Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Leon would never let Ginx down.Feb 1994 massive thaw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I wonder if Ginx will finally give in and admit we have a week of torch and 50's coming up after the 20thYou dropped the 60's off your forecast, good move, so 7days of 50s and no more winter after Wednesday is your call. Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 and as the climate continues to warm that difference will continue to edge northwardMy first car was a 1994 Honda Accord...other than that, I don't personally remember much about that year, as I was 8.It is interesting though that age does seem to have a correlation to the opinion of March as a winter month vs a spring month. I wouldn't completely discount the GW aspect, as Forky alludes to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Regardless of what happens, there will be some potential threats over the next 10 days which hasn't changed. I would think after any thaw we head back to more ridging near AK...just my guess on persistance and long range modeling, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 and as the climate continues to warm that difference will continue to edge northward This winter reminds me of the late 1970s, which I remember, given the intensity of cold esp. in the Midwest when people were talking about global cooling. I do remember a March in the late 1980s, I'm thinking 89 that had a lot of snow and cold here in SNE that had a lot of staying power in a decade that didn't seem to produce much. But I was in college then and like everything from that time, lol, it's a little hazy. Are we talking an upcoming thaw of a few days, week, weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This winter reminds me of the late 1970s, which I remember, given the intensity of cold esp. in the Midwest when people were talking about global cooling. I do remember a March in the late 1980s, I'm thinking 89 that had a lot of snow and cold here in SNE that had a lot of staying power in a decade that didn't seem to produce much. But I was in college then and like everything from that time, lol, it's a little hazy. Are we talking an upcoming thaw of a few days, week, weeks? In NNE that is a relevant question. I believe Hartford averages around 43 for a high to start March, and by the end of March it's mid 50s. Thaw becomes an irrelevant term. Even a cold pattern will have difficulty keeping temps at or below zero. Sincere question for those who remember or have access to the data, did 1994 have any week-long periods of temps at or below freezing in March in CT (widespread)? Or any years since then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 In NNE that is a relevant question. I believe Hartford averages around 43 for a high to start March, and by the end of March it's mid 50s. Thaw becomes an irrelevant term. Even a cold pattern will have difficulty keeping temps at or below zero. Sincere question for those who remember or have access to the data, did 1994 have any week-long periods of temps at or below freezing in March in CT (widespread)? Or any years since then? Agreed. "Thaw" is a relative term. Upper 30s, low 40s here in SNE in March, punctuated by some frozen events is not a thaw to me, but might be in NNE. Just seems like the mets on here are indicating significantly above avg. late this month for some period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Regardless of what happens, there will be some potential threats over the next 10 days which hasn't changed. I would think after any thaw we head back to more ridging near AK...just my guess on persistance and long range modeling,Thank you for your thoughts, my comments are in no way intended to discourage you for discussing what you see. I agree that we could have an exciting next week or two, and we are still in a winter month.My poing was that if we are going to get unseasonably warm weather at the end of this month, then my own interpretation is that a "reload" into March could very well mean terrible spring weather down here as much as it could mean an extension of winter. Temps rise rapidly from the end of February onward down here. So IF it's 35 and raining in CT while NNE gets a foot of snow, the CT folks won't go crying to Scooter saying "but you told us it was going reload and you were wrong." Maybe everyone will get epic cold and piles of snow that last until April, but a -EPO and/or NAO certainly doesn't guarantee it in March, even with precip. It does basically guarantee that it won't be sunny and 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Thank you for your thoughts, my comments are in no way intended to discourage you for discussing what you see. I agree that we could have an exciting next week or two, and we are still in a winter month. My poing was that if we are going to get unseasonably warm weather at the end of this month, then my own interpretation is that a "reload" into March could very well mean terrible spring weather down here as much as it could mean an extension of winter. Temps rise rapidly from the end of February onward down here. So IF it's 35 and raining in CT while NNE gets a foot of snow, the CT folks won't go crying to Scooter saying "but you told us it was going reload and you were wrong." Maybe everyone will get epic cold and piles of snow that last until April, but a -EPO and/or NAO certainly doesn't guarantee it in March, even with precip. It does basically guarantee that it won't be sunny and 60s. Well of course temperatures warm in March, but it's still fairly easy to get snow. Most of us average 9-15" or so for a reason. A reload doesn't necessarily mean a redux to what we went through here...I just think that we may see the GOA trough move away and perhaps a cold shot to start March. It's early speculation...that's my guess. I certainly wouldn't call for epic cold and piles of snow at this stage. So we have tonight's little event..and then perhaps 2 more event until we get into a more milder pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 March of course is not a snow retention month...never was. If you start the month with pack and add ala 1993 the it's good until the final days potentially. But in my many decades of March observation, the only time I saw pack retention was 1960 which featured a huge blizzard 3/3-4 and the following weeks way below normal and in fact actually colder vs February that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 March 01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Since the past several pages have focused on March weather, I created a thread to focus on March weather: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42791-march-general-modelpattern-discussion-thread/ It's barely past the first week of February so plenty of time to round our met winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro ensmebles still torch us around and after 2/20....however, there are signs of a reload in the PAC now at the very end of the ensemble runs for the final few days of February....we'll see if that sticks in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Wonderful week of cold and snow, nice little follow up on the 16 th /17 th, with maybe another one on the 20 th. let's hope the shortening and muting continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 March 01 Lol...forgot that one. 495 and north and west with 30+ can help retain pack... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Wonderful week of cold and snow, nice little follow up on the 16 th /17 th, with maybe another one on the 20 th. let's hope the shortening and muting continue. It's been the opposite of muting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It's been the opposite of muting.More reference to the ten day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just for a its and giggles, 0z GGEM has 3 snowstorms on the board in the next two 9 days, yea that's 40 mm melted equivalent, lolhttp://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Hartford&mod=gemglb&run=00&var=prcp〈=en&map=us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 0z Euro showing a supercutter for D8-9. Shock and thawe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The torch is coming. This is the last cold week until reload. After PDay, we're roasting for at least a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks like we cool off again in the 11-15 day, but the whole pattern evolution after the torch is in question. And yes, it will be a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks like we cool off again in the 11-15 day, but the whole pattern evolution after the torch is in question. And yes, it will be a torch. It doesn't look all that extreme on the EURO which is rewarding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It doesn't look all that extreme on the EURO which is rewarding. You'll be throwing frisbees in shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The torch is coming. This is the last cold week until reload. After PDay, we're roasting for at least a few days. Seems like it holds off till after the 20th Will we melt all the snow is the biggest question in my mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Meanwhile as stated last week...we have a few chances before any mild weather. After Thursday there is a follow up low that for now may target NNE, but one to watch for SNE..especially higher elevations. Perhaps something around the 16-18th too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It looks like right after the Wed nite/Thursday storm..there's a clipper right on it's heels fro Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks like the 6z gfs reloads the cold heading into March. I think with all of that cold in Canada heading into March, that we're no where near done. For snow retention weenies, a day or 2 of 50's won'take away half of what's currently on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You'll be throwing frisbees in shorts.Do you really think so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If we can get 10 on thrusday, 4 more from the follow up clipper we'll have 2ft pack, more in the woods, great snowmobile trails and we could withstand a mini torch. The glacier which is the lower 4-6 inches of snow pack is kinda unreal up here. Been walking on 8 inches of power quite easily because the glacier is so solid. That is what 6 weeks of mostly deepdeep will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Do you really think so? The ensembles were a furnace for a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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