEMPERATURES OF -5 TO -8C AT 850 MB SUPPORTING THE FROZEN FORM. MODEL QPF FOR OUR CWA IS .01 OR LESS...SO ONLY EXPECTING TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW. ATTM WILL ENTERTAIN SLIGHT CHC MEASURABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM THE NC HIGH COUNTRY INTO THE NC PIEDMONT...TO ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thekidcurtis Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Where's Brick, snowing in Raleigh/Wake Forest. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I don't see anything here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I live in Wake Forest also and haven't seen anything either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OpAck Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Yep, light snow down here in NE Raleigh (Wake Crossroads) at least for the last 15 mins or so. Probably would've never noticed had the dog not been begging to go out to pee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 There was some flurries in Western NC (and it actually made it down to Asheville), but that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 6z and 12z NAM show good precip over the central/eastern parts of SC/NC, but the 850 line is right at the northern edge of the shield. I am sure the surface is probably too warm. But it's possible for somebody to see some flakes. seeing FLAKES HERE IN ilm , surprisingly ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Ready for round 2? This system is stronger than last night. But most short range models expand the precip shield and rh field in the next several hours. Most continue to indicate light returns till the distrubance moves over E TX,LA,AR then rapid expansion. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southplains.php Holding out hope here for flurries since last night was a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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